US market commentary

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 07/09/2007

Good day!
The holiday week is behind us and overall it was pretty good. We got our move up prior to the 4th and we got a nice continuation Thursday and Friday. The question to ask: Is the party over?? Volume should pick up this week with most traders returning and we will see what is the true market breadth. On the weekly chart we can see the QQQQ made a new high. With the volume being anemic that move greatly concerns me. When we look at the DIA and the SPY weekly charts the volume is also extremely low.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07092007diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07092007spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07092007qqqqweekly.jpg

The daily chart shows us a clearer view. The is a strong move on the QQQQ chart with low volume. The move for the SPY and the DIA is quick a bit weaker. Volume is also low.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07092007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07092007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07092007qqqq.jpg

The 60 min charts show the same thing. Now what? All directions are possible and for me it is difficult to predict future action. If I must bet, I will look for daily correction. It is hard to believe we will see continuation this week on the long side. Volume was very light and the SPY and the DIA are far away from daily highs, which is very strong resistance right the time being. Anything can happen, but I will be very cautious on the long side. I will look for the correction and I will not be surprised if we will see pull back to daily 10/20sma support areas.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07092007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07092007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07092007qqqq60.jpg

We have the market above all the moving averages which are support areas. This is nice for the long side. On the other side the volume is terrible. For now I expect consolidation and continuation on the weekly charts for the SPY and the DIA and a correction for the QQQQ. At the open I want to observe the market action, I want to see the market pulse when all traders are back trading in the market. We are approaching earning season and that throws a cautionary wind in the air for swing traders. The market reacts quickly on news and staying overnight can be risky.
For Monday I will observe the open to feel the market breath and then will determine what direction we will see. Focus is always the same: “own way” stocks and strongest and weakest names.
If you have any questions email me or ask me in the trading room.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 07/10/2007

Good day!
We had a small trading range today, especially for the QQQQ and the SPY, which both closed at Friday's closing area. Daily volume was light, despite being a new non-holiday week. The market commentary can stay the same for today.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07102007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07102007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07102007qqqq.jpg

On the 60 min charts, we can clearly see yesterday's range action. Last week's buying pace slowed down and right now the charts look like they are starting to have rounded highs. It is quite possible we will see a small trading range again today.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07102007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07102007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07102007qqqq60.jpg

All day I was worried about the long side and because of that we had a very slow day with new setups. I will look for a correction from the daily resistance areas. (the DIA previous daily high, the QQQQ after last week move up and the SPY from previous daily high resistance area). For now we don’t have a short signal so I don’t expect strong selling pressure. We will know more after we see the direction of the next move. Those who follow me know that I am a continuation breakout trader. Right now we don’t have a continuation pattern and my focus will be on the weakest and strongest names and intraday moves. Earning season is getting closer and overnight trades will be higher risk which will make it more difficult for swing traders. During that period and also the summer period my advice is to stick with intraday moves with the relative strongest and weakest charts. I will use % lists for that. For swing trades, it is important to follow the earning dates and market influence on them.
If you have any questions, please feel free to email me or ask me in the trading room.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 07/11/2007

Good day!
Everyone ever hear that after a small range day we can expect a trend day. Well that is exactly what we got yesterday, only it was a down trend day. Last week we said the party is probably over and that is something we expected. The day started with strong gap down with the indices opening under Monday's low and that was the signal for the shorts to come in and trigger the panic sellers.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07112007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07112007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07112007qqqq.jpg

After the day started with weakness the indices started to look to fill the gap. Only the QQQQ had the strength for that and the SPY and the DIA continued to show weakness during that period. On the 60 min charts we can see that Indices opened under 20sma 60 min and all day that resistance was to strong an area for them. After the 11:00 am ET reversal period Indices reached the high of the day. After that period which the market usually enters a slower part of the day. I didn’t expect a strong reversal right away and I was going to wait till the 13:00 pm ET or 14:00 pm ET reversal periods.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07112007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07112007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07112007qqqq60.jpg

Around 13:00pm ET reversal period Indices started with very whippy intraday action. They didn’t have enough strength to break up, however they didn’t have enough weakness for a move down. I usually avoid that period of the day for entering new trades. The weak open and weakness all morning indicated to me to look for a weak afternoon. With Bernanke talking inflation and more concern for subprime mortgages than previously noted, the market started to fall apart around 14:00 pm ET. We got a trend day after range bar day. That is common in market action. Unfortunately, this is not swing short signal. The SPY closed under 10/20/ and 50sma on the daily chart, but the DIA sitting on them and the QQQQ far away from them. That does not mean we wont see more selling pressure the next few days and that will be my focus. That mean the DIA is still in its daily range and the same for the SPY. The QQQQ started its daily correction after new highs. Volume is picking up and that is very important information. I will expect more selling pressure, but again the bulls are not dead if we look daily and weekly charts. I will use this weakness for now only for few days of correction possibilities, nothing more. Intraday focus is same; strongest and weakest names.
If you have any questions, please feel free to email me or ask me in the trading room.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 07/12/2007

