Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders

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dealer911 said:
Hi superdrive.. I just trade outrights. Sometimes I spread between DAX and FTSE or Nasdaq and S&P if theres a strong story in one of the companies in the INDEX. Mainly outrights with strict stop loss policy.. always get a bit nervous if there are too many people on my side of the market which is why i check that paddy power page to see how people are betting.. I am mainly an event driven trader though but I use technicals to try and time trades and manage my risk!.. how about you ?
Click to expand...
Hi D911,
Still experimenting with various methods not there yet!
I am one of WS's grateful students and learning about support/resistance/trendlines/major index component variables etc. I can now see the light at the end of the tunnel 🙂
Previously thought I could spread between DAX/FTSE(futures) intraday, but just don't know how i.e. not sure when to take entry exit signals, tried bollinger bands/KC, but limited currently by platform limitations in charting the realtime spread. Waiting for NinjaTrader 7 to do it.
Rgds
 
Second income trader said:
Where's your stop on this London Lad ;-)
Click to expand...

Hey SIT. Stop is at 5255. 35 points risk with a target of 45 points. Althought, may exit at 5200, if shows reasonable signs of support there. Alternatively, could just wait for the market to keep going up (like its on weetabix) and PING see my stop loss hit. 😢

How you doing btw? up for social on 4th?
 
SuperDriveGuy said:
Hi D911,
Still experimenting with various methods not there yet!
I am one of WS's grateful students and learning about support/resistance/trendlines/major index component variables etc. I can now see the light at the end of the tunnel 🙂
Previously thought I could spread between DAX/FTSE(futures) intraday, but just don't know how i.e. not sure when to take entry exit signals, tried bollinger bands/KC, but limited currently by platform limitations in charting the realtime spread. Waiting for NinjaTrader 7 to do it.
Rgds
Click to expand...
It's a tough game spreading between indices!.. sounds easy and less risky but you often end up with 2 headaches instead of 1! I have studied technicals for years (still learning though!) but make most decissions on fundementals.. Just because a spread widens doesnt mean it will narrow again.. i need to know what is driving the the spread wider before I can trade on it.. dont get me wrong though i REALLY value technical analysis..it is the only way to manage your risk in my opinion!
 
Yes doing good thanks, I can't make Fri 4 Dec, already out, is that a definite date? I'd be up for a meet any other time.

Cheers mate.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Second income trader View Post
Where's your stop on this London Lad ;-)
Hey SIT. Stop is at 5255. 35 points risk with a target of 45 points. Althought, may exit at 5200, if shows reasonable signs of support there. Alternatively, could just wait for the market to keep going up (like its on weetabix) and PING see my stop loss hit.

How you doing btw? up for social on 4th?
 
You know what's bad guys? We are all short, and the market hasn't even started to move. I still think it would be logical to see the gap closed in the US, but that Paddy thing is a bit worrying to say the least.
 
I dont want to spook you all with that paddy thing.. it is not that reliable. if it was i'd be alot richer!..got to be agile in this game though!
 
dealer911 said:
It's a tough game spreading between indices!.. sounds easy and less risky but you often end up with 2 headaches instead of 1! I have studied technicals for years (still learning though!) but make most decissions on fundementals.. Just because a spread widens doesnt mean it will narrow again.. i need to know what is driving the the spread wider before I can trade on it.. dont get me wrong though i REALLY value technical analysis..it is the only way to manage your risk in my opinion!
Click to expand...

Hi D911,
Good to know that you have many years of experience on Spreading. Don't want to clutter up WS's thread so Sorry in advance for the digression, but I am hoping someone will learn from another rookies mindset(veteran please correct me!)

http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=%3D%27AX%20Z9-DT%27%20-%20%28%27Z%20Z9-EEI%27*1.12%29&o=&a=V%3A1&z=800x550&d=HIGH&b=LINE&st=
The intraday spread betweeb the FTSE/DAX is always in a range, the range broadens/narrows slowly over days. My idea is to catch the spikes for Shorts/Longs. Sounds easy enough, but if one can chart this realtime, then I think there is a possible trading stratgey there. Futuresource do a platform but its too expensive over USD 500 pm for 1 exchange, and I need two. I am waiting for NinjaTrader7 which will let me chart the spread at tick level(I hope) to be able to catch the spikes/troughs.

