Weinstein Trading and Fading

Back in my office again today.

I thought I would get more signals today with the overall market being higher but didn't really get much.

I did manage to trade AIG for most of the day and that worked out well. Much better than Friday.

Still short ZN (Tres Futs) but only one contract. After the news that the US budget shortfall was a record amount in June the ZN did fall a bit but I will be holding for a larger gain. I did sell the SEP 116 Put against it as a partial hedge and to earn some time premium for being in the contract.

AIG + 5652

+ 5652 Day / Week
+ 4908 Month
 
Back again in the office and glad to be here.

With the market up again in premarket trading I thought I would get several signals and have a pretty busy day. The day started off with scalping AIG again which is turning into quite the ATM lately.

I did get one signal with HAR and that worked out well. I scalped and traded it and while I didn’t have a huge trade with it the trade was the best single trade in over a week.

MTXX was a quick news scalp and CIT was a quick scalp as well

The short with the Treasury futures continues to go my way. GE was able to bounce higher today again as well which was nice.

MTXX + 67

HAR + 31520

CIT + 167

AIG + 2199

+ 5588 Day
+ 11240 Week
+ 10496 Month
 
Lots of shares today

The nasdaq really moved higher today along with the Dow and SnP and I decided it was a good time to fade the Nas. I did it with both the futures and the EFT QQQQ. Little did I know that we would have one of the strongest moves higher for the year. I ended up taking a stop loss and moving on. I did trade a lot of shares so I guess my broker IB should be happy but I can’t say I was.
QQQQ – 3356
NQ (sept09) + 151

Another trade that appeared to be a winner was AXP. It was upgraded and they issued a press release today sending the shares much higher. while I took a loss with this trade the funny thing is that my twitter price would have at worse broke even. I closed out most of the shares during the last push down during the close and still holding some shares short overnight if my bid does not get hit during after market trading. I went pretty large with AXP as my trading has gone well lately and I raise the number of shares as I go higher and lower after taking losses. As I write this post there is a pretty active AH trading market for AXP so its a real possibility.
AXP – 389 (now flat as I covered in AH )

RVBD was a good trade although it was slow acting.
RVBD + 615

LZ was a quick gap up fade + 235

I covered the INTC 14 Aug puts today. after yesterdays numbers release that moved the price higher the option premium was only about 4 cents on the offer so I felt it was not worth holding on any longer.
INTC aug 14 puts + 161

GE moved up strongly today for the third day in a row bringing my Jul 12 Puts back into the green very nicely. Again wanting to sell into strength. I am still long covered GE.
GE July 12 Puts + 43

Still short covered ZN (US 30 YR) and that trade is going very well. While I have a quick large unbooked gain I intend to hold it longer even after three days in a row of unrealized gains (somewhat unrealized as futures settle daily)

- 2538 Day
+ 8702 Week
+ 7958 Month
 
Today started out well and then was pretty slow until the afternoon

I had a few scalps including WHR that I closed out due to the time of the day near BE. Other than FDX it was an uneventful day. FDX ran up pretty hard but came back some into the close and I covered much of it at a loss. While FDX turned into a loser today I traded it pretty well as my cover bids pretty much hit the bottom of the leg down. The covering bids was to lower my risk profile from carrying overnight even though I feel that the price will be under pressure in the opening tomorrow. As a result I am still holding some shares overnight but at a level that is manageable. In after hours trading the spread has moved to be within my BE point as well. I do have bids to cover at a gain so maybe some of them will get hit in AH trading.
FDX – 1183

STEC was a gap up that became pretty easy to short as it moved higher in the opening. I was able to cover shortly after for a nice gain.
STEC + 1199

PPG was a great trade except I stayed very conservative and didn’t have very many shares. sold almost right at the top and bought near the bottom of the leg.
PPG + 203

ANR + 11

+ 250 Day
+ 8952 Week
+ 8208 Month
 
Mostly a good day to the end of a busy week

My carry over from yesterday with FDX turned out pretty good and in the end it turned into a small but profitable trade(after counting the loss from covering during the close yesterday).
FDX + 1227

AIG + 24
CYT + 104
TEVA + 39
STEC + 47
WL news related long + 434
MOS was a good trade. once the price broke it really went down. I wasn’t there for that but I did get a full profit target from the trade. + 1250

HAR is an overnight short that I also scalped and covered some in the close. Monday will be a test to see if it can move higher for the ninth day after having moved up so much. I am betting it will not but will be ready to walk away and take the hit if it can. – 632

+ 2495 Day
+ 11447 Week
+ 10703 Month
 
Well today was a much better day.