Good day!
All the indices are once again above all the daily moving averages and those areas are once again the first support areas. We saw weakness at the open, but just at the open. The bounce came after several minutes and the support area held for the rest of the day. Most of intraday action was very whippy and useful only for scalp trades. A lot’s of individual names bounced strong from support areas and back to previous highs, but without intraday rest. I avoid that setup because they are high risk. I just mark intraday bounces for possible future consolidations.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07122007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07122007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07122007qqqq.jpg

On the 60 min charts we can see that Indices stayed in the range. Trading during that period is higher risk. All Indices are now around the 20sma resistance areas. The QQQQ previous daily resistance area can reflect with 60 min double top pattern and same is with the SPY and the DIA, but in this case Tuesday's high of the day.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07122007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07122007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07122007qqqq60.jpg

I’m still not comfortable with swing long setups and I will use them for day trades or faster trades. On the other hand, swing shorts have a difficult time also. That brings us to the conclusion we have market range action without a true trend. One day we have a strong intraday reversal and the next day a bounce to the previous high without much of a rest. Earning's session started and we can expect more gaps at the open. Holding overnight is becoming a higher risk. During that period my focus will stay same. I don’t have strong bias either way today. I’m still more bearish right now. When I look at weekly charts I don’t expect the bulls will quit that easily after several months of a nice uptrend move. I do expect the need for a correction. We can see a fight between bulls and bears over summer for a new swing direction. In other words the market needs to consolidate and correct for several weekly/months. In that time we can look for shorter time frame trades as the safest way to be profitable
If you have any questions, please feel free to email me or ask me in the trading room.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 07/13/2007

Good day!
What a day. If you look at the Indices on 15 min charts you can see a perfect example of a trend day. When we add on to the new yearly highs that is telling us about market breath. The day started with strong gap up and in the pre market in the QQQQ and very soon the DIA join to party and broke to new highs. During the day, the SPY didn’t want to stay alone under daily highs and closed above them also.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07132007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07132007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07132007qqqq.jpg

During a trend day, you want to follow the 5/15 min 10sma and 20sma. It is very important for the trend pace. You can see that on the 15 min charts Indices stayed all day above 10sma, which suggests strength (pace). The only worry during the day, for me, was volume. I wasn’t satisfied with volume, but before close that came in also. It wasn't ideal but I expect that we will also follow the next few days.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07132007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07132007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07132007qqqq60.jpg

For now we have strong breakout pace and with volume coming in I expect more buying days in the future. Those who follow my commentary for some time, remember that I expected a strong exhaustion move up with strong volume to end the last several months trend up. I don’t know if that is what I expected, but from start we have high possibility to see that. Unfortunately, most of the moves that up started Wednesday and just continued yesterday with gap up and because of that, we didn’t have lots of opportunities. But I believe that we will find something in future days. I mentioned I’m in a bullish mode, but that not mean I will just go today with any setup and hold. That is not my style. After a strong trend day we usually see a back and forth day (consolidation day). I was on the wrong side of market and I missed this initial break up. It would be a big mistake if I try to catch anything in market that already moved. I need rest or consolidation. I will watch for that on 30/60 min charts. If I don't see that then I will be happy because that style saved me from a false breakup. So for me when I miss trend day the next days are patience days. I will wait for intraday patterns. I won’t be surprised if we will see gap up in the morning and I believe that can only help our open long trades.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 07/16/2007

Good day!
What a week we had!!!! We are all human and a trader’s mission is to avoid mistakes and have a clear mind every moment during trading hours. But since we are human and mistakes will happen it is important to understand them so they will not be repeated the next time.
When I look at the weekly/daily charts I ask myself how I missed this last run? I expected this action for several weeks and I missed it. On the weekly charts we can see that breakout pace is very strong and it suggests a continuation in the future. The QQQQ breakout looks best and its very strong. It closed at the 50 area which is a very strong number resistance area. This breakout has additional room on the weekly chart. The same is with the DIA and the SPY. The difference is the SPY is the weakest and a double top pattern is dangerous. All three charts look great and calls the bulls out to join the party.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07162007diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07162007spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07162007qqqqweekly.jpg

