Pat494
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Rodrigo Campos, 5:02, Saturday 1 October 2011
NEW YORK (Xetra: A0DKRK - news) (Reuters) - Global (Chicago Options: ^RGITRUSD - news) stocks closed their worst quarter in nearly three years on Friday on nagging concerns about the world economy and the lack of a credible solution to Europe (Chicago Options: ^REURTRUSD - news) 's debt crisis.
The euro and most commodity prices also fell as investors' search for safety drove up U.S. government bonds and the dollar.
Adding to a string of global data that has crushed growth-related assets in the past three months, China's manufacturing sector contracted for a third straight month in September while German retail sales slid at their sharpest pace in more than four years.
An unexpected rise in euro-zone inflation for September also moderated talk that the European Central Bank would cut interest rates. Still, the euro fell sharply to close its worst quarter against the U.S. dollar since mid 2010.
"The combination of sovereign debt crisis, a slowing economy and really what appears to be ineffective leadership in Europe has led to this decline, and we expect that to continue to play out in the fourth quarter," said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington.
U.S. stocks fell, closing their worst quarter since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in late 2008 with sharp declines.
The MSCI All Country World Index slumped 18 percent for the quarter, with a drop of 2.3 percent on Friday. It lost roughly $5.29 trillion in market capitalisation in the quarter, according to Thomson Reuters Datastream.
On Friday, the Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI - news) industrial average dropped 240.60 points, or 2.16 percent, to 10,913.38. The S&P 500 fell 28.98 points, or 2.50 percent, to 1,131.42. The Nasdaq Composite slid 65.36 points, or 2.63 percent, to 2,415.40.
U.S. crude oil prices fell 4.1 percent on Friday, down more than 17 percent in the quarter. Copper, a key industrial metal that is a proxy for growth expectations, was down 25.8 percent over the last three months.
"There is a lot of fear that GDP growth is going to slow down, or it's not going to be as fast as consensus estimates assume," said Adam Krejcik, an analyst at Roth Capital in Newport Beach, California. "Generally speaking, there is a lot of fear out there, just a crisis of confidence."
Mining (Euronext: SMIG.NX - news) stocks were among the worst performers, hit by the news of slowing growth in China, the world's second-largest economy and an engine of global growth.
EURO OFF, BONDS FLY AMID THE GLOOM
The euro slipped versus the U.S. dollar and posted its biggest monthly drop in nearly a year, weighed down by the lack of a visible solution to the euro zone's deepening debt troubles.
The single currency fell to a low of $1.3384 and was last at $1.3392, down 1.5 percent for the day. For the month of September, the euro lost 6.6 percent, its weakest performance since November (Berlin: NBXB.BE - news) 2010.
In contrast, a gauge of the U.S. dollar against major currencies rose 0.9 percent.
A boost to the euro after Germany's parliament approved new powers for the euro-zone bailout fund proved fleeting after the data on the slump in German retail sales in August.
Leaders in Germany's ruling coalition said they opposed moves to increase states' liabilities to the bailout fund, keeping alive concerns that Europe will not be able to do enough to prevent the crisis from spreading.
The deepening economic gloom has prompted investors to slash bets on risky assets for most of the quarter that ended Friday.
The retreat continued to push safe-haven U.S. Treasury debt prices higher on Friday, with longer-maturity bonds posting their best quarter since the final period of 2008.
U.S. Treasuries held steady at higher price levels after the New York Fed announced the initial schedule for its $400 billion bond program, known as Operation Twist.
The benchmark 10-year note was last up 25/32 in price to yield 1.9172 percent, down from 2.00 percent late on Thursday.
The 30-year bond jumped 3-3/32 in price to yield 2.917 percent, down from 3.06 percent.
(Additional reporting by Karen Brettell, Wanfeng Zhou and Edward Krudy; Editing by Leslie Adler, Jan Paschal and Dan Grebler)
-
Copyright © 2011 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved
NEW YORK (Xetra: A0DKRK - news) (Reuters) - Global (Chicago Options: ^RGITRUSD - news) stocks closed their worst quarter in nearly three years on Friday on nagging concerns about the world economy and the lack of a credible solution to Europe (Chicago Options: ^REURTRUSD - news) 's debt crisis.
