US market commentary

Market commentary for 03/12/2007

Good day!
Friday we saw an intraday continuation after strong gap up in the morning due to the favorable job report. The market liked it but unfortunately seller sold into the rally. The QQQQ was the weakest index and filled the gap quickly. The DIA and the SPY filled their gaps shortly after the QQQQ. We saw continued chop after midday consolidation and finished in the middle of the day action.
The DIA finished the week under the 100sma on the daily chart and more important under the 20sma weekly resistance area. Those areas will be a strong challenge in the coming days.The 10sma is now the support area on the daily chart.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03122007diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03122007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03122007dia60.jpg

The SPY is strongest on the daily chart. On Friday the SPY spent some time above the 100sma resistance area, but the whole market was to weak to stay above that area since that is the 20sma weekly area too. On the 60 min chart we can see that last two days was just consolidation the same range as the 29th February. Identical situation is with DIA 60 min chart.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03122007spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03122007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03122007spy60.jpg

The QQQQ has the most volatility right now and brings more intraday action (opportunity) for faster traders (scalp, day). In addition, it is the weakest index right now. Since Fridays continuation was enough for Thursday low for the DIA and the SPY the QQQQ wasn’t satisfied with that area and touched Wednesday low which can see easily be seen on the 60 min red support line. On the weekly chart the green bar is the smallest which is telling us that trades on the short side can be counted for more action if we will stick with the SPY.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03122007qqqqweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03122007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03122007qqqq60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03122007qqqq30.jpg

It is now a week after the climatic selling and we saw a correction from the weekly low. The SPY was strongest index and closed under the 20sma. Weekly volumes are still above average. I expect the weekly low will hold for some time. Two cases can be made. The first is consolidation on the daily chart between 100sma and daily low area. That is a wild range area and will need more time for the indices to calm down. We can expect whippy daily action with back and forth action. Second case is a bounce and continuation above the 20sma weekly resistance area and trying to see daily/weekly high area. That can be 20sma daily resistance (blue line) or more, but in that case we can expect longer term (several weeks) daily/weekly action without clear trend. Right now, I don’t see clear picture for swing traders since I don’t see a clear daily trend. For a continued move down, we need more daily rest since the bounce last week was strong. This is especially true for the DIA and the SPY. In addition, the QQQQ needs at least few more days for a daily bear flag possibility. I am ready for another consolidation week. Risk remains higher and I will again stay more with intraday action plus "own way" swing possibilities like several we took last week. They all doing ok for now, and only reason why I love them is they are "own way" and they don’t react to market activity for now.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
 
Market commentary for 03/13/2007

Good day!
We saw range day action with a bounce after the 14:00 ET reversal period. That was about it from the market action yesterday. The 100sma daily is still too big of a resistance. The 14:00 ET intraday bounce was strong and that suggested a possible continuation which did not materialize. The DIA was the strongest again and made new high. It was not strong enough to break the 100sma daily and 200sma on the 30 min chart.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03132007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03132007dia60.jpg

The SPY wasn’t that strong and all day stayed in Friday's range. On the daily chart we can see that brown line (100sma) is still above.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03132007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03132007spy60.jpg

The QQQQ is the weakest index on the daily chart and yesterday had similar intraday action like the SPY. Fridays high was too strong. Right now we can see a 60 min double top possibility and with SPY daily resistance I will use caution for the long side today

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03132007qqqq.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03132007qqqq60.jpg

Yesterday we had light trading volume and that continues to be a big problem. On the daily chart we can see that volume decline which is normal after a huge market move. We can see that during the volume decline we had several up days. In the classic down trend action we like to see light volume on a correction (base, triangle, base), and bigger volume on the move down. Because of that the 100sma will still be a problem today for a move up, I will start to look for a possible swing short on the daily chart. We have a number of possible swing opportunities like: FO, CI, KMB, SKM CAL etc, and I will start with less risk and then I will add my positions when I will see market support. I will not expect to see a daily equal move because I still think that daily lows are still strong supports for Indices. However if the market starts with a move down today that will be my focus target area. Of course I will follow market action. In the case the Indices bounce to intraday highs I will use that strength only for day trade opportunities. For more on the long side with a low risk breakout the Indices still need to have a daily/60 min consolidation (base, triangle, flag)