That strong break up on new highs really surprised me. I expected a move down or perhaps range action, but the strong break up definitely not. On the daily charts, I will try to explain why. Volume is main reason. We expected light volume during the holiday week and didn’t expect the breakup on that light declining volume which can be seen on the daily charts. Those who follow me in the trading room know that I was very skeptical about the long side. If I look daily/weekly pace and volume I still have mixed feelings about that action. Because of that trading is interesting and sometimes unpredictable.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07162007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07162007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07162007qqqq.jpg

The 60 min charts just confirm what I explained above. Indices are already in 3rd buying wave and last breakout pace was very strong and strongest during last 2 buying waves (with light volume). On the charts we can see that resistance areas are here and Indices need rest for new activity.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07162007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07162007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07162007qqqq60.jpg

Was that massive buying result in the end of weekly trend activity? Perhaps short covering? I don’t know, I know that I missed it. Frustrating, isn’t it? A bad move here is to now join in the already moving market. Low risk setups are now history and I need to wait for another daily/60 min consolidation. On the weekly charts we can see the Indices have room for a move up. Light volume continuing is something to consider right now, but volume can pick up in the future and all characteristics will be here. On the daily chart the Indices area extended (the DIA daily CCI= +206), 60 min charts are extended and already show 3 buying waves. All time periods under weekly indicate that Indices need rest, and that is what I will look this week. I missed the party but I know the next party will come and I will be ready for it. Now patience is again my best friend and I don’t want fall into an overtrading trap after the last two days. Focus will remain on intraday action and “own way” charts.
If you have any questions, please email me or ask me in the trading room.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 07/17/2007

Good day!
After the move the market has had it needs a rest. That is the process that we can expect. On the daily charts we can see that Indices reached resistance areas and right now we need to see consolidation (correction). We don't know the kind of consolidation we will see but we will follow the action during the week. Remember you hear lots of things like overbought, extended, etc., it is important to know that the market can become more overbought and more extended.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/0717007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/0717007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/0717007qqqq.jpg

Volume remains light on this move up and that still concerns me for future activity. On the 60 min charts the first support area that we have is 20sma. That is an important support area because as long as the Indices stay above it, we can expect to see possible intraday moves and bounces. If 20sma doesn't hold then we can look for larger possible correction. Right now when I see this kind of market action, I will wait for initial move. Before that is speculative and in the scalp mode. After the initial move consolidation is very important because it depends on consolidation what we can expect from future action. Example; if it is an initial move down, for continuation I want to see consolidation at lows (base, flag triangle). If we don't see that, then we can expect range action or a bounce to highs.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07172007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07172007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07172007qqqq60.jpg

Until I see an initial move every action is good only for scalps or to be traded with high risk and that is not my focus. This week is option expiration week and also earning season get into full bloom. Only “own way” charts will be good for swing and everything else is good for intraday moves or daytrades. During option expiration week we can expect whippy action a little more than usual. The best way to trade that kind of action is to use bigger stops to avoid being whipsawed. It is also important not to overtrade. With market ready for daily consolidation that will be more important than usual this week.
Caution this week: 1. option expiration week 2. summer trading and possible market consolidation (correction). 3. Earnings season
So, be smart and trade small and most of all use patience.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 07/18/2007

Good day!

The DJI hit 14K. The QQQQ continued to be a powerhouse and saw new highs with higher volume. This index is being powered by the semi's with some big names moving 10 percent today. The DIA and the SPY did not follow the enthusiasm.

On the daily charts we can see that the QQQQ still has room until the equal move resistance area. The SPY and the DIA formed a doji bar which can suggest a correction in future days. As mentioned yesterday overbought can be more overbought so it can continue also. Risk is still high because Indices just continue with to new highs every day.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/0718007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/0718007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/0718007qqqq.jpg

On the 60 min charts we can see a clearer situation. The DIA's buying pace is slowing down and it looks like a start with rounding highs. It is still above 20sma which is very an important support area is for now. The SPY already in the 60 min range action and closed under 20sma and with daily doji pattern telling us that correction is close (what kind, we don’t know yet without the initial move). The QQQQ is strongest and it broke above 60 min range and closed near highs.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07182007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07182007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07182007qqqq60.jpg

Risk didn’t change. We still don’t have consolidation (correction), despite the market continues to new highs on light volume. Only the QQQQ is the exception yesterday. On the daily charts we can see that Indices are at resistance area and new long trades longer than intraday action (day/scalp trades) are risky now. We are in earnings season (INTC) and market can be effected with gaps in the morning. Depending on earning results. So I will stay in the same mode. Focus is on intraday activity on the strongest and weakest names.

After hours INTC and YHOO disappointed and sold off. The futures also sold off suggesting a gap down this morning.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 07/19/2007

Good day!

