US market commentary

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 04/23/2007

Good day!
GOOG, CAT, HON and AXP powered the DIA and the SPY to a large opening gap. The QQQQ had an opening gap primarily due to GOOG. Those DIA and SPY components kept those indices from filling the gap and despite a choppy consolidation they closed at new highs. The QQQQ was the weakest again and the weekly high was too strong a resistance for continuation. The SPY and the DIA don’t have much resistance because they are already at new weekly highs.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04232007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04232007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04232007qqqq.jpg

The morning saw a slight correction for the SPY and the DIA, while the QQQQ almost completely filled the gap.

On the 15 min charts we can see why is 20sma important support/resistance area on every time frame charts. That area stopped the QQQQ correction and brought strong support for the DIA and the SPY too. Over noon the Indices consolidated for 14:00 reversal period. On charts we can see the afternoon move started at this time. The QQQQ didn’t have much strength for a stronger reversal but the DIA and the SPY came back to the highs and even made new highs for the day before the close and finished on new weekly highs

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04232007dia15.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04232007spy15.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04232007qqqq15.jpg

At the end of the week I always like to look at the weekly charts to see what I can expect for the coming week. We can see impressive action there. The DIA and the SPY made new highs and there finally was a volume increase on that action. That can lead us to bullish mode for the new week. The only problem is with the QQQQ. It is almost back to February highs but with average volume and that area is still huge resistance area for now.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04232007diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04232007spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04232007qqqqweekly.jpg

The weekly charts still suggest the QQQQ might still form a double top pattern, but the DIA and the SPY closed at highs with increase volume and that possibility for them is fading away. We are still in earning season and anything can happen so we need to stay in a cautious mode. The QQQQ action is important now since it can follow the other indices or eventually bring them down. That action can bring a divergence possibility this week and I will stay with same action as last week. That means I will follow the market action day by day. The SPY and the DIA can easily give us more buying action and they have enough room for that without strong resistance. That possibility isn’t a swing setup and because of that we must use caution. For now my bias is on the long side. I will not go with full risk because of above reasons.
If anyone will have question feel free to contact me.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]

 

[ajaskey]

Big Picture

As always, I could be wrong.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VLE&p=W&yr=4&mn=7&dy=1&id=p26043905073&a=82899883&listNum=2

The COTS commercials are net long on a combined dollar basis of the major US equity index futures. That rarely happens and the market always goes up when it does.

Short interest hit new all-time highs in the recent report of mid-March to mid-April. This means that no one was covering at new highs - only shorting more. Ouch.

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 04/26/2007

Good day!
We started Tuesday with another small gap up and it was quickly filled right at the open. From that point forward we saw a nice move up and a trend day. During a trend move it is very important to follow the 20sma support area on the 5 min chart. The action must be above that support area in the trend day definition. The result yesterday was all the Indices made new highs and the DIA did it on stronger volume. Number resistance area (130.00) was broken and right now that is going to be the new support area. The SPY still has room to see its number resistance area (150.00) so we can expect to see that move in the morning. Of course it all depends the on market open.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04262007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04262007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04262007qqqq.jpg

We are still in the earning season and news can be reflected on the open so we must still pay attention to that possibility. AAPL reported blow out numbers yesterday after the close and the NQ will definitely gap the morning. On the 60 min charts we can see the Indices are already on the move and as for low risk setups we need a consolidation (pattern). Right now it is very hard to find a new trading possibility. Most charts are extended or already on the move. Since intraday charts are extended, it is hard to find new day trade also.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04262007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04262007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04262007qqqq60.jpg

Right now it is a good time to manage open swing trades and try to find “own way” charts. That is only chance for swing traders right now. For those who don’t like swing trading the only option is faster trades. The market can start an intraday correction at any time. It is also important to know that when market is already on the move we can expect to see whippy intraday action which can cause problems for day traders. The situation we had yesterday after gap was filled was a whippy market that brought problems for day traders.

For today my bias is staying on the long side since we don’t have any other signal. I think that we could see exhaustion action with bigger volume which could bring us to the top of this daily move up. That is one possibility but during earnings season anything is possible. So let’s trail open swing trades and follow the market action. Attention will be on the 20sma 15 min since that area usually is the start of an intraday correction (consolidation).