Good luck trading today!!!!
I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions.
Ivica Juracic
 
Market commentary for 03/14/2007

Good day!
After several slightly positive days on light volume, yesterday we had a trend day down with an increase in volume. That was the expectation as we saw on the daily charts. Usually when the market has a strong intraday move the 20sma on the 5 min is very important support/resistance area. Yesterday the 20sma on the 5 min was resistance and we can see that every try to break down didn’t finish well. The DIA and the SPY were weaker than the QQQQ and on the 5 min charts that was very clear.
After gap down the DIA couldn’t fill the gap and the 20sma on the 60 min was the key resistance area. The bounce from there was the signal for the move down. The previous daily low is now the support area.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03142007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03142007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03142007dia5.jpg

The SPY again had similar action and on the 60 min chart we can see the second try to break up is always a high risk possibility. The reason is a double top pattern possibility and on 60 min charts, we can see that action. Because of that my favorite pattern is a 3rd try triangle.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03142007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03142007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03142007spy5.jpg

The QQQQ was strongest index yesterday, but that is only relative in the whole scheme of things. This time the double top did very nice and the QQQQ finished at its daily low support area

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03142007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03142007qqqq60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03142007qqqq5.jpg

Now what? We saw what we expected and that was a daily move down. Can market continue this move down or not? Yesterday was good day to catch swing short trades and we took number of them (AV, FO, ADM, PNK, LINTA, GPN) and since we already have open swing shorts we can say that we are already in a short position. That was yesterday. Usually after a trend day we can expect to see a consolidation day. That means a correction after a move (base, triangle, and flag). That is normal. Nothing can go straight down without rest. Because of that swing setups will be high risk trades. “Own way” stocks don’t care much about market action and I will look for those setups. If selling pressure is high again we could see another strong move down. That is because if the daily lows (From March 1) don't hold we could see more panic and that always brings sellers in to move the market down. Those are the possibilities we can expect today. A third possibility is panic selling at the open and a strong reversal up or a V bottom. The charts in my opinion are not pointing to that possibility. In this business anything can always happen so I will follow the market and plan from there. I will focus more on intraday moves and faster trades. My focus will be on the strongest and weakest names for intraday moves.

Good luck trading today!!!!
I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions.
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]
 
Market commentary for 03/15/2007

Good day!
Yesterday's intraday action was very strong in both directions. The day started with selling pressure to the previous daily support area. At that time Indices forming a double bottom and starting panic selling reversed and started a strong move up forming a V bottom with increased volume. This was a sign that the daily lows will hold this time.
The daily was weakest in the morning and came in to new daily low. When we talk about support, that isn’t exactly price, it is an area. The same situation was with DIA. After it hit bottom at 13:00 ET buyers came and take control for rest of day. This time volume was stronger and finished day in positive area. On the daily chart we got pivot with higher volume what indicate that we saw daily lows for now.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03152007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03152007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03152007dia5.jpg

On the 5 min SPY chart we can see double bottom more clearly and rest of day was similar to the DIA action. We can see on the 60 min charts that the 20sma is again the resistance area. It is significant resistance area and if it is broken today that will be sign for market strength. That is same area as 10sma on the daily chart (brown line)

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03152007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03152007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03152007spy5.jpg

The QQQQ was strongest again. We can see the double bottom pattern on the daily and 5 min chart. Also the QQQQ finished above 10sma and 20sma 60 min.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03152007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03152007qqqq60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03142007qqqq5.jpg

One of yesterdays possibilities was selling in the morning and a strong bounce. That is exactly what we saw. We saw more than 3 buying waves on the 5 min chart which is telling us the Indices need to see 30/60 min consolidation for a low risk pattern. That is usual after V bottoms and because of that I will expect a high risk market. This time my focus will be on the long side since I believe the market has put in a bottom. It is best to stay with intraday moves and I expect more back and forth action (consolidation action). I will look for the strongest and weakest names to trade that will be least affected by a whippy market. It is important to note that quadruple option expiration is Friday and that will bring more whippy action, especially on Friday.