We started the day with a gap down which brought additional selling pressure for the first part of the day. The weakest index was the SPY and it was the first to reach the 10sma daily support area which is strong support after the move up last week. The market consolidated near the lows during midday and formed a daily range action.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/0719007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/0719007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/0719007qqqq.jpg

On the 60 min charts we can see clearly how the previous resistance area has become support and held yesterday selling pressure. Since Indices opened under 20sma they had enough room for that move down. But the bigger time frame is always very important for reversal expectations and the afternoon's reversal is not strange. The market action is very strong and I really didn’t expect that bulls to quit that easily.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07192007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07192007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07192007qqqq60.jpg

I said many times that it is important to see consolidation after an initial move (yesterday case is move down) and support was too strong for continuation after midday consolidation. Before the close the Indices broke the 10/20sma on the 15 min and bounced. The QQQQ was the strongest and closed above 20sma on the 60 min charts while the DIA and the SPY closed right under. That area is now resistance. Yesterday's volume was stronger than previous days which suggests the market held the morning gap well and it might hold for now. All this is the introduction to the daily correction. I do not expect during option week that we will see a strong reversal from the daily highs. I think that we can expect more days like yesterday with intraday moves in both directions. We closed all shorts because they were all back to entry area and I think that is not smart to take that risk with overnight trades when we don’t have clear daily setup. They will stay on my list if market shows more weakness. During earning season if open trades don’t show progress it is best to close them because the risk of a gap.

If you have any questions, please email me or ask me in the trading room.

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 07/20/2007

Good day!

We got the gap up as expected. The QQQQ gapped up on new daily/weekly highs and for the SPY and the DIA to previous daily highs. That was it. My analysis can stop there because the rest of the day we saw range action without an intraday trend. The QQQQ tried, but the DIA and the SPY didn’t move in any direction after the open.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07202007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07202007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07202007qqqq.jpg

On the 60 min charts we can see how that looks. The QQQQ saw daily equal move resistance area and that area held for now. The QQQQ formed a daily doji bar. The DIA and the SPY formed a handle after Wednesday cup pattern. All the indices stayed above the 20sma which suggests strong behavior.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07202007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07202007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07202007qqqq60.jpg

A cup and handle is usually a continuation pattern and suggest more strength today. The daily resistance areas caution us. Risk remains high and if market will break up I will trade only with small risk. Today is option expiration Friday and we can expect whippy intraday action. To avoid whippy stops I will use larger stops than usual and I will take profit faster than usual. Also we are in the earning session and summer trading can effect action today. Because of all that you must ask yourself: is it worth it? Usually during option Friday I’m not active and very possible that will be case today. Maybe I will take a trade or two, but only with small risk. If I see it is not worth it I will close all day trades. Cash is a position too and patience is our friend. Please remember that stops are our friend too. Yesterday QCOM action is live example of that. Please don’t avoid them. Better to take a stop than come in to “pray mode”. Market will be here next week and next year so don’t fall in trap to lose money on a day like today when risk is high. A good trader must recognize risk and know when it is time to be more or less active.

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 07/23/2007

Good day!
The market has come to a crossroads. This is not the first time since I began my service but it is the first time we have been in an extended quagmire. Summertime trading, earnings season, option expiration, holidays, low volume etc., etc. have all contributed to trendless high risk trading. Everyday I mention in my commentary the market is high risk. I mention that because I want to save you the time, frustration and money it has cost me in the past learning when to trade and when not to trade. My style of trading requires a market trend specifically for break out plays. Many of you have noticed with a trendless market good setups break and then they either sit and do nothing or reverse against us causing us to take a stop. Patience and capital preservation is needed at this time. The market will change, it may be a few more days or possibly weeks but it will change. It is important to remain in the game until that time happens.

The market opened with a strong gap down. CAT and GOOG did the opposite what IBM did the day before. Wednesday's low was the support area and held on Friday. That is the action of a chart that is topped out and is not unusual, especially during earnings season. It is important to follow the volume. If you remember I talked about light volume on the weekly breakup and I will like to cover that again because that is an important indicator. On the weekly charts we can see higher volume this week. The QQQQ and the DIA formed a doji bar which can be the indicator of changes, while the SPY was the weakest and finished in the red area.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07232007diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07232007spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07232007qqqqweekly.jpg

The volume difference is seen more clearer on the daily charts. Blue arrows show buying volume and red arrows show selling volume. The QQQQ is holding and the last few days buying volume is smaller than selling volume. Nothing dramatic, but it is still telling us about buying and selling interest. If we look at the DIA and the SPY chart we can see dramatic difference between them. The weekly and daily resistance areas and the light buying interest we can make conclusion that market has seen a top for now. That is important information for traders on the long side.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07232007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07232007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07232007qqqq.jpg