You are right about wanting to know whats causing the aberration, which is what I am learning in general from WS, this will enable one to enter at the near the top/bottom of the spike/trough as opposed to the spike/trough continuing in becoming a bigger spike/trough. That's when one has to deal with the 2 headaches instead of one, as you mentioned.

Regards,
 
SuperDriveGuy said:
Hi D911,
Good to know that you have many years of experience on Spreading. Don't want to clutter up WS's thread so Sorry in advance for the digression, but I am hoping someone will learn from another rookies mindset(veteran please correct me!)

http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=%3D%27AX%20Z9-DT%27%20-%20%28%27Z%20Z9-EEI%27*1.12%29&o=&a=V%3A1&z=800x550&d=HIGH&b=LINE&st=
The intraday spread betweeb the FTSE/DAX is always in a range, the range broadens/narrows slowly over days. My idea is to catch the spikes for Shorts/Longs. Sounds easy enough, but if one can chart this realtime, then I think there is a possible trading stratgey there. Futuresource do a platform but its too expensive over USD 500 pm for 1 exchange, and I need two. I am waiting for NinjaTrader7 which will let me chart the spread at tick level(I hope) to be able to catch the spikes/troughs.

You are right about wanting to know whats causing the aberration, which is what I am learning in general from WS, this will enable one to enter at the near the top/bottom of the spike/trough as opposed to the spike/trough continuing in becoming a bigger spike/trough. That's when one has to deal with the 2 headaches instead of one, as you mentioned.

Regards,
Click to expand...
give it a go.. would be interested to hear how you get on and what problems you come up against!.. on the fundementals just bear in mind that the spread will be driven by a few factors.. firstly currency.. 1 is priced in EUR the other in GBP.. you will need to factor this relationship in. The next thing is the sector break down of the indices..FTSE is energy and bank heavy while the DAX is mainly manufacturing.. If you are going to trade the spread intra day best to check how those sectors performed overnight and take that into account... have a look at the relationship between dax/ftse as far back as you can.. you may find something that works short term (3 months) but that could just be down to sector performence.. still you could make alot of $$ if you find a strategy that works even for 3 months so best of luck.. maybe we should start a new thread for spread trading (not to be confused with spread betting!)
 
SuperDriveGuy said:
Hi D911,
Good to know that you have many years of experience on Spreading. Don't want to clutter up WS's thread so Sorry in advance for the digression, but I am hoping someone will learn from another rookies mindset(veteran please correct me!)
Click to expand...

Don't be silly my friend, this is not my blog.

This is everyone's blog, so please feel free to discuss trading strategies as it could be of interest to us all

thank you
 
Could be 100% are right!.. I think looking at the crowds position on paddy is very useful but only in conjunction with other indicators (whatever T.A method you feel works best for you)... also we dont know how many people are actually trading through paddy.. could be just 1!!... would love to find a reliable way to have a look at market consensus though.. looking at the short interest in some u.s markets can help http://bit.ly/xlk24 shows short interest in power shares (power shares replicate the nasdaq).. you can see that the shorts increased by only 0.40% (this is not high).. if you see the short interest jump high (50-100%) then you know the market is short.. again this is not a 100% reliable indicator.. would love to find one.. i bet goldmans know everyones positions!!
 
dentist007 said:
sabre
p/f of the candle chart you posted.
Click to expand...



Looks like a breakout when you post it like that. IVe not looked at the markets today but seems very positive off the back of a flakey dollar. Is there any consequences building in that

Hurricane something or other approaching the mainland?

Also are we approaching prior resistance at 108 or so?, Im told volume is dropping on this rise which is another reason for caution I guess


Thanks for the comments on the trend pic, I wasnt sure but it led the way up not down!


Longer term - http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/08/business/economy/08stra.html?_r=2&ref=business
 
wallstreet1928 said:
Don't be silly my friend, this is not my blog.

This is everyone's blog, so please feel free to discuss trading strategies as it could be of interest to us all

thank you
Click to expand...

Thanks WS.
Thank D911,

I will start a new thread once I have all the tools in place i.e. NT7 for the charting etc. Will post a link here for all those interested. Your input will be much appreciated.

Rgds
 
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