If anyone will have question feel free to contact me.

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 04/30/2007

Good day!
Friday's action was pretty much as expected. Not expected was we did not see profit taking before the end of the day. After two weeks of going up the Indices need rest and consolidation for low risk setups and a continuation possibility. On the weekly charts we can see nice continuation for the SPY and the DIA and this time the QQQQ made new highs and a nice clear breakout. One worry now is the CCI on the QQQQ charts. It is above 200 and that telling us it's in an overbought situation. As I said yesterday an overbought can become more overbought. That is not a situation for a short signal.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04302007diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04302007spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04302007qqqqweekly.jpg

The daily chart gave us a second day of consolidation which is good for future action. Indices need more than two consolidation days for a swing setup. Previous daily resistance is now the support area and after the 10sma is the first support area in case the Indices start with a correction. Right now it is too early to predict that action because the last several days we expected a correction and all we saw were new highs.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04302007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04302007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04302007qqqq.jpg

The situation on the 60 min charts is telling us more about the consolidation at highs. After 2 days coming to the 20sma support area and very easily we can see bounce from that support area and buying continuation.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04302007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04302007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04302007qqqq60.jpg

The daily correction is still a possibility but since we don’t have CCI overbought charts on the SPY and the DIA. A strong exhaustion move up is something I will look for this week. Right now all options are open. It is very hard to predict the market action. We can only follow market action and use individual charts for making trades. I will look for “own way” charts as the only possibility for swing trades because most charts are extended or already on the move. With that situation we don’t have many chances for a low risk setup and that is my primary focus in trading.
If anyone has any question feel free to contact me.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]

 

[ajaskey]

As always, I could be wrong.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VLE&p=W&yr=4&mn=7&dy=1&id=p26043905073&a=82899883&listNum=2

The COTS commercials are net long on a combined dollar basis of the major US equity index futures. That rarely happens and the market always goes up when it does.

Short interest hit new all-time highs in the recent report of mid-March to mid-April. This means that no one was covering at new highs - only shorting more. Ouch.

The COTS commercials are still net long the US index futures as of EOD last Tuesday.

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 05/042007

Good day!
We had another slow trading day that did not have much intraday direction. This pattern is becoming familiar in which we have a small gap that is quickly filled. Yesterday the SPY was the strongest index finishing at multi-year highs. The DIA and SPY ended having a nice consolidation day at the highs which we call a CP pattern (continuation pattern). This is a bullish pattern and suggests a continuation from Wednesday's move up.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05042007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05042007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05042007qqqq.jpg

On the 60 min charts we can easily see the DIA and the QQQQ consolidation that continued after Wednesday's high. This is one of my favor patterns and in this case the 20sma is very important area. It must hold or I will cancel that possibility. When we trade CP pattern, which means the buy is above the small bar and the stop is under the small bar and target is an equal move. Of course this is the general trading plan. We have the monthly job report in the morning and a gap in any direction can easily change this idea.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/0504007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05042007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05042007qqqq60.jpg

From the explanation above you can see my bias is on the long side and for now there is no reason to change that. The market is in a nice daily uptrend and it doesn't want to give it up. We also got a daily CP trading pattern and the CCI isn’t overbought. That correction can start at any moment and for a low risk setup we need to see more consolidation. Until that situation presents itself we can only follow the market action. Continuation pattern's are usually day trade patterns and I will look predominantly for day trades and of course own way charts. This is the situation that we have now and after a possible gap in the morning will adjust our morning activity

If anyone has, any questions feel free to contact me.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 05/07/2007

Good day!
Looking at the weekly charts we can definitely say we have strong market action to the upside. After the weekly bottom the market continues to new highs week by week without rest. At start of last week we thought a correction might get started, but after one afternoon and one morning that was history and Indices quickly went back to new highs. When I look weekly charts I just see nice trend move up and CCI is not in overbought area. Every resistance, like the SPY 150 area, or the DIA 130 area are being pierced like a hot knife through butter.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05072007diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05072007spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05072007qqqqweekly.jpg