The 60 min charts look like they are ready for a correction or bigger range action. The QQQQ is forming a possible head and shoulder pattern. Nothing for sure but something I will follow Monday. Depending on the 60 min correction from Friday’s selling pressure we hopefully can predict the future of the DIA and the SPY action. If we see consolidation near support area (flag, base) then we can look for another selling wave. If we will see bounce above 20sma then we can expect range action.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07232007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07232007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07232007qqqq60.jpg

From last week my expectations haven't changed very much. The bull side is high risk now and I will use long days only for intraday moves, (“own way” charts are expectations) and I will trade them with small risk. Focus will be on possible swing shorts and I will start with small position and if it will improve then I will add. Reason for that it is not clearly a daily situation. I think that market is topped, but that does not mean we will see a strong reversal. We can see that but we can also see daily/weekly consolidation at the highs. The volume difference is telling us that bull are smug and they need rest. Right now we don’t have a trend on the daily chart and before that we must be more cautious and use proper risk.
If you have any questions, please email me or ask me in the trading room.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 07/24/2007

Good day!
We had a very slow day with little change in the indices. Volume was very light and without MRK and the a large oil drilling merger the market did nothing. I would say there is little buying interest and I will be extra cautious on new long trades

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07242007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07242007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07242007qqqq.jpg

There really is nothing more to say about yesterday market action . We had a divergent market all day between the DIA strength and the QQQQ weakness which added to the already high risk. On the 60 min charts we can see that only the DIA is holding above 20sma while the SPY and the QQQQ have that area as resistance for now. Also we can see that all three Indices the last several days are acting in a wild range which is the result of consolidation after strong move into new highs. Daily and weekly charts still look strong but volume is a problem for me and we can’t ignore light interest on positive days.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07242007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07242007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07242007qqqq60.jpg

On the 60 min charts I can possibly see the action which we might expect tomorrow and that is what I will follow. Conclusion is that I expect more daily correction and my bias is on short side. We can't forget that we are in earning session and this week we have number of earnings which can easily help gap the market in the morning. Until the Indices stay in a 60 min range risk will stay high. My way to trade this market is that I use small risk and I trade with less shares than usual. When I am confident that an open position will improve I will add on an intraday setup. Open positions that do not improve I will close and that way I try to save my capital. Right now (last days) we haven't gotten help from market for swing trades and because of that we must be very patient and trade with less risk. Focus is more on intraday moves. All day I compare chart actions with market action and on that way I try to find movers. I see number of good setups, but most of them end up not having intraday strength or weakness which we like to see after setup. Because of that , PLEASE be cautious and save money. This market is an elimination market and weak hands will be pushed from trading if they don't trade smart. Market will come back, it always has and always will. Together with summer slow trading we must be patient. Summer is the time of year when we have fewer opportunities and we must be very picky. Keep that in mind, because we will have action again and save your bullets for that
If you have any questions, please email me or ask me in the trading room.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 07/25/2007

Good day!

The correction from the daily highs continued yesterday with strong selling to the daily support areas. The day started with a gap down and the intraday (60 min) support areas held during the morning. The QQQQ was strongest and filled the morning gap but couldn’t break above the 20sma 60 min. The morning correction from the gap held until 13:00 pm ET reversal period when the selling pressure started and brought the Indices to the area that I expected from the morning. The SPY couldn’t hold above 20/50 sma daily support area and there was plenty of room for selling pressure. The SPY found support at the previous daily low. For the QQQQ and the DIA the next support was the 20sma on the daily chart. Again notice the buying and selling volume. This is the indicator that I talk about in every market commentary. Also, those who follow my commentary can remember Mondays update. The weekly charts gave us signal for yesterday action. We can never know exactly when the market will sell off, but light buying volume telling us there is weak buying interest.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07252007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07252007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07252007qqqq.jpg

On the 60 min charts we can see the scenario I expected and yesterday we got more than the equal move with a strong selling pace. We can see that the SPY is the weakest (couldn’t hold 200sma) and we see that on the daily chart also.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07252007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07252007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07252007qqqq60.jpg

I mentioned yesterday that the only direction that I was interested in was the short side. This was because of the previous range and low buying volume. The brought us to a very risky long side or an easier and less risky short sale. Now what? We can’t forget the larger time frames and on the weekly chart we still have uptrend and a bullish market. I don’t expect that bulls will quit that easily. The daily support areas are also strong. Usually the 20sma will hold the first try and we have extended intraday action right now. I do not expect much more selling pressure today. Yesterday we got a move that is expected and now we need intraday consolidation for a continued move. It will be best to see consolidations at the lows and a possible daily continuation pattern, but market doesn't ask us what we want. I will look for a possible bounce from strong daily support areas what will be useful only for intraday moves (day and scalp trades). It is important not to overtrade and give back all of yesterday's profit. After a large move we need rest and that is usually back and forth action. Don’t forget that we are still in earning season and morning gaps can destroy patterns from the previous day. Safest place is still with intraday setups. Risk is still high and I expect same throughout the summer. I will go day by day and we will see where the market will bring us.
If you have any questions, please email me or ask me in the trading room.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 07/27/2007

