Weinstein Trading and Fading

Monday brought some nice gains with very little stress

I worked for a while over this weekend trying to get Stockfinder to work correctly the way I wanted and it paid off nicely. Most of my gains today was a direct result of stockfinder searches. Other gains where from stocks that were pointed out in the chatroom. Days like today makes me glad to be able to spend my day with others and having extra sets of eyeballs on the market.

My toughest trade by far today (and it was not that difficult) was SWM. It wanted to move higher and higher. It gapped up two days ago and moved up yesterday and today. Its not that rare for a stock to do this but what is rare is for it to open higher on the next day. Taking a step back I actually entered the short with SWM due to the intraday action but right away I noticed that it was something that I wanted to be watching for a short at the close. As it turned out I covered some of the shares near the close for a small gain and kept the rest for an overnight in search of bigger gains.

SWM + 133
LFT + 731
JCP + 319
ELON + 615
DISH + 396 (gap up trade)
BKS + 2095

+ 4292 Day / Week
- 9251 Month
 
Mr Weinstein, would you care to enlighten us to your style of trading and your criteria for entry/choosing stocks?

Many Thanks
 
Pretty slow day today

My carry over from yesterday with SWM went well and I covered it shortly after the bell rang. I could have held and ended up with a larger gain but at about $1 per share gain I was pretty happy and covered.
SWM + 1599
SATS + 2
QGEN + 105

+ 1707 Day
+ 5999 Week
- 7544 Month
 
Masquerade said:
Mr Weinstein, would you care to enlighten us to your style of trading and your criteria for entry/choosing stocks?

Many Thanks
Click to expand...

Hello Masquerade,

As a rule I generally look for stocks that are very overbought and short/fade the move higher much like a MM or specialist does. I try to find the end of a short term trend and the start of a new trend lower. Many will call this reversion to the mean and in some respects this is very true but I don't actually have a mean that I have a goal of hitting.

This type of strategy allows me to sell on the offer and generally buy back on the ask (I usually use fixed profit targets)

I have also traded based on discretion during the year but last week ended that practice totally. over 95% of my losses in terms of dollars is a result of discretionary trading so I would rather sit and be bored than have a losing trade. (you would not guess that it would be hard but at first it is when your used to being in trades all the time)

Best to you and your trading

Robert
 
So how do you determine an overbought stock or do you prefer to use a discretionary method?

I have spoken with cbuster over on ET before and he mentioned mean reversion - are you aware of what he does and are you using something similar? Have you any news on that stock you got screwed over on? I was reading about how they were investigating it and maybe there's a bit of hope for some of those involved.
 
Today started out pretty fast with TOL moving higher

Another good day of trading and I picked off tops very well today. Starting with TOL which I shorted right around the first move of the day in the $23 range and was able to cover for a nice gain about 15 minutes later.
TOL + 697

Then I sat and waited for another signal to pop up and ended trading WX near the HOD and was able to put some size on it. I started really pounded on it after it went above 13.40 and scalped some near the BE and kept some to get full target. It ended up breaking down much further but the trade was a good one regardless and especially so as it was such a small priced stock.
WX + 1771

ADCT + 16

+ 2485 Day
+ 8484 Week
- 5059 Month
 
Masquerade said:
So how do you determine an overbought stock or do you prefer to use a discretionary method?

I have spoken with cbuster over on ET before and he mentioned mean reversion - are you aware of what he does and are you using something similar? Have you any news on that stock you got screwed over on? I was reading about how they were investigating it and maybe there's a bit of hope for some of those involved.
Click to expand...

Hello Masquerade,

I am pretty much mechanical on my trading overbought stocks (especially this week) and while I have done a lot of discretionary trading I have found it to be a net loser for me.

I have not looked at cbusters trading but now that you brought him up I plan on seeing what i can over there to see what he uses.