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
 
Market commentary for 03/16/2007

Good day!
We finally had a consolidation day after two big range days. Generally, before the market can move in either direction it needs to rest. That is important to always remember in your trading. Note on the daily the 10sma resistance area is still a problem for DIA and the SPY.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/0316007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/0316007dia60.jpg

Despite breaking the 20sma 60 min area that move did not bring more strength to the market. Note the SPY stayed in the previous resistance area on the 60 min chart (red lines).

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/0316007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/0316007spy60.jpg

It was hard to tell which index was the strongest yesterday but that isn’t very important after range action. For a lower risk setup, we like to see a longer 60 min consolidation. Perhaps that can bring us to the daily area from where Tuesday's selling started.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/0316007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/0316007qqqq60.jpg

There is one problem to be very aware of this morning and that quadruple expiration today. I doubt that we will see nice a consolidation today and then break up in the afternoon. Anything can happen but I can't remember that kind action on a Friday. But you never know that is the reason we watch the market. I expect a more difficult day for trading than yesterday. With heavy expiration volume, we can see a very whippy day. Including false breakouts, stops and then strong bounces back. I usually don’t trade on these type of days but if I do that only way to avoid false moves is to use bigger stop amounts and less profit expectations. It will be harder to see good r/r possibilities.

Good luck trading today!!!!
I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions.
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]
 
Market commentary for 03/19/2007

Good day!
Friday was a difficult trading day with whippy selling pressure that ended up being a consolidation day. While the market was in line with expectations what concerns me now is what I see on the daily charts. This is after a strong Wednesday reversal move and a consolidation day we didn’t see any continuation. The DIA is weakest index and continued on Friday. On the 60 min charts resistance and support area are now very important areas and which ever breaks first that could prove to be the swing direction.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03192007diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03192007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03192007dia60.jpg

The same situation is with the SPY which again is in the middle of the 20sma 60 min resistance and the first problem for Monday. You can see the slight pullback continued on Friday

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03192007spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03192007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03192007spy60.jpg

The QQQQ was strongest on Friday but it still lacked intraday direction. We can see that the QQQQ stayed all day in range and gave us second consolidation day in row.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03192007qqqqweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03192007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03192007qqqq60.jpg

The daily range is coming to an important area because we could see a 3rd try to break down and we all know that 3rd try is often the charm. In that case I think we could see another leg down to 200sma daily support area. The Indices don’t have much time for that option because the 200sma is coming up and if they will stay in that daily range for too long we will come to a situation that risk/reward for that possibility will be limited. Also when we have strong close at support we can often see a slightly lower low on 3rd try and then a strong reversal. That means the Indices don’t have much time for lower risk break down. If the Indices break up from the daily range we could see them back up above the 20sma daily. Those are just two options that we could have. Today is important to see if the DIA and SPY can finish day above 10sma daily resistance area (brown line) or could lead to daily 3rd try to break down. Since we don’t have clear a direction the risk remains high. ARXT gave us nice profit after halted. Those situations are part of luck and this time was on our side.

Good luck trading today!!!!
I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions.
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]
 
Market commentary for 03/20/2007

Good day!
We started the day with a nice gap up. After morning weakness around the 10:00ET reversal time the Indices found a support area and continued on to new intraday highs.
For the DIA that meant a slightly higher high on the 60 min chart, but still above 10sma daily resistance area. On the 5 min chart we can easily see that 200sma was bounce area and after three buying waves DIA saw yesterday high of day. The rest of the day stayed in very nice consolidation area which could lead the DIA to a new 60 min buying wave.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03202007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03202007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03202007dia5.jpg

The SPY showed similar action and it brought two buying waves on the 5 min chart after bounce from 200sma. The rest of day it consolidated which can easily be seen on the 5 min chart.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03202007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03202007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03202007spy5.jpg

The QQQQ morning action touched the 20sma daily resistance area. Most of time it will be hard to break that area on the first try. The rest of day QQQQ stayed in consolidation with more of a flag action and showed the most weakness during the afternoon.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03202007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03202007qqqq60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03202007qqqq5.jpg