Good day!
What a day! The indices gapped down at the open and only the QQQQ had the strength to the fill gap in the morning. During the day the QQQQ remained the strongest but it too sold off in the panic. After the morning try for a bounce and after 10:30 reversal period we saw a strong trend move down. The indices couldn’t break above the 20sma 5 min and 10sma 15 min which is a signal for a strong intraday selling pace. In the room we followed that action and I explained why this action was not unusual from a technical view. The indices couldn’t find support and the DIA was more than 400 points down. When the QQQQ couldn’t get back above 20sma daily and when the DIA lost the 20/50 sma daily supports there was room for strong selling. During day we saw panic selling which may indicate that we (very possible) saw the daily bottom for now.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07272007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07272007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07272007qqqq.jpg

The DIA couldn’t stay above 200sma 60 min, same as the QQQQ and gave us more than an equal move. This was expected because of a strong intraday selling pace. When we have that a strong pace we can look for more than an equal move especially when we have support on the bigger time frames for that action.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07272007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07272007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07272007qqqq60.jpg

Yesterday we saw one of biggest bars in a while with huge volume. What does that indicate? A bottom perhaps. I don’t think the market will come back fast unless we see an intraday “V” bottom pattern. Usually that is not kind of action what we get after days like today. I will look for a consolidation day today which is usual after a strong move. Look at the QQQQ daily chart after todays market action. It is almost back and is telling us again it is the strongest. The SPY is the weakest and the DIA is in the middle. I won’t be surprised if the SPY will try to retest yesterday's low area. Right now I expect that this support area will hold and he SPY will close above 20sma on the weekly chart. Rght now we closed all trades. This is because a new short is too risk and most of them saw their lows. Right now I’m not interested in swing trades unless I find “own way” charts and that will be the main focus for today's watch list. I will use the % column to find stocks with range action yesterday. I’m not interested in extended charts for swing trade. They are good only for intraday reversal patterns and that will be second focus today. For possible reversals I will use max for day/scalp purposes. Don’t forget that today is summer Friday in earning season.
If you have any questions, please email me or ask me in the trading room.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]

 

[xpertstocktrader]

For trading ideas look at: www.ivicacharts.com or http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=20383

Market commentary for 07/30/2007

Good day!
Where is the bottom? The indices continued to trade on fear and of credit concerns. With a strong downdraft at the close the indices closed at the lows for the day and week. The day began with a small gap on good GDP numbers but buying was weak. This was not the V bottom scenario we were hoping for. I was also looking for a double bottom or rounding lows for possible afternoon break up from intraday trend down, but market was to weak for that. Despite the weak market action we had several very nice day trades on both sides (GOOG, NAK, WCC). That was much more than I expected and we proved that traders can make money in both directions if they trade smart with reasonable risk.
Now what? We don't know but the charts can help us find a way. Let’s start with weekly charts to see damage what we saw last week.
On all the charts we can see extremely big volume and an extremely big red bar, opened at top and closed at the bottom. If you remember my worry about breaking up to new highs without volume this action is proof why I was hesitant at that time to institute new swing long trades. On the SPY weekly chart we can see a double top and false breakout. The SPY is on the support area and it still has a little room to see another strong support of the 50sma. As you know, usually the 1st try to break the 20sma will hold, but this time the SPY weekly chart is telling us about very strong weakness there. Lately the QQQQ has been the strongest which we can see on the chart. We found support at the 10sma and the previous resistance area, while the DIA found support at 20sma and the previous weekly low. Conclusion is that on the weekly charts Indices are holding here on a strong support area

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07302007diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07302007spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07302007qqqqweekly.jpg

Let’s look at the daily charts. The DIA is at the previous low support area and has a little room until 100sma, the SPY is at 200sma (strong support area) and the QQQQ is at the 50sma. Conclusion is that we see strong support areas on the daily charts too

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07302007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07302007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07302007qqqq.jpg

On the 60 min chart the SPY and the DIA are on the move. The SPY closed at 145 number support area, while the DIA have room for more selling to see 100sma daily. The QQQQ can see double bottom pattern.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07302007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07302007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07302007qqqq60.jpg