I took a hit with HAR and I have not really heard any news that is not available on the net. I did call and talk with the SEC but of course they didn't do much beyond take my information and tell me that they are working on the case. I did read on the net that they froze about $5 mil and that they will have an upcoming hearing to see if the SEC can hold the money pending the lawsuit that the SEC brought against several parties. I don't plan on getting any money returned and so if I turn out to be wrong that will be fine : o )

Best to you and your trading

Robert
 
Just two trades today

I also did short the Treasury 30 year Futures 118.50 Sept call option at 11/64s. I may add to this trade if the underlying moves higher tomorrow.

I did not short any of the gap ups I was following at the open as non of them fully qualified for me. My first trade was about an hour into the trading day with ANR and lasted almost an hour until I totally covered. I was able to get a full target gain with it was a very good trade from entry to exit.
ANR + 3090

I also had a trade with LNN today that worked out pretty well. I kept the size pretty small as it was a low volume stock with a larger price tag. I was able to short near the top of the move and held for a nice gain. I spent about an hour in this one as well.
LNN + 622

That was pretty much my whole day trading. I was able to get caught up with the WSJ and some other work that was needed to get done.

+ 3713 Day
+ 12197 Week
- 1346 Month
 
Just one trade today during the open

I traded ANF and that was my one and only trade for the day. Spent the rest of the day doing research and looking at setups.

ANF + 453

+ 453 Day
+ 12650 Week
- 893 Month
 
Pretty slow day today other than the open and the close

I was able to make some lemon-aid out of some lemons from a few months ago. HURN broke out today with a big gap up. I traded HURN to the long side and MRX and PRX to the short side. PRX traded up strongly into the close and I covered some in after hour trading at a loss so that I would not carry over so much overnight.
PRX – 888
MRX + 654
HURN + 3204

+ 2969 Day
+ 5970 Week
+ 5077 Month
 
I had my latest article published on seekingalpha about why I am short the 30 yr bonds.

I been bearish (I am net short some synthetic calls and net short calls in other strike prices) for about a month now and I have talked about being in the trade but never gave the reasons. This was actually cut back in size (still VERY long) so that it would not turn into a "book"

This is one of my longer term trades and unless something changes I intend to keep it going for six or more months. this trade has gone right almost right from the start and is pretty far in the green as of this post

Why I Am Shorting Treasury 30 Year Bonds via Treasury Futures -- Seeking Alpha
 
PRX became a frustrating trade for most of the day

I was glad that I exited as much as I did in afterhours trading last night. I also even had some bids hit that lowered the loss after I posted. When it opened higher today I correctly faded the move and that did bring my average higher but it was not enough and when PRX did move down the first time today it just missed most of my cover bids. It moved back and forth several times but never enough to get me out where I wanted to. I ended up covering much of the short before it finally did fall back down below my Break even point. Frustrating trade all around.
PRX – 1999

RMBS started out great as I sold just about at the very HOD today. It did fall back and retrace its move but missed my covering bids by around 10 cents. I ended up covering into the close for a small gain so that I would not have to hold overnight
RMBS + 128

I rolled over months with the treasury futures today so I booked the gains so far. I would have been willing to hold out for longer but the SEPT put I wrote against the short to hedge became worthless (1/64th on the ask) so I just rolled over and shorted the OCT 30yr 122 call. That did move into the money already today so thats good. The gain with the futures contract was not as good as I would have liked as the hedge stopped working when the put option became junk.
Sep put + 621
Sep fut + 413

- 836 Day
+ 5134 Week
+ 4241 Month
 
Today started out with some nice gaps that I traded

Both TECD and DKS worked out well for me at the open. when I covered those two trades I thought today would be a really good day. I received a short for AIG but due to a combination of being overly aggressive at a point I thought it was breaking down, AIG moving strongly beyond the point I thought it would break down and my unwillingness to hold for it to finally break down turned my day into the red. In the end the signal actually did work well but my confidence level in that AIG would not go further higher as well not sticking it out until AIG did fall ruined the trade. I have gone through this type of trade before but its been over a year that I have traded this signal like today so while I am for undoubtedly frustrated with the outcome I am also of the thought that my risk of further losses was much lower.
AIG – 9298

TECD + 1625

The treasury Sept call option that I was short became close to worthless so I closed that out today as the premium was no longer worth holding overnight. + 105
I scalped the ZB (30 year 122 call option) and booked a gain but still short as of the end of the day today + 293
DKS + 796

I closed out of my SYNA trade near the end of the day when it went under 26 again. This was a covered call trade. I ended up making about + 257 on it beyond what I made by trading it. Very good trade all around.
SYNA SEP – 23
SYNA + 280

- 6220 Day
- 1086 Week
- 1979 Month
 
Today started out pretty good and stayed that way.