On the daily charts we have the same situation. We can see early last week the correction possibility and that is all. Those who follow my work know that in the “moving average” class I talked about trends and how moving averages help us to determine the trend. If we have a move above the 10sma and every try to break that support area finishes with a new high that is a sign of a strong uptrend move. If you look at the daily charts that is exactly the situation we have. We can’t predict the future with 100% assurance, but we have high odds to finish this kind of trend with strong a extended daily bar and strong volume. That kind of strong trend (above 10sma) usually finishes that way. This is not rule, just a high probability and something that I will pay attention too.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05072007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05072007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05072007qqqq.jpg

That not mean we will not have some daily corrections before that, but we must stay above 10sma and especially above the 20sma.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05072007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05072007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05072007qqqq60.jpg

Intraday actions are mostly the same last week. We had a gap up in the morning, reversal to close area and then a move up to new highs. Friday action wasn’t exception. Important for an uptrend is the 20sma holding on the 60 min charts. We didn’t see a continuation pattern on Friday that we expected. We had a choppy market that produced several great day trades (CRAY, FSLR, BBB). It was a bettor day for stock traders than future traders.
Right now we can’t change the bullish bias for this week. Unfortunately this type of market isn’t good time to enter new trades for swing traders. The market is already on the move. We will continue to have specific "own way" and day trade opportunities. I will just follow market action day by day and I will look for the situation as explained above. That not mean I will not be prepared for possible correction, but we can’t try to sell top without a reversal pattern and right now we don’t have one.
If anyone has, any questions feel free to contact me.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 05/08/2007

Good day!
After Monday's trading day it is hard to tell if anything new happened. We got a very slow range day without any changes of any consequence. Whatever we do this week is we need to remember the FED is meeting on Wednesday. It is also important to note the the M&A activity with AA probably had the greatest impact in the DIA outperforming the other indices.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05082007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/050872007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05082007qqqq.jpg

After open I waited on the 20sma 5 min for some activity and then the 20sma 15 min. I looked for the 13:00 reversal period and 14:00 reversal period and the same result was the day we just saw tight range action.
The last reversal period at 15:00 brought a small intraday correction, especially for the QQQQ but that really didn’t change overall bias for today. On the 60 min charts we can see that weakest index is the QQQQ and it closed under 20sma what isn’t good For now that the intraday selling pace isn’t very strong. Lets see if that is the start of a bigger correction we can see today. The SPY is forming a nice 60 min cup and handle pattern, while the DIA spent the day basing at highs after it made a new daily high.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05082007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05082007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05082007qqqq60.jpg

For today I don’t have any big revelation and the my bias is the same, I will look for the long side and I will just follow market action. All options are open since market is already on the run.

If anyone has, any questions feel free to contact me.

Good luck trading today!!!!

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 05/10/2007

Good day!
The FED decision has come and gone and as predicted nothing new. The entire world knew that and we still had the typical irrational whippy market after it. I think they changed a comma in the statement on their position. Just imagine what would happen if they move moved the rate a 1/4 point. The day started with sharp gap down for the QQQQ and less severe move for the SPY and the DIA. The morning action tried to fill the gap and after that they stayed in a range before FED announcement.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05102007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/051072007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05102007qqqq.jpg

After FED announcement the indices first reaction was down and typically we had a strong reversal to the upside to new highs. They sold off again to a higher low and reversed again to close strong which indicates a continuation for today.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05102007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05102007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05102007qqqq60.jpg

The QQQQ held the 10sma daily support area and the trend is still in line with the SPY and the DIA. On the 60 min charts we can see that range area is broken and my bias for today is again on the long side. Right now there is no reason for another bias because we don’t have any other signal. All three options are open and because of that it is smart to trade with full lots. A reversal can start anytime, but the market can also consolidation or form a continuation.
Focus will be on intraday action and “own way” trades
If anyone has any questions feel free to contact me.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 05/14/2007

Good day!
The morning selling I expected, I didn't expect the strong move up we experienced. The market consolidated during midday and after the 2 pm reversal period the indices broke up for the rest of day and they finished at the highs.
On the weekly charts the DIA and the QQQQ gave another green bar and from there we can say that nothing changed and the uptrend continued. The SPY showed a doji bar which means indecision, and a sign of consolidation The doji bar suggests a possibility for either direction and it depends which will be broken first, the low or high of that bar.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05142007diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05142007spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05142007qqqqweekly.jpg

