sujithsstorock
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i didnt read ur post 1st.
i went in reverse order n saw bw81's question
welcome
Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders
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i went in reverse order n saw bw81's question
dr.blix
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Hi DB,
Sorry i didnt reply earlier but I have been quite manic.
My understanding is that a weak dollar is good for the US stock market. Presumably as this makes exports cheaper. A strong dollar has the opposite effect and so my understanding is that the dollar has an inverse relationship with the markets.
Oil is a bit more difficult to understand in that lower priced oil helps the economy to do business as operating costs are lower.
However is does not seem so straight forward as lower oil prices weigh on heavy market weighted oil stocks and can also impact other commodities. Lower oil price suggests lower demand which suggests business is not consuming as much and therefore this can affect the other commodities which are the "raw" materials of business.
I also have read a number of contradicting sources on the internet but this seems reasonable.
Unless I am otherwise mistaken, and I invite others to post their take on the subject but I understand the weak dollar equals markets (generally) up and the converse to this applies.
cheers kaisen, i've only just started to read up on this subject so any info appreciated.
i thought i'd understood
crude up = USD down
crude down = USD up
i'd bundled US stocks and USD together just based on the statement i'd read (in my other post).
something i've just read gives a reason for what you're saying though kaisen re the $ + stocks.
it says that when US equities are sold off in times of uncertainty, the money moves to the more secure USD.
conversely, when sentiment turns bullish, money moves from the USD into the higher risk/higher yield equities markets.
i'm sure there are many more angles on this...no doubt my brain will be fried after a few weeks of trying to understand the basics of inter-market analysis
sujithsstorock
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book cable longs once . again re-enter as close to 2days low as possible. scalping can be done with safe stoploss below low till 2mrw london opening ..!!
wallstreet1928
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sujithsstorock
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oh boy tht was huge one
well 2day was crude data .crude melted..its magnetic affect brought gold-silver-copper n other metals down..!!
so spx500 also down n ftse 100 since start of month is shouting timber.
currencies have one bad habit. they give u quick 20-30 pips n come back to ur entry price.so i would advice ppl to decide wat sort of time frame they gonna trade..!!
for short term,just wait until previous days high or low is crossed.if goes above high n stays thr till newyork opening, then we state trend is up..!! and vice versa.stoploss is small at 25-30 pips for eur/usd ,aud/usd while 50 or so for gbp/usd.
wat if high or low is updated in newyork hours??
set entry on breakout up or below, at tht time stoploss has to be tht days low or high!! whenever it makes high or low previously has no prob.so if new high or low is made in newyork setting stoploss is large n tgt is small .thts the issue..!! so i dont favour a entry at tht time .
2days example,cable..
it was staying below yesterdays low since opening.(yesterdays low on ig shows 16111).thus one knw general trend on of the day is down. now question is not entry.( i feel the day one can predict the price tht wont show for the day,..he is the one who will keep winning more than loosing. so we have to see where we can set stoploss 1st. )
yesterdays london session low was 16150. good sl. one can look to enter as close to tht levels..!! 2days high was 16138.so 16150 never hit..!!. those who sold near 16150 made money.
now suppose u looking for entry after newyork opening.. then,wait for low to break .set stoploss above high.but then tgt is small and risk is never worth it.but still a good strategy
forgot to add a strategy i used to use when i started to trade. but it requires immense alertness and more over its timing is my mid-nyt.
take 2 candle charts,one 30 minutes and other one 5 minutes. take 5 -20-100 dma..!!
starting from 0:00 gmt, whenever 5 dma crosses 20 dma in 5 minutes,go tht direction . if 5 dma crosses aboce 20,then buy..and vice versa when 5 dma falls below 20 dma. when price approaches 1-- dma..dont use this strategy as 100 dma is a monster n can scare over 5 dma back. and we will loose. this strategy is good for 10-20 pips. stoploss u can set from 30 minutes,where last time 5 dma crossed 20 dma.
if it 5 dma went above 20 dma,go long,sl is where last time 5 dma went below 20 dms on 30 min chart. good luck . and its timing is after 0:00 gmt and ends before london sesssion opening.
Dentalfloss
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nas 100 strong today
Hi DB,
Sorry i didnt reply earlier but I have been quite manic.