The euro and most commodity prices also fell as investors' search for safety drove up U.S. government bonds and the dollar.
Adding to a string of global data that has crushed growth-related assets in the past three months, China's manufacturing sector contracted for a third straight month in September while German retail sales slid at their sharpest pace in more than four years.
An unexpected rise in euro-zone inflation for September also moderated talk that the European Central Bank would cut interest rates. Still, the euro fell sharply to close its worst quarter against the U.S. dollar since mid 2010.
"The combination of sovereign debt crisis, a slowing economy and really what appears to be ineffective leadership in Europe has led to this decline, and we expect that to continue to play out in the fourth quarter," said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington.
U.S. stocks fell, closing their worst quarter since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in late 2008 with sharp declines.
The MSCI All Country World Index slumped 18 percent for the quarter, with a drop of 2.3 percent on Friday. It lost roughly $5.29 trillion in market capitalisation in the quarter, according to Thomson Reuters Datastream.
On Friday, the Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI - news) industrial average dropped 240.60 points, or 2.16 percent, to 10,913.38. The S&P 500 fell 28.98 points, or 2.50 percent, to 1,131.42. The Nasdaq Composite slid 65.36 points, or 2.63 percent, to 2,415.40.
U.S. crude oil prices fell 4.1 percent on Friday, down more than 17 percent in the quarter. Copper, a key industrial metal that is a proxy for growth expectations, was down 25.8 percent over the last three months.
"There is a lot of fear that GDP growth is going to slow down, or it's not going to be as fast as consensus estimates assume," said Adam Krejcik, an analyst at Roth Capital in Newport Beach, California. "Generally speaking, there is a lot of fear out there, just a crisis of confidence."
Mining (Euronext: SMIG.NX - news) stocks were among the worst performers, hit by the news of slowing growth in China, the world's second-largest economy and an engine of global growth.
EURO OFF, BONDS FLY AMID THE GLOOM
The euro slipped versus the U.S. dollar and posted its biggest monthly drop in nearly a year, weighed down by the lack of a visible solution to the euro zone's deepening debt troubles.
The single currency fell to a low of $1.3384 and was last at $1.3392, down 1.5 percent for the day. For the month of September, the euro lost 6.6 percent, its weakest performance since November (Berlin: NBXB.BE - news) 2010.
In contrast, a gauge of the U.S. dollar against major currencies rose 0.9 percent.
A boost to the euro after Germany's parliament approved new powers for the euro-zone bailout fund proved fleeting after the data on the slump in German retail sales in August.
Leaders in Germany's ruling coalition said they opposed moves to increase states' liabilities to the bailout fund, keeping alive concerns that Europe will not be able to do enough to prevent the crisis from spreading.
The deepening economic gloom has prompted investors to slash bets on risky assets for most of the quarter that ended Friday.
The retreat continued to push safe-haven U.S. Treasury debt prices higher on Friday, with longer-maturity bonds posting their best quarter since the final period of 2008.
U.S. Treasuries held steady at higher price levels after the New York Fed announced the initial schedule for its $400 billion bond program, known as Operation Twist.
The benchmark 10-year note was last up 25/32 in price to yield 1.9172 percent, down from 2.00 percent late on Thursday.
The 30-year bond jumped 3-3/32 in price to yield 2.917 percent, down from 3.06 percent.
(Additional reporting by Karen Brettell, Wanfeng Zhou and Edward Krudy; Editing by Leslie Adler, Jan Paschal and Dan Grebler)
-
Copyright © 2011 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved
wackypete2
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Friday is NFP day. Could wreak havoc on some of the calls here!!
Peter
Friday is NFP day. Could wreak havoc on some of the calls here!!
Peter
wackypete2
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robster970
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1080 for me this week
Atilla
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Very ambitious
Peter
I reckon 1100 will hold and then we'll see a bounce...
As for NFP days - I heard one analyst say, look here we may well have 9% unemployment but that means 91% of US is working. That's a lot of good production
Coming up to Xmas and new year... bounce is virtually pencilled in as a precondition to anything else that may well happen in next 6 months.