The daily charts give us a clearer picture. Thursday's selling and Friday's buying moved out of the daily trend and suggests a range (consolidation) possibility. Daily support areas (10 and 20sma) held very well and are very strong which suggests that will hold for some time. Thursday's move down with big volume suggests that it will be harder to break to new highs. Market is still very strong and we don’t have a sign for a larger correction now, however range action is what I will expect from charts which we have right now.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05142007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05142007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05142007qqqq.jpg

The 60 min charts we can see clearer intraday pattern. I will mark Thursday's low and Wednesday's high and I will look for action between those two areas the next few days. Anything can happen, but for right now those two areas look very strong and for future action and most possible action will be between them.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05142007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05142007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05142007qqqq60.jpg

From the charts we can expect daily range action and that means we can expect days which will have less opportunities than before when market was in a clear uptrend. That not mean we won’t have opportunities and “own way” charts, that means it will be harder to find them. From traders who follow market action we must expect less and we must be faster with profits. I will expect less activity during this possible range action until market shows direction again. Of course this is just one picture the charts are telling us right now. As usual it is best to stay with the market action and just follow it. It is very important is to compare market action and open trades because from there we can read relative weakness and strength. Our focus will be to trade by buying strong charts and shorting weak charts
This week at Wednesday, I will have free class about Continuation Patterns, and if anyone is interested feel free to contact me for instructions.
If anyone has any questions feel free to contact me.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 05/15/2007

Note: Tomorrow is free day in the trading room with free class. Those who are interested can send me email for instructions how to find us.

Good day!
Unfortunately, we want this or not, market act yesterday in line with expectations for possible daily range. Day started with small gap up, but also at previous resistance areas what can easily see on the 60 min charts. Since we had strong selling last week at Thursday and same strong bounce to resistance area it was very hard to expect that Indices will go easily on new daily highs and continued. Thursday selling pace made that possibility very small. Result is on the 60 min charts and it is reversal from highs. The QQQQ was weakest again, while the DIA was strongest what brought divergence out in part of the day.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05152007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05152007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05152007qqqq60.jpg

Since Indices started with range action on the daily charts and 60 min charts, it will be hard to see any continuation while will stay in that range. For that we must come in smaller time frames. Because of that range action is better for faster trades, because pattern will develop easier and we could see continuations much more then on bigger time frames. Same case was yesterday and we can see that on the 15 min charts. It was very familiar move-rest-move, and that was only low risk setup yesterday. Maybe we will find some more on 1 min charts, but that is not my interest and I don’t follow any chart under 5 min.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05152007dia15.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05152007spy15.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05152007qqqq15.jpg

Daily chart didn’t saw bigger change, more announcement of possible daily divergence, because right now the DIA closed in the upper part of 60 min range with breakup tendency, while the QQQQ look like want struggle 20sma on the daily chart with down tendency.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05152007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05152007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05152007qqqq.jpg

Of course this is just scenario what we could see, but much more important right now for traders is to recognize risk. Every successful trader must recognize risk and must know what level risk will use in any market action. Right now with range possibility risk will increase, as always when we lost trend. Of course, I talk with swing trader aspect. Scalp traders don’t care about that and they have different philosophy. But if you are swing and day trader, you will care about risk. “own way” stocks are always welcome in every kind of market, and right now I will look for 5/15 min continuations, until Indices will pick direction.
If anyone has any questions feel free to contact me.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 05/21/2007

Good day!
Friday is a textbook example of a day NOT to trade. Finally, option expiration week is over. I hope that next week will offer more activity.
Despite the fact that the QQQQ started with consolidation, the market continued with its' weekly uptrend. We can easily see that on the charts. The CCI still isn't overbought and I will continue to look for a possible upward exhaustion move with strong volume.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05212007diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05212007spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05212007qqqqweekly.jpg

The daily chart more clearly shows the QQQQ consolidation (triangle) as well as the SPY and the DIA trend continuation (channel). An upward exhaustion move looks more possible because the SPY and the DIA already bounced off the 10sma support area.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05212007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05212007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05212007qqqq.jpg