It was pretty slow going for much of the day. I had a nice winner with BCRX thanks to Mad_Badger who is visiting me. I also had another trade that did not work out so well with JDAS and I will carry over some shares overnight.

I shorted 5

SHW – 81
PWRD + 26
KCI + 170
JDAS – 1265
CAT + 891
BCRX + 1549

+ 1291 Day
- 115876 Week
- 105173 Month / Quarter
 
Pretty good day of trading

I was lucky enough to have Mad_Badger here in my office again while I traded and as a result of him I traded a couple of stocks that turned into nice winners. So a big thanks to Mad

Nasdaq has been on fire lately and I joined in with some shorting but was very conservative with entries and size. For the most part I just scalped it with the thought that I was on the less risky side by being short.

I also scalped SBUX a bit but that was not as good as I hoped. Ended up just stopping out for a small gain when it didn�t do what I wanted.
SBUX + 66

OREX + 441
ONXX + 191
NTES + 323
nas futs + 61
JDAS + 141 this was my carryover from yesterday
GNTX + 1044
EBAY + 120 After market fade after earnings report
CSL + 129
ATHR + 104

+ 2624 Day
- 113252 Week
- 102549 Month / Quarter
 
Masquerade said:
Those figures can't be correct Mr Weinstein? You've gone from profit into big loss with no apparent losers.
Click to expand...


07-20-09

My worst day in terms of money (not percentage but pretty close)

I became the victim of a stock scam today in a false rumor of a buyout of HAR. The timing could not have been worse for me as I was short over the weekend and in I was in the office early today to check how the premarket trading was going for HAR. What had happened is that a press release was issued to many news organizations including AMEinfo.com in the Middle East. AMEinfo didn�t do as good of job checking the facts before publishing the press release and google finance picked up on it. this caused the stock to shoot much higher and in fact went over 50% higher while I watched to my horror. I did not see the actual press release but it was read to me. In fact I asked it be read to me a second time as it didnt sound right. My reaction was actually to short more and thats what I did. I did not buy into the news story that is was a real buyout. No other news outlets was carrying the news and if this was real I could only think that perhaps I was actually ahead of the curve with the news story. I started to short more shares but then within the two minutes it went from 26ish to over 35 and I went from highly skeptical of the buyout to fighting for survival of my account. I was put in no choice. I must cover or risk losing my ability to trade. I guess of course that�s what the intent of the scam was. over a million shares traded in pre market and I was a part of that. I could not ignore that if the price kept going higher I could face being wiped out so I walked away. I started to cover and just like most stop losses I was covering at the worst possible time and causing my own losses by having the bids that I did. I then changed direction again and went long. This again turned into a mistake as I found about the worst time to not only cover my short but to start going long. I did not wait around long with my long and covered that very quickly as it did not move higher. About 45 mins to late (totally save me from today) and about 30 mins after I covered HAR gave out a press release saying the rumor was false. This was about 10 mins before the opening bell. I then traded some more HAR to the short side again reversing the long and actually made a few dollars but covered way too soon as I was mentally done with this mess and wanted to just step away from it. i did contact my broker to see about getting the trades busted but the time limit ran out for island and ARCA ruled against it. As the trading day moved on HAR moved lower and lower. It ended up being down about 17% which of course one may conclude that it just added salt to the wound but actually I feel that it offers reasurance to my initial conclusion that the stock was due for a retrace of the move higher.
- 117612 (my worst trade ever in terms of dollars)

I also closed and covered what remained of my LVS holding in my TS account I made about 120 with that trade but not counting it in the stats here.

I received a signal with PWRD and while I traded it I went pretty small size and very conservative with it as i traded and scalped it during the day. Not a big winner but for a trade that really never worked out well in terms of hitting my profit target I did pretty well with it. Ended up holding it most of the day and closed out near the close.
PWRD + 444

For most of the day I dealt with the mental experience of knowing that I had put myself in a situation that allowed this type of loss to occur and how I can best deal with that. The chat room was great in the support that I received and I would like to say thanks. This trade as bad as it was does not wipe me out. It actually doesn�t totally wipe out my gains for the year but did take much of them. For those that want to follow I have gains of a bit over $60,000 for the year so in many ways its not as bad as some are facing during the mid year. I feel like I was able to pick myself off the floor and actually be productive today and make a good trade with PWRD. I think it will be interesting to see how the rest of the week goes. Hopefully the knowledge gained from this experience will make me a better trader in the long run and allow me to find bigger gains going forward.