As for technics - I see strong support since the 8th of August in line with lows of Mar 09. Support however, has now become resistance. I like round numbers so
1250 for me please Pat.
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Atilla
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Hi Pat,
Really greatful you keeping this up and was wondering if you have any interesting statistics for us in terms of pips won lost etc. Is this system making money?
I honestly think you have a gold mine here. Will be placing some more live bets this quarter based on your weekly summaries.
Great stuff.
Pat494
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Thanks guys
French President Nicolas Sarkozy will meet German Chancellor Angela Merkel Oct. 9 as European officials begin debating a new phase in their efforts to prevent a Greek default.
There’s “no credible alternative” to channeling aid to Greece, Sarkozy said Sept. 30 after meeting Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou in Paris.
His remarks signal the fight over an expansion of Europe’s bailout tool kit that will follow the enactment in coming weeks of the upgraded 440 billion-euro ($594 billion) European Financial Stability Facility. Euro finance chiefs in the new week will discuss accelerating enactment of a permanent rescue fund that provides more capital and a way of managing defaults.
“The failure of Greece would be the failure of all of Europe,” Sarkozy told reporters. “Remember in 2008, when the U.S. let Lehman Brothers fail, the global financial system paid the price. For both economic reasons and moral reasons, we can’t let Greece fail.”
Sarkozy said he will travel to Berlin to meet Merkel to discuss speeding the economic integration of the euro region.
The two leaders will meet on Oct. 9, said a person with knowledge of the plan, who declined to be identified because the date hasn’t been formally announced.
I hope it's not just 2 peacocks blowing off, 'cos it looks awfully like the band is playing while the Titanic goes down
fingers crossed
French President Nicolas Sarkozy will meet German Chancellor Angela Merkel Oct. 9 as European officials begin debating a new phase in their efforts to prevent a Greek default.
There’s “no credible alternative” to channeling aid to Greece, Sarkozy said Sept. 30 after meeting Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou in Paris.
His remarks signal the fight over an expansion of Europe’s bailout tool kit that will follow the enactment in coming weeks of the upgraded 440 billion-euro ($594 billion) European Financial Stability Facility. Euro finance chiefs in the new week will discuss accelerating enactment of a permanent rescue fund that provides more capital and a way of managing defaults.
“The failure of Greece would be the failure of all of Europe,” Sarkozy told reporters. “Remember in 2008, when the U.S. let Lehman Brothers fail, the global financial system paid the price. For both economic reasons and moral reasons, we can’t let Greece fail.”
Sarkozy said he will travel to Berlin to meet Merkel to discuss speeding the economic integration of the euro region.
The two leaders will meet on Oct. 9, said a person with knowledge of the plan, who declined to be identified because the date hasn’t been formally announced.
I hope it's not just 2 peacocks blowing off, 'cos it looks awfully like the band is playing while the Titanic goes down
fingers crossed
Pat494
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Hi Pat,
Really greatful you keeping this up and was wondering if you have any interesting statistics for us in terms of pips won lost etc. Is this system making money?
I honestly think you have a gold mine here. Will be placing some more live bets this quarter based on your weekly summaries.
Great stuff.
eeeeerm I'll have a look-see
Atilla
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US pumped trillions in to their economy and saved it.
EU will pump trillions in to their economy to save it.
China & India in due course will do the same. 2018 is a date in my head for some reason but I'll be damned if I can fathom why? Did somebody say the Chinese like number 8? :cheesy:
Pat494
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Looks like a Freudian slip to me - 8 = one fat lady
oh and about the stats - um errrrr have had a look but let's just say its all a bit of fun. That which glistens is not necessarily gold, if you see what I mean.?
:whistling
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Atilla
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Ok thanks Pat. Not what I was expecting but next quarter I'll start crunching the numbers see if anything consistent comes up.
Many thanks
robster970
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I'm being dim Pat - how have you worked those numbers out?
Pat494
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Hi Rob
It is the money made or lost on the week, from friday's close to the next friday's close.
But one has to get the direction right to be plus the amount. Hope that clears it up ?
Obviously with targets and stops in real life it would have been different.