Overall we had slow day after the morning. The rest of day was mostly high risk for trading, with lower than average volume and lack of an intraday trend. The QQQQ 60 min bull flag, the SPY and the DIA base give me a bias that today will be bullish. The SPY and the DIA both have enough room for a move up to the 20sma daily resistance area and that will be my focus for today. The next two days the FED meets with the announcement Wednesday at 2:15pm. I expect market strength going into that announcement. The QQQQ will have harder time because it already has touched the 20sma and that is still a resistance area. I think the QQQQ will lag the other indices because of that reason. A move today to the 20sma on the 60 min is an important support area and that is what I will follow on the intraday action.
Good luck trading today!!!!
I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions.
Ivica Juracic
 
Market commentary for 03/22/2007

Good day!
Morning started with weak action after the QQQQ gap up. That gap was filled very quickly after open. Morning selling found bottom around 10:00 ET reversal period. Rest of day before FED announcement we saw very slow range action, what is usual activity. Obviously market like FED news and we saw strong reaction. Volumes pick up and Indices broke strong from intraday range. Rest of day we saw just buying, buying, buying.
Important is that we have stronger volume then days before what telling us about market interest. The INDU was weakest and only one who closed under 50sma daily resistance area, and that will be focus for next day. That is very strong and important resistance area. Also little wore on the DIA yesterday action is volume. It is inch higher then days before, so I will closely pay attention on action there.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03222007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03222007dia60.jpg

The SPY was much stronger and closed above all daily moving averages, what is very positive, because all those resistance now become to be support area. Same is with weekly 10 and 20sma areas.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03222007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03222007spy60.jpg

The QQQQ was strongest and finished day in overbought area measured by daily CCI. Volume was higher then days before and closed above all moving averages. Also important to see that after FED announcement, 60 min chart brought 4th buying wave, with strong pace, but still 4th wave. With overbought chart, extended chart, and chart on resistance area only what we can expect today is consolidation day.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03222007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03222007qqqq60.jpg

In the other words that mean: it will be very hard to find good long setup with lower risk. Maybe some fast trades, but swing traders need to wait few days to see market action. Bias is now on long side, but we need to see rest after several long days and from that consolidation, we could expect future action. Because of that my activity will be smaller then usual and I will be focused on intraday action and “own way” stocks.
Good luck trading today!!!!
I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions.
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]
 
Market commentary for 03/23/2007

Good day!
After the strong move on Wednesday we had an unexpected but welcome consolidation day. It was a difficult day for trading since we had very little action. The best trades were individual names like MLHR which was a daily bull trap.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03232007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03232007dia30.jpg

All the Indices had similar action and on the 30 min charts was a nice consolidation (base) pattern. The SPY made book cp pattern and has a nice 200sma 60 min support under yesterday base. This is one of my favorite setups. I was really happy when I saw the daily patterns and now I am very cautious.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03232007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03232007spy30.jpg

When everything is too perfect I start to ask myself where is the trap or perhaps we could see a false breakout today. I haven't completed my scanning, but I am willing to bet I will find a lot continuation patterns.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03232007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03232007qqqq30.jpg

When we have continuation pattern it is easy to trade them. Setup is above the small range high and stop is under small range low. That is exactly what I will do today. The Indices on the daily charts the morning bias is definitely on the long side. We will see what of day that will bring us. Don’t forget today is Friday and that isn’t best day for trading. If we will see a strong pace breakout in the morning with volume confirmation we could easily see trend day. It is very important today to see a reaction from 20sma on the 30 min chart. For a continuation pattern I expect a bounce from that support area.
Yesterday we had a NR7 bar (narrowest bar in last 7 days). That means we have an increased possibility for a trend day. When everything sounds perfect that starts to worry me. Because of that I will start with smaller risk and after the 60 min confirmation I will add to my positions. In the trend class we talked about that 60 min mark and I will use that today, just in case we get reversal trend day.
Good luck trading today!!!!
I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions.
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]
 
Market commentary for 03/27/2007

Good day!
We ended up having another consolidation day. With the housing starts number, way below expectation the market sold off immediately after it was reported at 10am. Weak handed bulls were shaken from the market and the indices spent the rest of the day coming back to close at break even. I do believe technical damage was done with the 60 min pennants of the DIA and SPY breaking down.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03262007diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03262007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03262007dia60.jpg

The breakdown was strong and there was a volume confirmation. We can see that the support area was very strong yesterday. My focus was on the short side because the bounce wasn’t strong and it started as most consolidations. I was looking for possible continuation around 13:00 area. But slowly but surely the indices regained most of the morning loss with the QQQQ finishing the day in green territory.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03262007spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03262007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03262007spy60.jpg

As stated earlier the market shook the weak hands and day finished near Friday’s close. The daily 50sma is very important area now. For the SPY and the QQQQ at support area and the DIA is at resistance area (green line on the daily chart).