If you look at the intraday charts, the SPY shows a stronger pace for that possibility. This is not the only possible scenario. It is just one possibility, but from the charts it is looking even more plausible. The DIA 60 min pennant could destroy that possibility, but the daily and weekly pace is still in line

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05212007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05212007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05212007qqqq60.jpg

The SPY is close to an all time high (155.75), and that can act as a magnet and push it to that larger resistance area. If we look at the SPY weekly chart, after the February sell off, the SPY came back to its previous high and continued without any rest. That is the kind of scenario that we could see in the next few days. Of course, this is just one scenario. If the market starts with correction action immediately on Monday, that too would not be a surprise. For now, we can only follow the market action, and as we are currently in an uptrend, that is where my attention will be. I will, however, keep my eyes open for all possibilities. New swings short are more and more risky, and the smaller time frame are more and more favorable for low risk setups. I will pay attention again to charts that have their "own way"as the safest way for swing trading.
If anyone has any questions feel free to contact me.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 05/22/2007

Good day!
The market continued to go up today, however the difference is that the QQQQ was
the leader and the DIA were the weakest, even giving up all of its gains in just minutes.
The sell off that we saw around the 15:00 reversal period destroyed the possibility of a trend day which is what was expected after the intraday QQQQ action. The new QQQQ highs couldn't give enough of a push for the SPY and the DIA to get out of their daily channel and so that continued to be the resistance area for today

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05222007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05222007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05222007qqqq.jpg

On the Intraday charts, we can see the divergence between the strong QQQQ and the weaker DIA. Also we can see that the DIA 60 min pennant broke down with a stronger pace then the buying to its highs which is not a good signal for today. That action suggests a better possibility for more intraday correction. If we look to the past, we can see on the chart just how important the 20sma support area (blue line) is and also we can see that the buying pace was slower and slower. All that, with the pennant action, suggest for the possibility of a correction. However, on the other side, the 60 min QQQQ range broke up with a nice pace, and the 20sma on the daily chart helped with that action. So, we have two different signals (the divergence) which can be added risk for today.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05222007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05222007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05222007qqqq60.jpg

So what should we expect for today? The market is still in uptrend on the daily/weekly charts and we must respect that. A correction or consolidation can start anytime, but that said, continuation is still in the game, and we can really just follow the market action and go with it. Yesterday we had a number of setups and we must compare them with the market action and be selective. Focus on the strongest names and weakest names with reasonable small stops.
If anyone has any questions feel free to contact me.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 05/23/2007

Good day!
Yesterday's market closed at the same area as Monday and consequently we do not have big changes on the daily charts. We can still see a daily uptrend, but this time the Indices look ready for some daily/intraday correction. The pace of the market will help determine the correction possibility and that is something we will have to wait and see. We can see that the DIA and the SPY daily channel resistance area is holding for now. The QQQQ’s doji candlestick yesterday would suggest the potential for a reversal or possibly for a continuation of the uptrend

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05232007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05232007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05232007qqqq.jpg

To see the situation more clearly, let's take a look at the smaller time frames. On the 60 min chart, we can see the correction possibility more clearly. On the QQQQ chart we can see a double top possibility, while the SPY and the DIA are forming 60 min avalanche patterns. Both broke under the 20sma 60 min support area and have room for more selling in the morning, so that will be my focus for the open action. Previous resistances are now support areas and on the daily chart that is the 10sma support areas (brown line).

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05232007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05232007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05232007qqqq60.jpg

We can’t forget on the larger time frames (daily/weekly), we still show a lot of strength so right now we can’t predict the pace of the possible correction. For me, this is not a short signal. This can be the start of a market break before new highs, but it can also be the start of a longer correction. Before I see a good signal, I will use patience and I will follow the market action. That means the focus will be on the smaller time frame action and faster trades like 5/15/30 min moves. Risk for new swing trades increase before a new signal. Of course, charts that have their “own way” are certainly worth focusing on. It is very important for traders to recognize risk because that is a big part of risk management. Not every market action is good for the same risk and the same activity. Today will be a day to use patience and wait for the right opportunities. There will always be opportunities, but not the same number of them.
If anyone has any questions feel free to contact me.