My understanding is that a weak dollar is good for the US stock market. Presumably as this makes exports cheaper. A strong dollar has the opposite effect and so my understanding is that the dollar has an inverse relationship with the markets.
Oil is a bit more difficult to understand in that lower priced oil helps the economy to do business as operating costs are lower.
However is does not seem so straight forward as lower oil prices weigh on heavy market weighted oil stocks and can also impact other commodities. Lower oil price suggests lower demand which suggests business is not consuming as much and therefore this can affect the other commodities which are the "raw" materials of business.
I also have read a number of contradicting sources on the internet but this seems reasonable.
Unless I am otherwise mistaken, and I invite others to post their take on the subject but I understand the weak dollar equals markets (generally) up and the converse to this applies.
This is made more complex by the huge American debt owed to most countries around the world, but especially to China which owns trillions.
There is talk of the $ being replaced by a basket of currencies with which to price oil and other commodities. Therefore, don't you think that, whenever the $ rises, there will be a tendency to sell some of this debt--not enough to cause a crash-- but enough to keep the currency on the low side for decades to come? This is similar to big money selling shares in small lots to avoid the price falling until all the shares are unloaded.
2be
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I absolutely agree with the above. More warrying is the fact that US looks more and more like a falling empire with the currrent administration looking more preoccupied with little things and still portrayed smiling being busy rearranging the furniture on a sinking Titanic.
In little more than 10 years time the segment of welth generating Americans will become ignorred minority by the socialistic hords vulcharing on anything and anybody by the way of instituted taxation and positive discrimination. The only thing worth having will be the debt, prefeably with Funnie Mae and Freddie Mac, well established commies special forces set up by lefties and operating in the US for years. Now oficcialy they are too big to fall, because the lefties, commies and socialism would need to fall too.
What a pity, but this is a price to pay for ignoring the obvious dangers of political correctness and of raging socialism. By the way, Brusels in other ways are not too far, so we here in Europe are also in a similar danger.
Would we never learn?
As an axample, from the 1st August US firms will not be able to process SL or Limit orders on existing trades on FX pairs. and more. This has been done in order to "protect" the traders. What a folly. Some lefties Democrats would like to see taxation in the region of 90% on profits made by trading. Soon Uncle Sam (Scam) will see to protect the traders from the heavy burden of cashing profits too.
So trade while you can, who knows what tomorrow will bring, wheather from the White House or from Brusels.
wallstreet1928
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Interesting read
2be and spitlink
2be and spitlink
wallstreet1928
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DB you really are a character.......LOL
Anyway back to analysis......
I thought I would share this chart with you
FTSE - strategy for Thurs 9th JULY
1 month 1hr chart
FTSE closed 4140 just above pivot S2
4127 key level ............S2 pivot and where 2 dotted trend lines intersect
> 4127 I will look to go long to 4170 possibly 4192
< 4127 I will look to short to 4100
I will be looking to go long on the morrow
Anyway back to analysis......
I thought I would share this chart with you
FTSE - strategy for Thurs 9th JULY
1 month 1hr chart
FTSE closed 4140 just above pivot S2
4127 key level ............S2 pivot and where 2 dotted trend lines intersect
> 4127 I will look to go long to 4170 possibly 4192
< 4127 I will look to short to 4100
I will be looking to go long on the morrow
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I really appreciate you sharing these thoughts with me (and everyone else) It really helps to have someone elses views on the world, whether you agree with it or not. Good luck for later today. By the way i took my profit on the DAX short trade at 80, so happy enough with that.
wallstreet1928
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No problem at all
well done with your trade my friend
its always good to lock in your profits........
DAX is very strong at present and I expect it to trade above 4600 again tomorrow
Euro 1.385 held
pound held 1.6
Nasdaq held 1400
S&P held 875 ......
All good signs for tomorrow unless the asian session brings something new to the party
SuddenDeath
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good morning everyone
Oh, I forgot. In addition to the debt, we have started "quantitive easing" Trust "politikspeak" to come out with an impressive phrase for printing money!
Makes it sound so much better!Small wonder that the GBP/USD/EUR will come down relative to the rest.
Of course, in our own little world we'll be able to trade cable and EUR in order to make monopoly money.
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