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03262007qqqqweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03262007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03262007qqqq60.jpg

For today I expect a similar day as yesterday. Swing traders still have a higher risk market. We had some nice open swings that are own way stocks. We will continue today looking for the same type intraday setups like FCX, PEG and PLCM yesterday. For a swing move the market needs to rest next couple of days. The longer the better. Until then I will not expect to see risk change for swing traders. If open swing trades will improve then I will add to my positions on next intraday setup possibility. If I will must take a guess which way the market will go short term it will be on the short side but that is only guessing.


Yesterday was good day for intraday moves. PEG is good example. This is setup chart:
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03262007peg.jpg

This is good example why is risk/reward most important for me. Setup was above 82, with stop under 81.90. That was do or die situation. PEG held strong all day and 10sma 15 min was nice intraday support area. Because of that, I was move stop with that support. Final target area was 83 areas, but PEG didn't see that. Exit was at 82.75. Here is exit chart:
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03272007peg.jpg

Risk was 15 cents and gain is 70 cents, and at the end that was 0.85% gain what is small. Risk/reward is 4.67 what is great. PEG trade will cover several negative trades and because of that i don't count success with points. Risk/reward is best for that.

Wish you all good trading today
Ivica
 
Market commentary for 03/28/2007

Good day!
We got another consolidation range day. The DIA still has problems with the 50sma daily resistance area, while the SPY and the QQQQ are using the same resistance area for support. Again it was hard day for trading because of the range day. We did not see an intraday trend. We were still able to get a few nice trades such as MIR and AMLN. A few swings such as VNO and BXP did very well also.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03282007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03282007dia60.jpg

On the 60 min chart you can see that Indices continue to have problems with the 20sma. That is difference between selling and buying bias. Depend on that support/resistance area the Indices will choose the direction

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03282007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03282007spy60.jpg

Right now, it is very hard to predict direction in the coming days. It will be best if the market will stay in consolidation for the rest of week since that will lead the indices in a weekly continuation pattern.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03282007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03282007qqqq60.jpg

While the Indices stay between the 60 min 20sma and the 200sma risk will stay high. We can only count on fast intraday opportunities as low risk trades. That will be my main focus for now. Every swing trade I will take I will start with small position if the market improves on the next 30/60 min opportunity I will add my position. This is very dangerous time because most of inexperienced traders fall in an overtrading trap and lose money. A good trader must recognize the risk. If he/she can do that everything else is in his/her hands. Right now patience is our best friend. Because of that I will wait and I will trade small with smaller risk until market will decides on a direction.

Good luck trading today!!!!
I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions.
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]
 
Market commentary for 03/29/2007

Good day!

If we look 60 min charts, you will see that we didn’t saw much of intraday action. Looking from that side, we didn’t saw good low risk opportunities. After the morning gap down, Indices started with whippy 5/15 min action. The QQQQ was strongest and only one filled morning gap down.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03292007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03292007dia60.jpg

The DIA was weakest and took every chance to make new lows. Because of that divergence we had high risk market action, because we didn’t know at that time what direction market will make. The SPY didn’t help any side because on the 60 min chart we can see range action and the SPY stayed in same formation whole day.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03292007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03292007spy60.jpg

The SPY and the DIA reach daily support areas. The SPY is at 1000and 100sma on the daily chart, while the DIA at 20sma daily support area. Those are strong daily support areas and it will be harder to break that support areas after three selling ways on the 60 min chart.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03292007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03292007qqqq60.jpg

The QQQQ have room to reach 20sma daily chart support area and I will expect more weakness there today. If those areas will be broken today Indices will have open room to back to the previous daily support area. But since we don’t have daily consolidations on those support areas right now is hard to predict that move. Unfortunately, right now look that Indices won’t gave us handle formation and that bring us to wild daily range possibility, what will bring more whippy action on the daily chart. My bias for this morning is more weakness, but since Indices are already at support areas or close to support areas it is hard to predict selling pace possibility. That mixed situation bringing high risk for new setups, especially for swing trades. Because of that I will follow market action at open (despite of open) and I will focus on intraday moves. For now open short trades doing well, and we will move our stop despite of market action in the morning. Use caution on new setups before market decides what direction will take. Until Indices will stay in that wild daily range we can expect higher risk and lots of indecisions.