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 05/24/2007

Good day!
Today we saw a situation where the former FED Chairman, Alan Greenspan, discussed his opinion about the market during a speech. His concerns about China and some upcoming economic data was all the market needed as an excuse to start seeing profit taking.
The day started with a gap up and the morning gap held very nicely. We had a strong intraday move up to new highs. With the divergences now gone, and all the indices on the same track, there was a possibility we could see a continuation of the strong move up. Despite that, the Indices choose to consolidate at highs (triangle).

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05242007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05242007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05242007qqqq.jpg

Everything was in line for a continuation breakout until Mr. Greenspan expressed concerns about upcoming economic data. That was a signal for profit taking. We can see this reaction on the 60 min charts. We had a strong pace on the selling pressure. Indices closed at lows and despite the small changes from yesterday close, the indication is for more selling in the morning.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05242007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05242007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05242007qqqq60.jpg

This is really still not a short signal. We still have daily/weekly uptrend, so I don’t recommend jumping into shorts right away with full risk. For me, this means caution for swing long trades, but caution for swing short trades as well. It is important not to panic and very carefully compare open trades with market action. The first hour's action will give us some answers. We will see if we can look for more of a correction, or if the market will stay in a range near highs on the 60 min charts. Thus for the first 60 min, I will just look for market breathe and go with that.
If anyone has any questions feel free to contact me.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 05/25/2007

Good day!
The Bears came out in force yesterday and chased the bulls out of the market. The beginning of the day didn't start out with that scenario, because after the opening of the market we saw a strong move up and the DIA even saw a slightly higher new daily. This was a false breakout and trapped the bulls with that activity. Unfortunately, that was all we saw from the bulls and for the rest of day we had a strong intraday trend down, which is quite visible on the smaller time frames. This action creates a big selling bar which closed at lows with huge volume, much more so than what we have seen in the past. This is a signal for long traders that new highs will be hard to see in the near future. The QQQQ lost its 20sma support area and finished at a trend line support area. The SPY closed at its 20sma support area on the daily chart, while the DIA found support near 134 (whole number support) but it still has some room for more selling to its 20sma.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05252007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05252007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05252007qqqq.jpg

On the 60 min chart we can clearer see yesterday's action and it is important to notice the selling pace. This pace is stronger then the buying pace was to highs, and the selling volume was stronger then the buying volume as well. Usually this is a signal that the up trend is over.


http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05252007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05252007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05252007qqqq60.jpg

However, we still can’t exclude the larger time frames. Yesterday's action is a signal that the market found a resistance area and that it is ready for a correction. One thing to remember is that this is not a signal for a trend change. This is a signal that the uptrend is possibly over for now and that we could see a correction. What kind of correction we will see is still to be determined. It can be a strong reversal, or, possibly range action or flag action. It is too early to say that we must focus on swing shorts and the the market will go down after just one day of selling. After a strong intraday trend usually we will see a consolidation day. Because of that, I will not expect many low risk opportunities today. We know that is hard to trade when we don’t have an intraday trend and we have a high possibility to see that kind of action. Fast trades will be favorable now, and traders must take profits quickly and expect less then the last few days. Also this is the last day before an extended holiday weekend. The market is closed on Monday and consequently that will affect today's volume. I therefore expect to see a high risk market. We must see what kind of correction (consolidation) occurs after yesterdays strong move down, My focus will be on the strongest and weakest names for the intraday moves. I will scan the % lists for that because that is best way to find them.
If anyone has any questions feel free to contact me.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 05/29/2007

Good day!
After a large trend day move, we will usually see a consolidation day. Friday, however, was quite unusual. With an extended weekend and the expectation of a consolidation day, along with the typical light volume, I expected to not be very active. However, Friday was a surprisingly profitable and active day with a number of daytrades in some strong individual stocks. (RIMM, ELN, CLF, FCX).

