Weekly forecast for S&P 500 cash 2011

[robster970]

As long as I'm ahead of Pete, I don't feel so bad!

 

[Pat494]

FINANCIALS: THE ACHILLES' HEEL

Financials, worth more than 13 percent of the S&P 500 and the second-most influential group behind technology stocks, have been subjected to drastic cuts in earnings estimates.

"That's obviously the Achilles' heel of the market," said Robbert Van Batenburg, head of equity research at Louis Capital in New York. "Investment banking is probably going to be very moribund, bank lending is still not existing, and there are no gains to be booked at all."

Banks (Euronext: SBK.NX - news) are also suffering from worries about possible write-downs of euro-zone debt and less profitable lending due to the U.S. Federal Reserve's new measures to lower longer-term interest rates.

Financial institutions (NasdaqGS: FISI - news) ' shares have been dragged lower in recent days on renewed fears of exposure to European debt. Credit-default swaps, a measure of the cost of insurance against default on long-term debt, have been climbing.

"The wild card here is really the banks. That's really where the earnings for the S&P have been kind of jerked around in the last couple years," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., in San Francisco.

Insurers are also very susceptible to a lower-rate environment, while energy and consumer discretionary sectors are vulnerable to see-sawing commodity prices and damaged confidence.

For the country's biggest insurers, the Fed's "Operation Twist," designed to stimulate credit for consumers and businesses, could threaten earnings for years to come. The problem is returns on insurers' investment portfolios can't keep pace with the obligations they have accumulated from torrid sales of annuities and life policies.

 

[Pat494]

Could this chart be relevent ?
I reckon up is a probability barring disasters
SO 1180

 

[Atilla]

For Week Ending Friday 23rd Sept 2011

Name.............Call.........Direction.......Podi um .........sub Total……………Total

Gaffs1964………..1180…………..1……………...….0…………….……..1……… … … … .…..15
Pat494……………..1166……..…..1…………….…….2…………………….3…………… .… . ....15
wackypete2.…….1226………….…0……….…….……0……….………..…0…………. … … …….13
robster970……….1252……………0………….….……0…………………….0………….. … …. ....12
Atilla………………..1204…………..0……………….….0…………………….0…………… … … … ..11
dpinpon...........1170..........1................1 .. ..............2....................11
Isatrader…………..1250.….…….0……………….….0…………………….0………… … …. … ….7
Av…………………….1204…….…….0…………………...0…………………….0………… . .. …. ….6
Rathcoole exile..0000..........0................0........... . . ..0.....................5
dc2000............1121...........1.................3.................4...................5
debrox............1247..........1.................0. ................1....................5
Wt av………….....1206.………...0…….…….……….0………………..….0…… … .… … …… .4
Tim3..............0000..........0................. 0 . ...............0..... .............3
tomekinv.........0000..………...0…………………..0……………………..0 … ………… ….…..1
DonStar..........1222.5..........0................. 0. . ............0....................0

Great pick to dc2000. Started late but racing up the board ! I think DonStar may have his charts upside down ? Would have had a perfect score otherwise !
Last week this week of the quarter, so dwell on it a bit folks
Anyway good luck for next week !!

Pat you short changing me?

Should I not get une puan for getting direction right?

 

[dc2000]

As long as I'm ahead of Pete, I don't feel so bad!

as long as I get head I dont feel so bad!

 

[Pat494]

Pat you short changing me?

Should I not get une puan for getting direction right?

Um certainly looks like it - sorry usual ****-up this end
( gotta win somehow but)

hopefully right now

 

[dc2000]

1143 for me this week please

 

[Atilla]

1089 please Pat.

 

[dpinpon]

I went fully long into this weekend, expecting a bounce starting off next week. Im thinking will be a short lived though, so 1075. Thanks.

 

[Gaffs1964]

I'm long for this week, 1188 with crossed pinkies!

good luck all

 

[isatrader]

I'm feeling negative this week. My charts look like they might bounce towards 1150 and then sell off again. The p&F chart shows strong volume support at between 1050 to 1100.

So 1076 please Pat

 

[robster970]

1190 - I'm with Gaffs on the long side this week.

 

[dpinpon]

I went fully long into this weekend, expecting a bounce starting off next week. Im thinking will be a short lived though, so 1075. Thanks.

Fully out of the market, locked some pretty good bucks in.

 

[Pat494]

As long as I'm ahead of the average I don't feel so bad!

ps: Pat, you need to fix this line in that last post "For Week Ending Friday 16th September at 1216.01"

Waiting until Sunday night to pick in case any weekend news comes out. Any small tidbits or rumors causes wild swings these days.

Peter

You still alive Pete ?

 

[Pat494]

average = 1134
wt average = 1142

up = 5
down = 4

highest = 1190
lowest = 1075

The KING of this quarter's index pickers will be decided this week. So fingers crossed !

 

[wackypete2]

You still alive Pete ?

Yes, still here! I got involved with something last night and forgot to make a call
1155 for me.
Since it's late it'll only count if I'm wrong :whistling

Peter

 

[dpinpon]

Fully out of the market, locked some pretty good bucks in.

Sorry for the on and off comments, went long again and hope for a short squeeze, who the duck cares if my bet on the board is utterly wrong, the thing is to make dough here.
Good afternoon all.

 

[wackypete2]

Sorry for the on and off comments, went long again and hope for a short squeeze, who the duck cares if my bet on the board is utterly wrong, the thing is to make dough here.
Good afternoon all.

Most of us aren't actually making the week-long trades. It's just for some fun. Congrats on the profits

Peter

 

[Pat494]

For Week Ending Friday 30th Sept 2011 at 1131.4

Name........Call.........Points.......Direction.......Podi um ........sub Total……………Total

Atilla………..1089…………..12............1……………….….3…………………….4…………… … … ….16
Gaffs1964..1188…………..15............0……………...….0…………….……...0……… … … .…..15
Pat494……..1180……..…..15..............0……………….0…………………....0…………… .… .....15
wackypete2.1155………….13..............0………….……0……….………..….0………… . … … ….13
dpinpon......1075..........11...............1.............1 ..................2..................13
robster970….1190……………12............0………….….….0…………………….0……... … …. ....12
Isatrader…….1076.….…....7.............1……………….….2…………………….3………… … … ….10
Av……………….1134…….…...7.............0………………...0……………………0………..… . .. … ….7
Wt av…….....1142………......5...........0…….…….……..0………………..…..0…… … .….…… ..5
dc2000.........1143...........5............0............... 0.................0..................5
Rathcoole exile..0000.........5............0................0................0..................5
debrox............0000.........4............ 0. ..............0................0..................4
Tim3..............0000..........2............0................ 0 . .............0... .............2
tomekinv.........0000..……...1..............0…………………..0……………….. 0 … ……… ….…..1

So the grand winner of the 3rd quarter is.........(drum roll) Atilla. A very well done to you sir

:clap:

 

[robster970]

Relatively close quarter for the old hands looking at the scores