I would have liked to have made a larger gain with BCRX as I ended up taking a stop loss to protect the small gains I had and not allow a winner to turn into a loser. BCRX actually hit the profit target by the book but my bids to cover where a little bit more aggressive and I missed by just a few cents of having the bids hit. The price moved higher and I stopped out before it went back to break even. BCRX actually then went on to make new highs so I was glad to be out from that.
BCRX + 88

WCRX started out as a gap up trade and then went higher to give me a short signal so it was underwater most of the day for me. WCRX then went to fall in the final minutes of trading today and I was able to get out pretty much at break even to avoid holding overnight. For a trade that really didn’t go well it turned out ok. As I write this in after hours trading WCRX really fell off the horse and is trading down much further. To bad it couldn’t fall during market hours but oh well.
WCRX + 38

some gap ups today
TLEO + 976
NPD + 199
MELA + 217

+ 1553 Day / week
+ 428 Month
 
Today started out with the usual gap up trades.

I traded several gap ups and they worked out well. I also once again kept my trading size much smaller than last month and I had some clean setups which made for a stress free profitable day with very little pain at any point.

The Treasury is selling a lot of notes this week (record tying amount) and so far so good causing the treasury futures to climb higher. I am still slightly in the green on this trade and will hold.
WCRX + 2041
SVR + 725
HGSI + 585
COCO + 185
BIG + 146
BCRX + 388

+ 4073
+ 5626 Week
+ 4501 Month
 
Today started out pretty fast

then quickly slowed down and I did not have any trades in the afternoon. AIG and HGSI were fun to watch today though. As I write this after the closing bell AIG is still making new highs of the day.

GRMN gave me my only signal today and I traded very small in it. I missed the top by two cents and it didn’t take long to be able to cover for a full target gain. This trade of course would have been really nice had I put a larger short on it but hindsight is 20/20
GRMN + 155

Two other trades today and both gap up trades. While I normally fade stocks moving against me I actually shorted more and more of HGSI today as it moved down during my first ‘whack’ at shorting it. I then covered and when it moved up again I faded the move higher. So I say that HGSI today was an example of trading both styles. Adding to a winner and adding to a loser and both worked out well in both legs.
HGSI + 747
WSM + 402

+ 1305 Day
+ 6931 Week
+ 5806 Month
 
Today started out pretty slow and good

Basically all was fine with a few hundred in gains. I traded AIG gap in the opening and that worked out fine but I also left some offers on with AIG that I forgot about and was not visible on the screen. AIG moved up strongly and I did have a chance to get out with a small loss but I made the mistake of trying to get some of it back. Then it quickly moved against me more and other offers hit and while I tried to trade around it I basically ended up doing what I have a rule not to do. I was scalping AIG although the original entry was not something I intended to do. This is why the small loss is the best one even when it means you have multilple small losses. I didn’t have a reason other than I wanted to get money for being in AIG but by the time I came to my senses it was much too late. Totally poor trading and something a new trader does to destroy their account and something I really know not to do. I was starting to think I was back on track but it appears I have a ways to go.
AIG – 27064

I also Traded OSK today with my B7 signal which is my best and strongest signal. I been trading it very well all year and for the most part is bulletproof. Today I was somewhat taught why I have to use the words “most part”. I did get more aggressive with OSK and put size on right away so once it really moved against me as far as it did I was really underwater. Before that happened though I did book a very small gain and thought I was going to be in great shape. I closed out some OSK and holding over to tomorrow for a retrace with the rest.
OSK – 3297