When we look at the weekly charts after last week's trading, we will notice the following: The QQQQ continued with its consolidation. The SPY stayed in its trend line but finished negative and also gave us the first red bar in seven weeks. The DIA formed a doji bar which indicates uncertainly for the upcoming week. After a doji bar, we can expect either a reversal or the possibility of a continuation of the trend.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05292007diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05292007spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05292007qqqqweekly.jpg

The daily chart will show us more clearly the situation for this week. While it is true that Thursday's low held, we also did not see a bounce to highs on Friday. In addition, we saw a consolidation in the lower part of Thursday's big selling bar. With the light volume on Friday and its intraday action, it will be harder for the Indices to see new highs. This does not mean the beginning of a downtrend, as we can still see the possibility of a daily double top. This is a signal for long swing trades that indicates that we can't count on market support for swing moves up to new highs.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05292007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05292007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05292007qqqq.jpg

If we go lower, the picture will be more clear. The 60 min chart shows us Friday's consolidation. The Indices stayed under their 20sma which acted as the larger resistance area for right now. The QQQQ especially has quite a bit of larger resistance with its 10 and 20 sma overhead. In addition, those moving averages look like they want to crossover, which is usually a signal that the trend is over. Again, this is not signaling that a new trend is here, but it is a signal for long continuation. Right now, it is important to see if the Indices will break under Fridays low. If they do, it is very important to recognize the selling pace. Another consolidation day in Friday's range will increase the possibility for a healthy breakdown with lower risk opportunities. Should we breakdown right in the morning, this will increase the risk of a 60 min double bottom possibility. In other words, the consolidation would not have held to provide for healthy low risk setups.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05292007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05292007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05292007qqqq60.jpg

Because of that, I will focus on “own way” charts and will look to find excellent intraday setups, like we saw on Friday. Until we see daily support for swing trades, I will expect more day trades then swing trades opportunities. There will, of course, always be opportunities, but my job is to find good low-risk setups. Swing traders who are not familiar with faster trades like day and scalp trades, can expect less activity in the future days. Patience is our friend and let’s use it.
If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]

 

[free4440273]

DWL, thanks for a fantastically useful and insightful post. can i attempt to put my money where my mouth is? i am shorting the Dow on Tuesday for the September Dow futures contract. the Dow might very well 'go for 14,000' (as some commentators are saying) but i still think long term we are heading down. i would value your suggestions. have a lovely remainder of the weekend

 

[xpertstocktrader]

DWL, thanks for a fantastically useful and insightful post. can i attempt to put my money where my mouth is? i am shorting the Dow on Tuesday for the September Dow futures contract. the Dow might very well 'go for 14,000' (as some commentators are saying) but i still think long term we are heading down. i would value your suggestions. have a lovely remainder of the weekend

I think that is risky to take swing short right now. As I explained in market commentary: we have signal that bulls maybe need some rest and consolidation. Maybe correction, but right now we cant say that bulls are done. I still look for possible strong move up with big volume as end of this trend. Only on reversal patterns, I will go with shorts. Right now we don’t know what kind of rest we will see. Because of that, I think it is risky to swing short this market.

Hope this help

Regards
Ivica.

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 05/30/2007

Good day!
Yesterday we saw a textbook consolidation day. The market was up, then down and then up again near the close. After all that back and forth action, the Indices closed slightly positively. On the daily charts, we don’t see much of a change. A double top or lower /higher high is still possible. The only thing we can say for sure is that we didn’t get a continuation pattern after yesterday's action.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05302007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05302007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05302007qqqq.jpg

On the 60 min charts, we can see that the previous intraday resistance area held very well. After yesterday's range action, it is hard to predict today's opening and morning activity. I don’t have much more to add after yesterday's commentary. I think that the Market will start with a consolidation (correction) on the daily/weekly charts. Although this is not 100% guaranteed, we have a higher possibility for that kind of action.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05302007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05302007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05302007qqqq60.jpg

I expect that the SPY and the DIA will follow the kind of action that the QQQQ started several weeks ago .We can easily see the potential of that kind of range action on the weekly charts. Right now, the only thing we can do is to follow the market action and be focused on “own way” stocks and intraday movers. For example - the action we had on GOOG yesterday.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05292007goog.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05292007goog30.jpg

My primary focus will be to find intraday charts that give us lower risk setups. If we look at the larger time frames, and the possibility for consolidation (correction), I would not be surprised to see a slower, summer-like week. This is, of course, just a possibility, but usually summer is the slower part of the year. This, in combination with the market consolidation possibility, leads me to believe that this summer could even be slower. That doesn't mean that we won’t have any opportunities, it just means we could be less active. We will, however, continue to find charts that have their "own way".
If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic