Dentalfloss
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eurodollar...going sideways.i think
Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders
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Dentalfloss
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eurodollar seems to be forming a mini top aswell as cable
needs to break below 1.4540 area first/highest arrow.potential target is the lower arrow.although price is coiling also.above 1.4620 negates this
any ideas from anyone..??
fxe euro etf
15 min data
needs to break below 1.4540 area first/highest arrow.potential target is the lower arrow.although price is coiling also.above 1.4620 negates this
any ideas from anyone..??
fxe euro etf
15 min data
Dentalfloss
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article in the telegraph saying the chinese dont want the dollar trashed
Dentalfloss
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dollar breaking out /yen
daily data
daily data
Dentalfloss
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a closer look at the upward break against the yen
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Dentalfloss
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dollar strength...stock market weakness ??
or is it vice versa.??
i never know which one.can someone help me.thanks
options expiry ..is it this week..?? let me know
or is it vice versa.??
i never know which one.can someone help me.thanks
options expiry ..is it this week..?? let me know
Dentalfloss
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oil at res in arange
daily data
daily data
Dentalfloss
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gold.
gld etf.breaking out
30 min data
gld etf.breaking out
30 min data
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Dentalfloss
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conclusions....
well it seems the dollar will call the shots for the time being....imho
oil not a big influence
gold riding the dollar trashing...if it carries on
please let me know if you think i am wong.i am happy for any criticism
well it seems the dollar will call the shots for the time being....imho
oil not a big influence
gold riding the dollar trashing...if it carries on
please let me know if you think i am wong.i am happy for any criticism
wallstreet1928
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dollar up = market weakness
BUT..............there is always an anomaly
FRIDAY was an anomaly
YouTube - Market Technical Analysis & Setups - Oil Drops Hard Taking Markets Slowly Lower..Dollar Remains Weak
BUT..............there is always an anomaly
FRIDAY was an anomaly
YouTube - Market Technical Analysis & Setups - Oil Drops Hard Taking Markets Slowly Lower..Dollar Remains Weak
wallstreet1928
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Black Gold
After spiking to 72.9, crude oil tumbled to as low as 68.8. The October contract plunged -3.9% to settle at 69.12 Friday, leaving this week's gain to +1.2% only. The black gold's decline Friday was accompanied by the dollar's weakness and strong US economic data. These were in contrary to the usual inverse relationship between commodities and USD.
Crude oil started the week with strong rally but ended it with a slump. We believe the reversal was not only due to profit-taking but also a delayed reaction to the industry news/data released during the week.
Both the industry-sponsored API and the US Energy Department reported huge draw in crude oil inventory but surprising increase in gasoline and distillate stockpiles. Although decline in crude inventory positive, surges in fuel storage should have more than offset bullishness.
Gasoline stockpile rose +2.1 mmb last week to 207 mmb. This had not only come in contrary to consensus of a draw but also halted the 6 consecutive weekly declines. In fact, we believe further increase in stockpile will follow in coming months due to the normal shoulder season in the 4th quarter. Distillate stockpile gained for the 3rd consecutive week. Since 3Q09, inventory has risen for 8 out of 10 weeks. As winter comes, demand for heating oil should increase but this may not be the case this year. Meteorologists suggested the possibility of El Nino which may bring a warmer-than-expected winter in the Northern Hemisphere this year.
OPEC concluded September's meeting and announced to keep production quotas unchanged Wednesday. Apparently, the meeting was a non-event as the outcome was widely anticipated. However, comments from member countries, especially Saudi Arabia, suggested OPEC's goal to tighten stock level has been dropped.
After the meeting, Saudi Arabia's oil minister Ali al-Naimi commented that 'we are enjoying a good, fair price' and 'Inventories are irrelevant, they can be 70 days... It has no bearing on price'. This was compared with the comment in May that industry-held stockpiles in developed nations needed to be brought down to the equivalent of about 52 to 54 days worth of consumption, from 62 days. Concerning compliance, Ali al-Naimi did not see the need to put pressure on overproducing members as 'people are complying anyway, 70% compliance is great'.
Obviously, the members were satisfied with the current price level and Saudi Arabia explicitly mentioned that the current 68-73 level is 'going to be there for a while'. Giving the OPEC's significance in affect oil price, we do believe that the current price level can hold in the medium term. The members will increase output should oil price increases. When price drops, say below 60, large producers such as Saudi can reduce supplies, thereby limiting the fall. In this way, crude oil price will consolidate for some time, given global economy improves in a gradual but uncertain manner.
After spiking to 72.9, crude oil tumbled to as low as 68.8. The October contract plunged -3.9% to settle at 69.12 Friday, leaving this week's gain to +1.2% only. The black gold's decline Friday was accompanied by the dollar's weakness and strong US economic data. These were in contrary to the usual inverse relationship between commodities and USD.
Crude oil started the week with strong rally but ended it with a slump. We believe the reversal was not only due to profit-taking but also a delayed reaction to the industry news/data released during the week.
Both the industry-sponsored API and the US Energy Department reported huge draw in crude oil inventory but surprising increase in gasoline and distillate stockpiles. Although decline in crude inventory positive, surges in fuel storage should have more than offset bullishness.
Gasoline stockpile rose +2.1 mmb last week to 207 mmb. This had not only come in contrary to consensus of a draw but also halted the 6 consecutive weekly declines. In fact, we believe further increase in stockpile will follow in coming months due to the normal shoulder season in the 4th quarter. Distillate stockpile gained for the 3rd consecutive week. Since 3Q09, inventory has risen for 8 out of 10 weeks. As winter comes, demand for heating oil should increase but this may not be the case this year. Meteorologists suggested the possibility of El Nino which may bring a warmer-than-expected winter in the Northern Hemisphere this year.
OPEC concluded September's meeting and announced to keep production quotas unchanged Wednesday. Apparently, the meeting was a non-event as the outcome was widely anticipated. However, comments from member countries, especially Saudi Arabia, suggested OPEC's goal to tighten stock level has been dropped.
After the meeting, Saudi Arabia's oil minister Ali al-Naimi commented that 'we are enjoying a good, fair price' and 'Inventories are irrelevant, they can be 70 days... It has no bearing on price'. This was compared with the comment in May that industry-held stockpiles in developed nations needed to be brought down to the equivalent of about 52 to 54 days worth of consumption, from 62 days. Concerning compliance, Ali al-Naimi did not see the need to put pressure on overproducing members as 'people are complying anyway, 70% compliance is great'.
Obviously, the members were satisfied with the current price level and Saudi Arabia explicitly mentioned that the current 68-73 level is 'going to be there for a while'. Giving the OPEC's significance in affect oil price, we do believe that the current price level can hold in the medium term. The members will increase output should oil price increases. When price drops, say below 60, large producers such as Saudi can reduce supplies, thereby limiting the fall. In this way, crude oil price will consolidate for some time, given global economy improves in a gradual but uncertain manner.
Dentalfloss
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ws... you will be up early for ramadan
wake us all up early if there is weakness in asia overnight
wake us all up early if there is weakness in asia overnight
wallstreet1928
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yes indeed Dentist........break of dawn!
I will certainly alert everyone
I will post chart of Shanghai and Nikkei
wallstreet1928
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Nice charts chelski
I'm looking at teh same trend lines
I'm looking at teh same trend lines
wallstreet1928
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US OIL
KEY LEVEL $69
Bias definitely on downside as geater probability of an oversold Dollar bounce which could force oil below $68. Oil has been unable to trade above $72.25 even with the Dollar falling last week, therefore it is fundamentally weak.
EURO has been unable to get past the 1.4620 level and has formed a good resistance level, sell off in the EURO will almost certainly cause weakness in oil as they both trade in tandem.
< $69 ............WE GO TO $68 - $67.7 .................if Dollar bounces then we go below $68 with force
> $69 ........... up side target of $69.5 , $70, 70.4
If we get to $70.5 then I will certainly open up a short position
KEY LEVEL $69
Bias definitely on downside as geater probability of an oversold Dollar bounce which could force oil below $68. Oil has been unable to trade above $72.25 even with the Dollar falling last week, therefore it is fundamentally weak.
EURO has been unable to get past the 1.4620 level and has formed a good resistance level, sell off in the EURO will almost certainly cause weakness in oil as they both trade in tandem.
< $69 ............WE GO TO $68 - $67.7 .................if Dollar bounces then we go below $68 with force
> $69 ........... up side target of $69.5 , $70, 70.4
If we get to $70.5 then I will certainly open up a short position
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wallstreet1928
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dr.blix
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i think we'll drop to 4900 over the next 3 days, rally over 5000 through september, followed by a large correction in the first week of october.
that's my 'mystic meg' nonsense anyway.
the analysis behind this? tea leaves...boiled newts and a voodoo doll of mervin king.
that's my 'mystic meg' nonsense anyway.
the analysis behind this? tea leaves...boiled newts and a voodoo doll of mervin king.
wallstreet1928
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