Conclusion is that we don't know where the bottom is nor can we can see more selling We do know that Indices are on STRONG support areas and after several strong selling days obviously any new short trade any more than a scalp is a HIGH risk game. My focus for now will not be on the short side. Maybe we can find an intraday fast trade possibility like WCC on Friday, but I don’t expect anything longer. We saw panic selling and strong correction from highs but on the weekly charts the Indices are still in an uptrend and I don’t expect that we will see new highs soon and they will not be easy. I think that we can expect a bounce and correction from strong weekly/daily support areas. What kind of bounce we don't know right now, but our focus must be on the daily strong charts. Looking for them to predict market action and on intraday reversal patterns (double bottom, rounding low, phoenix). That will be my focus this week. I will look for stronger names and long trades. Not swing trades. For now, until we will see correction from lows (when we are sure that we have a low in place) best is to stay is with intraday moves. Last week we had extreme reaction to news etc. and this is not the time for full risk trades. We must see clear situation before that. In other words we got a move and now is time for rest. What kind of rest we will see that is something what we will figure. Looking at the past after a strong correction the Indices gave us another swing move up with new highs and that we see a 2nd weekly buying wave. Can we see this after this correction with the same action to the 3rd wave? I don’t know, but I do know that our eyes must be open and we must follow the market and keep in mind that possibility also. We are still in a weekly uptrend market.

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 07/31/2007

Good day!
Selling pressure finally abated. That was expected since the strong daily and weekly support held. The day started with small gap up and as usual a small gap will be filled right at the open. After the open the Indices started with choppy intraday action sort of like they didn’t know what direction to take or with other words they needed a rest from the strong selling pressure last week.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07312007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07312007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07312007qqqq.jpg

Usually after strong move in any direction and we don't see a “V” pattern and strong bounce. That pattern will come after the first pullback from the high to the support area. Last week we saw more than the first pullback from the highs. Especially for the SPY which broke under the previous daily low without rest. Most of time we will see a rounding bottom started. Continued with choppy action and finally a choppy phoenix pattern. That is what we saw yesterday on the 5 min charts. When we have strong daily/weekly moves we must go on smaller time frames to find the bottom possibility and 5 min chart is good time frame for that. On the 5 min charts, we can see that after double bottom, Indices form a choppy phoenix and that was bottom for yesterday. This kind of action is very usual after strong moves on the bigger time frames (daily/weekly). Buying pace was not strong which was again expected. As I said above we can’t expect a “V” bottom. After 3 buying waves every other buying wave breakout is more and more risky and we can look for a correction.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07312007dia5.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07312007spy5.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07312007qqq5q.jpg

We can see a clearer buying pace on the 60 min charts. The DIA was the weakest and we can see that yesterday's buying pace was weaker than Friday’s selling pace. From that action we can expect more choppy action and possible 30/60 min rounding bottom which is more expected after the strong selling on the daily charts. The DIA and the SPY closed under 20sma 60 min, while the QQQQ stuck under 200sma and 20sma 60 min.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07312007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07312007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07312007qqqq60.jpg

Now what? I will look for 30/60 min rounding bottom as a real bottom from last weeks selling pressure and strong daily/weekly support area. That means we could see intraday up/down action today. Of course, nothing is 100% sure and since we are still in earning season we can see a strong gap up today in the morning. I tried to explain the situation which is most common after extended moves. Since I don’t know if will see gap in the morning, I will look for selling pressure in the morning (Friday’s low should hold) and bounce again into the 60 min 20sma resistance area. That action we call rounding bottom. This is a common scenario but we can’t blindly follow that. We will see what market will bring at the open. From this explanation one thing is 100% sure. That is most important thing for us, and that is risk. Right now it is high and it will be same until market decides its direction. Best trades come from OWN WAY charts like NAK, VDSI and AMAT yesterday and that will stay in my focus. For others I will look for strongest and weakest names for intraday purposes.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 08/01/2007

Good day!
Today's early rally can be characterized in the same way as building a house without a foundation. Once enough people climbed on board and drove it high enough it came crashing down. A few big cap stocks in the DIA (GM, JNJ, CAT and MO) rallied early creating a huge gain in the DIA, unfortunately nothing else followed. With the price of oil closing at an all time high and HAM reopening down 90 percent on bad mortgages the market collapsed.

Looking at the daily charts the QQQQ broke daily support at the 50 sma, the DIA remained below support and the SPY held 200 sma support.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08012007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08012007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08012007qqqq.jpg

Looking at the 60 min charts all support now becomes resistance. After this type of selloff the market has more room to the downside, but it also needs to consolidate. Unless we get several days of consolidation we remain in a news and earnings driven market without a clear trend.

Fundamentally looking at sectors you can see the financials sold off on credit concerns and interesting is the oil and energy stocks sold off late even with oil closing at a high.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08012007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08012007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08012007qqqq60.jpg

The market is still in a longer term weekly uptrend, the daily is breaking down so swing trades are extremely high risk. I will look for own way and day trades tomorrow. My bias is bearish heading into today. Hopefully we will consolidate at these lows to provide lower risk short trades. Another possibility is we sell off very hard at the open, at least 250 to 300 DIA points and we put in a V bottom and I will look long trades.