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]
 
Market commentary for 03/30/2007

Good day!
The final 4th quarter GDP number is better than expected and the market gaps at the open, then the price of oil tops 66 dollars a barrel and the market comes tumbling down.

We got exactly what I predicted yesterday. Look at the 60 min charts. The DIA and the SPY don’t give us any intraday trend action. We had 5 min trend action, but that was choppy action with a slow pace and without a larger time frame support. That is good only for faster trades (scalp trades). The QQQQ was weakest index as we expected and gave us the best intraday action. As mention yesterday it had enough room to fall to the daily 20sma support area.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03302007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03302007dia60.jpg

It is interesting to follow the key reversal periods. We always can expect some action and we had some yesterday. This time the 14:00 ET reversal period was key the for move down and exactly at 14:00 the Indices saw the bottom. Of course it isn’t only enough to watch reversal periods. The whole picture is very important. The daily support area reversal period gave us some nice results.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03302007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03302007spy60.jpg

After the 14:00 bottom the Indices started with a bounce. It was stronger than expected and put us into positive territory. The daily consolidation continues. We have a possibility to see a cup and handle pattern on the daily chart. After last week strong move up, we had that handle possibility. We just didn’t know what pattern that will be. Base and bull flag are not possible, so we can expect triangle possibility. Of course in case that will be the handle.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03302007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03302007qqqq60.jpg

All that means we have two possible scenarios now. One is daily cup with triangle handle, and second is back to daily lows and wild daily range action. We probably will see again mixed action again today, because we still don’t have a daily trend. That mean we must trade with intraday trends and that means smaller time frame trades without whole picture support. Risk will stay higher. Also we must be aware that this is Friday and the last trading day of the first quarter. typically that will bring window dressing activity. That also will increase risk and I expect to see another very slow trading day with small number of low risk setups. Stay patient the market can remain like this for some time. We must recognize this and use patience and wait for our new opportunities.
Good luck trading today!!!!
I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions.

Ivica Juracic
[email protected]
 
Market commentary for 04/02/2007

Good day!
Friday was more whippy then expected, but reason for that was Iran Oil news. Without that we would had usually Friday choppy action. After all day finished without many changes. Indices gave us daily doji bar. Now what? End of month, and of quarter. Always good time for bigger time frame scanning (monthly) to see what we can expect. End of this analyze will be high risk mixed market action, and hope after this everyone will understand why.
Lets start with monthly charts. The DIA touched 10sma support area and after several months long uptrend that is first support area. With monthly high and 10sma support that could very easily lead to monthly consolidation, what is usual action after the trend. Volume was higher then usual what is good sign that support area could hold for some time. Same situation we can see on the SPY monthly chart. Volume is here more expressed then on the DIA chart. That lead to possibility that 10sma will hold for next month.
The QQQQ is in monthly range for some time and touched same support area but without much higher volume. It is inch higher. From Monthly chart we can expect from Indices that will stay for some time in range what just started, range what the QQQQ already have. This is not good sign for future months because range action is hardest time for trading. Since most of us are trend trades, without trend risk will increase.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04022007diamonthly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04022007spymonthly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04022007qqqqmonthly.jpg

Lets go on the weekly charts. We can see same range but now we can see reaction after from strong selling at 02/27/2007. All Indices bounced from support area, but not that strong as selling pace in to support. At same time volume decrease, what isn’t reaction what we like to see for long continuation. All are around 10 and 20sma resistance area. From that action, I will expect to see two possibilities. One is back to daily high resistance area what will bring us weekly double top. Everything more will be, right now, big surprise for me. Second is weekly bear flag and back to support area. Remember monthly charts; from them, I expect that 10sma monthly will hold. If we will connect that with weekly chart, in selling case range support area will be reasonable target area.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04022007diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04022007spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04022007qqqqweekly.jpg