- 117167 Day / Week
- 106464 Month
 
Wow :( Not nice to get caught up in that sort of speculation. I know a lot of people don't like holding over weekend as there's that element of unpredictability and getting caught in the headlights. But i'm sure you'll get it back + more in no time, better to live to fight another day.
 
Masquerade said:
Wow :( Not nice to get caught up in that sort of speculation. I know a lot of people don't like holding over weekend as there's that element of unpredictability and getting caught in the headlights. But i'm sure you'll get it back + more in no time, better to live to fight another day.
Click to expand...

Hello Masquerade,

Thanks for taking the time to post and your kind words. It was surely a crazy week and its been an adventure to say the least.

I feel looking at it (still maybe to early) now that my real problem was my size of the trade more than holding overnight. I don't plan on allowing myself to be that much at risk again. Will take a lot longer to recover but slow and steady is the course I am setting

Have a great weekend

Best

Robert
 
JAZZ punished me dearly in the opening.

JAZZ didnt work out well at all. – 9734

CI didnt give full target but for a trade that didnt work out it wasn’t bad. covered near the bell so that I would not carry overnight. + 585

WCG was news related earnings release after hours trading. + 385

- 8764 Day
- 106380 Month
 
Masquerade said:
Wow :( Not nice to get caught up in that sort of speculation. I know a lot of people don't like holding over weekend as there's that element of unpredictability and getting caught in the headlights. But i'm sure you'll get it back + more in no time, better to live to fight another day.
Click to expand...

Yes, tought day to be sure.

Plus the impact it has on other trading. I put the breaks on today and went much slower (after JAZZ from yesterday)

Best to you

Robert
 
Interesting day today

I started out the day with ELRN and what I thought was a slow and conservative trade. Then as the stock went critical IB ran out of shares for me to short with while it moved higher without me. I was able to get some more shares to short after the main move was done and I did not press it after that. Just walked away near BE so that I could exit

ELRN + 108

Next trade was WTFC which reported earnings today. After ELRN I kept the size super small and while it do move somewhat higher I just sat keeping my buying power to my side in case it broke above 23. It never made it that high and so I never really put much size on. Was mostly a slow grind both on the way up and the way down. covered and the stock fell a bit more and then turned around and moved up higher again. I did call this one out on twitter and I am glad to say that it was again very near the top. A couple of weeks ago this would have been a very profitable trade as I would have put a lot of size on it near the top of the move but for now I will go slow.

My Treasury short trade along with PEP put options continue to give me an unrealized gain. Tres futs moved down again today due to the record note offering by the tres along with a non record amount of interest in buying it. I am looking at adding to the winner Tres short sometime this week.

Oil moved down big time and the Dollar moved higher against move currencies. Gold did not move down so much and its also strange to see the fixed income move down as much as it did at one point along with oil and the market in general.

WTFC + 134

+ 243 Day
- 106137 Month
 
For the most part it was an uneventful day.

I did trade SYNA to the long side which is unusual for me. SYNA was just pounded today for guiding lower than expected. It did have higher earnings this quarter and the PE is respectable but the street did not like the thought of lower future earnings. Way over done IMHO and I expect a bounce next week. Value investors will be looking at SYNA this weekend and thinking its on sale.(I guess you could say that I am value investing in it as well at this point). You could just feel the panic as the selling went on and on. Big turn over in shares as well.
SYNA – 37

TEN started out pretty good after its run up I shorted near the top. It just didnt want to fall much and I closed out near the close so that I would not have to carry over the weekend.
TEN + 103

AMED was my real winner today. I sold very near the top of the move and it fell hard and fast shortly after. I was even able to get more than target on the gain so it was pretty much text book on how I like to trade.
AMED + 1636

Treasury futures came back strong today. this was on top of dollar weakness and for most of the day a stronger market and higher oil. Very strange and it looked like something would have to give. In the end the market lost its gains and in after hours trading is about even. I am still short the 30 yr futs but have given up some of the gains as I wait out the option hedge to have greater time decay.

+ 1702 Day
- 101242 Month
+ 75768 year
 
Pretty good day today

The dollar fell out of bed today sending gold and oil higher. Oil moved up over $2 bringing it over 71 and it was only about a week ago that there was talk of sub $60 oil due to stockpiles adding up. as a result my short in the 30 yr futs went back into the strong positive again after the 30 yr rates went down on Friday. Still holding waiting for the time premium to run out.