With earnings and news I expect to open with a small gap and I will monitor the market from that point.
If you have any questions, please email me or ask me in the trading room.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 08/02/2007

Good day!
The only thing that can be taken from yesterday's market action is the indices may have put in a bottom. The whole day we saw slow, choppy and high risk intraday action. We tried a couple of trades with small risk and they did not do very well. We showed patience and just watched the market. The last 30 min finally brought action but that was to late for a solid entry others than scalps.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08022007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08022007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08022007qqqq.jpg

The buying pace was stronger than the selling pace and that indicates a higher possibility that Indices have found a daily bottom for now. Volume was higher which also helps that conclusion. The DIA was strongest all day and on last 30 min bounce it broke above 20sma 60 min without rest. The SPY and the QQQQ were not as strong and are still under that important intraday support area.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08022007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08022007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08022007qqqq60.jpg

I never try to pick a bottom and I always wait for the initial move (bounce). Right now, I’m highly interested to see 30/60 min consolidation (base, triangle, flag). If we get something like that I will trade that because that is reversal pattern (phoenix). Without consolidation (pattern) risk is still too high and I will just wait. I don’t expect (for now) to see daily “V” bottom. I will expect more whippy daily action and because of that I think risk for swing traders remains the same. The safest way to trade now is trading intraday moves (day/scalp). So for me everything remains the same.
If you have any questions, please email me or ask me in the trading room.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 08/03/2007

Good day!
A summer day at the beach would have been more productive than the summer day of trading we had. We didn't even have the volatility of the past few days. Basically a day of zzzzzzzz's. On the daily chart we can see that the previous support areas now become support areas and those held for now. Trading volume was lighter than the past few days.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08032007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08032007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08032007qqqq.jpg

Those who follow intraday market action witnessed a very choppy high risk trading day without a clear direction most of the day. Very similar action as we had on Wednesday. The last 30 min the Indices bounced (much weaker than Wednesday), but most of the action before was choppy without intraday trend. For me this was a day not worth trading. During these type days, I will trade with very small risk and if the first and second trade won't go I will quit for the rest of the day. Risk was to high and I am not the best in a scalp market. Exactly the kind of market we had yesterday.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08032007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08032007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08032007qqqq60.jpg

Unfortunately I expect the same type action today. Perhaps the job report before the market opens or a bunch of unexpected earnings will move the market but I doubt it. August in my experience is the worse trading month. Most days we see very sloppy action without a trend or with very slow intraday trends and very small volume. I guess that is why all the traders are at the Hampton's on vacation. I will be out next week (not a the Hampton's) and I will be back at August 13, 2007.

Remember, today we have summer Friday and market correction from strong move down. If in the morning we will have similar action as yesterday, I will quit trading after the first 90 min.

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 08/14/2007

Good day!

It looks like I didn’t miss a thing last week. I did notice the market was quite volatile with a nice bull trap on Thursday. That action brought volume and strong selling pressure which closed today with a morning gap up. The daily bull trap could bring more selling pressure and that is the scenario which I will follow. Since the market didn’t have enough time for a good low risk setup risk will remain higher.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08142007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08142007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08142007qqqq.jpg

Back to yesterdays action. I didn’t have much luck with my vacation and obviously I didn’t have luck with my first trading day after vacation. The Indices stayed in a range which we can see on the 60 min chart. Action was from high to low and all days time frames. The didn’t have strength to break 20sma 60 min and didn’t have the weakness to back on daily low support area. Selling pressure and some intraday action came too late for us (before close) and I wasn’t interested in scalps before the close.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08142007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08142007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08142007qqqq60.jpg

Since we had market that supported only fast trades our action was the same (PRU, GOOG, PHTN). If we look at the 60 min charts we can see a divergence between stronger QQQQ chart and weaker DIA chart. The QQQQ suggest that we could see break up and equal move as target area. On the other side the DIA is weak and before close broke 60 min triangle as a short setup. That clearly is a direction that will bring more risk in an already high risk market. The QQQQ made NR7 bar yesterday that usually suggests a possible trend day. I will look for that possibility but I want note that we are right now in a high risk market and we must trade with small risk to save our capital for better days. I think that will be next month, so please keep that in mind. We are still in August the worst trading month. My bias is on short side, and the daily bull trap can bring more selling pressure. But my focus will stay same, and that is on intraday moves and I don’t plan to stay in any trade over night, unless we will find an “own way” chart.

If you have any questions, please email me or ask me in the trading room.

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]