Lets go future on the daily charts. To see what we can expect at Monday. After daily double bottom, we got strong bounce in to the gap resistance area. That is good for long side, unfortunately that wasn’t with some extra big volume and because of that I’m suspicion. Last week on the daily chart we can see consolidation days (correction, pullback). That could lead to the daily cup and handle pattern. On the QQQQ for now that is bull flag, same action is with the SPY too. The DIA us more unclear action, I will say range action between daily 50sma resistance area and support area (blue line). Right now I don’t see clear direction there, because weekly and monthly charts don’t help us with that decision. The QQQQ daily bull flag (blue lines) can break up), but the DIA range can easily break down. If will break up we can say, well it is expectable from monthly chart. Obviously, 10sma monthly holding nice. If will break down we can say; it is logical if we look weekly bear flag.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04022007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04022007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04022007qqqq.jpg

Look like we can say with high % future direction. At least weekly or monthly direction. It is hard to predict this week prediction, because daily handle can be broken and Indices could back to monthly/weekly/daily support area. Since it isn’t clear daily handle consolidation, only we can say is to follow 60 min charts and see where will go first.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04022007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04022007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04022007qqqq60.jpg

When we have that mixes situation without clear direction best way is to wait main move, main break and then wait consolidation and see if can see continuation or not. When action is mixed risk of false breakout is higher. So my plan is to see where will 60 min QQQQ triangle break, or SPY channel, or the DIA range. I won’t go with main breakout (because of false breakouts risk). I will wait consolidation after breakout and that will be my focus. Right now patience is big friend and it is very important to use it. Hope that is now more clear why is risk higher, why need to be less active then usual and why is important to protects our capital until market will decide for direction. I will not wait monthly range breakout, because I can wait on that way for months, but I will wait at least daily situation for increase my trading risk.

If anyone will have any questions, I am always available via email and in the trading room.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]
 
Market commentary for 04/04/2007

Good day!
After several consolidation days the indices finally started to move yesterday. They opened with a gap up and continued without correction. The DIA was the strongest and it came into previous daily resistance area and started to consolidate.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04042007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04042007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04042007qqqq.jpg

During midday, all the indices formed a very nice base at the highs which was nice sign of strength. Unfortunately the DIA and the SPY broke the afternoon base to early (before 14:00 reversal period) and gave slightly higher high which can easily see on the 60 min chart. That action increased risk for a healthy move up.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04042007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04042007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04042007qqqq60.jpg

For an ideal situation the Indices must stay in the base until the 14:00 reversal period and 20sma support area on the 15 min chart. On charts we can see that early DIA and SPY breakout destroyed 20sma bounce possibility and for the rest of day we didn’t get opportunity for low risk setups. Indices stayed in range action until end of day.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04042007dia15.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04042007spy15.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04042007qqqq15.jpg

On the daily charts, we can see that the DIA has the most room before the 02/27 resistance area and I will expect to see that today for a possible move up. That is my bias for today. I will look for the long side in the morning and I will expect the DIA to lead that possibility. Important intraday support area now is 20sma on the 30 min chart. Depends on the open in the morning how we react, but until indices stay in an intraday range action risk will be high and best is to wait for a market move. Also it is important to watch volume as proof of a breakout. Another good situation for the long side is that all indices finished day above all moving averages and all them will become support areas now. The next few days in this Holiday week, I will look for the bullish side.
If anyone will have any questions, I am always available via email and in the trading room.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
 
Market commentary for 04/09/2007

Good day!
Thursday's action was in line with expectations. After Wednesday's NR7 bar we got trend day. Since Thursday was last trading day before the holiday weekend we got what we expected as I explained in the market commentary Thursday. The pace and volume were lighter than what we would like to see in a normal trend day. All the Indices closed higher on the daily/weekly charts which could lead to the possibility of closing 02/27 gap and back to the weekly highs. On the weekly charts we can easily see that. The light volume on this reversal is still a concern. We could see a double top or lower weekly high which still can move the market down. What we know for sure is we will not see new weekly lows very easily next week.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04092007diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04092007spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04092007qqqqweekly.jpg