My carryover long from Friday with SYNA worked out well. I really like this stock and while it has some fleas (what stock doesnt) I am holding some for a longer term gain. Its not very often I like being long but this one I feel is on sale and I partially hedged my holdings by writing calls against it.
SYNA + 1117

I had a couple of nice signals today but kept my size very small and stayed conservative.
OSK + 1183
CTRP + 1078

Ended up just scalping HURN to the short side after my short took a stop loss to protect the gain. + 24

+ 3404 Day / week / Month
 
Today was a hurry up and wait kind of day

I had several trades today and for the most part they worked out well. I stayed small and was hitting the tops pretty well. I did have a trade in regular hours trading (I also had an after hours trade) that really moved against me but didn’t get to crazy. TDG is normally a pretty low volume stock that reported good earnings. It moved up strongly today and I started shorting it a bit early in relation to the move. TDG did finally fall back and I covered much of the trade near BE when time was running out in the day. I did want to get more than just BE so I am carrying overnight the rest.

WYNN + 425
TRW + 1147
TDG + 171 (still short)
HOT + 507
BKD + 676

In afterhours trading I shorted WFMI after their earnings report. I thought I had waiting for the bulk of the move to be over but I ended up still being a little early and it never retraced enough to get the target gain. Still short as I write this and expect to hold overnight. As its up over 13% and i would trade this at the open at this price anyway I am somewhat comfortable with the hold. The latest numbers on the short interest show its heavily shorted so I am thinking there is some risk to the hold. The news is out though and this has the pattern of topping out on the good news IMHO so all in all I still expect to get a nice gain and may even see it before the AH trading closes up tonight. Someone is showing 8K shares at 28 as I write this on the bid so that’s interesting. Very big bid to be showing at this hour in trading. I have also seen some 5K bids earlier get eaten up so it may be a real buyer.

My new longer hold with SYNA is doing well and about where I expected it to be today. That in itself is good and will just sit on it.

+ 2928 Day
+ 6332 Week / Month
 
Another day of scalping and another day of losses.

Once again I was schooled in why I should not scalp stocks. I looked at AIG being up over 40% and thought I would be able to scalp it for 5-10 cents a pop as it was moving real well. Then it moved higher and instead of getting out right away I waited until the worst time to get out with stop losses. There are so many ways to lose money in the market and it seems at times I go out to look for them. One good thing is that many of the holes in my trading has been plugged up and while I do have gains most of the time scalping stocks (including a few hundred with AIG at one point today) I will just pass on trying to scalp stocks in the future. This will free up a lot of time and hopefully will improve my PnL at the end of the year.
AIG – 22800

WFMI was my hold over from AH trading yesterday. It didn’t work out all that well and took a hit with it and closed out in early trading.
WFMI – 3828

TDG was my signal hold over from yesterday that I made some gains with but wanted to hold for greater gains on some of the trade. It didn’t give me much either and so I closed it out pretty early in the day.
TDG + 174

So all in all it was a pretty ugly day. I will once again be now shifting into a lower gear and trade smaller amounts of shares to protect capital as well as limit trades to signals.

- 26454 Day
- 20122 Week / Month
 
Today turned out to be better than expected.

Especially more so as I really dialed down the volume of my trades. Oil traded above 72 today and the market in general was down other than a brief amount at the open . Perhaps those listening to and following Jim Cramer last night on CNBC with his usual market comments where able to buy right at the top. I know that sounds very critical and while my sample size is pretty small it seems like his calls do move markets but perhaps not in the way the viewers would prefer if they are entering into a trade.

I made no discretionary trades today and stayed with the dog ear playbook. That as usual worked out well and provided some very nice gains. The quick pop higher during the open followed by a reversal fall in the market setup a perfect overall market for me and I was able to take advantage of it.

My tres futs trade continues to do well along with SYNA and PEP.

URBN + 905
MELI + 2228
MAC + 884
CLR + 206
AGO + 360

+ 4584 Day
- 15538 Week / Month
 
End of another week and it turned into a pretty good day.

I had several trades including a nice one with CBS. spent a lot of time with JCP as it was very strong today. I booked some gains with JCP and faded the last move higher at the end of the day. I will be looking for a retrace Monday.
The other holdings are all in the positive so while it was a tough week at least its ending well.
MEG + 226
JCP + 307
CBS + 1173
AGO + 222

MAR was a trade off an old signal that didnt get full target but at least showed a gain + 65

+ 1995 Day
- 13543 Week / Month
 
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