I have been making several adjustments to my signals in the past few months to make them more “conservative” in the entry. This of course cuts back on many profitable setups but also lowers the amount of trades really moving against me. Going into OSK I was thinking perhaps they were too tight as many trades that I have been in recently would go up to my first entry and then quickly fall off. Basically I was hitting the tops of moves over and over. that was my mental setup to jump into OSK with more shares including bringing back the entry lot size to 400 from 300 and putting the lots closer together. I was thinking i would capture greater gains. After studying OSK and the price action today I did make another adjustment but I am also mindful that changes can effect the overall results negatively even though they appear to be helping in a small sample size.

So it did start out as a good day and I did have several good trades including one with CLNE that was also based on the B8 signal but after the beat up I took with AIG and OSK I kept the size very small with it.
CLNE + 388
BA + 194
JAS + 86
SPR + 204

I closed out my 30 yr Treas short as well today. I still am bearish on the Treasury bonds but I also think I need to reset and shrink after the setbacks I been having. Tommorrow again I will continue with trading smaller size like with CLNE and regroup.

- 29272
- 22341 Week
- 24466 month
 
sorry i have not posted lately. I started taking some classes online and my wife is due with our third son tomorrow so I been trying to get everything done that I need to (not even close yet)

to update:

i ended the month poorly but I have starting back in "training" mode with small amounts of shares and I have a ways to go before I feel I have been reconditioned again.

I have been asked in other forums what my results this year are and I am up over 25K for the year so even though I gave much of what I made this year back I am still seeing light. with four months to go to the end of the year I am still able to have a great year if all goes well.

ok, on to the post for today and thanks to all those reading -

slow day today but gold sure moved higher

natural gas hit seven year lows while gold was stronger today. I did end up trading a couple of gold stocks with modest success.

After carrying over SEPR and watching the news about it last night I went to bed thinking that I probably was not going to take a large loss with it. For one I didn’t have very many shares and secondly the offer put the expected per share price not that much higher my short basis. turns out I was in luck when I woke up and checked on it. It was trading at 22.79 bid and 22.80 ask and I covered at 22.80 with a gain of four cents. Not a big gain but for having a stock short halted and having to hold overnight I felt it was one that I will call a nice winner.

Otherwise it was just another day of trading small and really nothing moving against me strongly either. I did not trade any open gaps although I came close on one or two.

SEPR + 47
IAG + 38
AEM + 109

+ 195 Day
+ 864 Week Month
 
Pretty slow day today

I was able to get a couple of trades and the day went well. I was frustrated with IB and the non ability to short JAZZ when I wanted to. I ended up selling call options instead but the volume is so small and the MM spreads are big enough to drive a truck through. I hope when BATS gets into the option game that they don’t make non MM second class citizens like the rest do. I think it would be great to expand the volume and the marketplace of options by opening up to everyone the ability to have open orders on both sides. Would be great for traders but bad for the insiders so I won’t hold my breath.

gap up

ULTA + 396

SPPI and JAZZ where overbought signals
SPPI + 215
JAZZ sep 7.5 calls + 146

+ 758
+ 1622 Week Month
 
Been some big changes since Friday.

I expanded the trading team with the addition of another trader. I was able to welcome my son Michael Weinstein 8 lbs 3 oz to the trading desk Sunday night and is currently training in on buy-side trading. Both Michael and mom are expected to come home from the hospital today. Needless to say I am still a little tired and just trying to keep it “all together”.

I traded small again today and had a couple of good trades and one that I took a stop with.

COST gave a gap up short signal today and while I could have held over I didn’t want to have one more thing to be thinking about tomorrow AM so I let it go near break even. + 4.46

I had two nice short signals and while I wanted to go larger size I kept the breaks on both for the most part. CDE was such a great setup that I increased the share size a little bit but with risk management as the primary importance.
CDE + 1373
BVN + 880

+ 2258 Day Week
+ 3880 Month
 
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