On the daily charts we can see that Indices have room for a continued move up during the few next days, possibly to the previous high resistance area. The QQQQ has the most room for that. Right now we don’t have clear setup for that possibility because Indices are already on the move the last several days and for low risk we could expect only intraday possibilities. That leads us to the situation where we can recognize risk.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04092007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04092007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/0402007qqqq.jpg

Intraday charts (60 min and smaller) just confirms the above mention. After three up days we can expect a correction but on the other hand the Indices still have room for a further move up. On the 60 min charts, the 20sma is first important support area and it is also important to follow morning pace in any direction. Pace with volume is good combination for success.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04092007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04092007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/0402007qqqq60.jpg

There are several things which we must pay attention to. First is volume. The decrease on the daily move up which isn’t unusual during a holiday week, but its still lighter. A continued move up will bring higher risk unless the volume increases. Second is pace. It is slower than the selling pace which is normal after the strong selling that we got on 02/27. But it is still a slower pace. A lower daily high possibility is another scenario which we can expect and that can happen anytime since we already have a few up days on light volume.
Those are the reasons to know we can expect higher risk market for swing traders at the open of the new week. Friday the monthly job data is reported and that is another reason. We will see the reaction to that lon Monday. My biggest concern is still the possibility of a big weekly range action what can be our trading market during the next several months. I hope I’m wrong.
Hope you all had nice weekend and a great holiday. I wish you all a nice profitable week
If anyone has any questions, I am always available via email and in the trading room.

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]
 
Market commentary for 04/10/2007

Good day!
Today was a mixed trading day. We got a gap up on the jobs data and that gap filled right from the open. Key support area continues to be the 20sma on the 15 min charts. During the day the indices went back to the daily high area but again couldn’t stay strong and around 13:00 reversal period we saw another reversal.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04102007dia15.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04102007spy15.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04102007qqqq15.jpg

From the 14:00 reversal period the Indices tried to go back up to the daily high, but this time 20sma 15 min resistance area was too strong and they all closed under it.
After several up days, this isn’t an unusual market because on the 60 min chart we can see the buying pace is slowing and needs to rest (consolidation, correction). This is not automatically a short signal because we must see what kind of a consolidation (correction) the Indices give us today. For this consolidation the 20sma on the 60 min chart is very important support area. If the Indices break under that support area we can easily see more daily correction to the 10 or 20sma daily support area which are the first daily support areas.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04102007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04102007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04102007qqqq60.jpg

Despite yesterday's 15 min range action we got some nice intraday moves on DNDN as day trade and NBIX, FCX, ICOC, SWN and JRCC as swing trades. I expect the same kind of action today. The market remains a higher risk for swing trades because the Indices on the daily charts don’t have clear swing setup.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04102007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04102007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/0410007qqqq.jpg

It is important to compare stock action with market action and that way we will choose relatively strong and weak charts. I found number of swing long and short trades for today, but I first would like to see the market open and to see the market direction and compare that action with stocks actions.
If anyone has any questions, I am always available via email and in the trading room.
od luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]
 
Market commentary for 04/11/2007

Good day!
We got another range trading day, a total of 38 points movement in the dow. This is very difficult for equity traders because of a narrow range and intraday action without a trend is always higher risk. On the other side, stock traders had a very nice day Individual names gave us nice moves (JRCC, THQI, NBIX, ESLR, SONE, AMAT, MAC etc). Risk for today will stay the same as yesterday.
On the daily chart we didn't see any real change. The DIA started with the daily correction and the SPY and the QQQQ stayed in Monday range.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04112007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04112007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04112007qqqq.jpg

Yesterday's action can easy be seen on the 60 min charts. You can see how the QQQQ held the trend line and 20sma support area and at the end stayed strong enough for a possible break up today. The SPY stayed strong also, but the daily gap area is still a strong resistance area for now. There is also the 145 number resistance area and for healthy break up it needs more rest. The DIA was the weakest index and continued with rounding highs on the 60 min chart.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04102007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04102007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04102007qqqq60.jpg

What we got was a divergence between weak DIA and the stronger QQQQ. That will increase the risk for today with already mixed daily signals. I don’t have clear bias for today. We can see another intraday move up in the morning, but we can start with the daily correction also. My focus now will be on the correction side but the charts are not ready to give a short signal. The only signal is to use patience and wait for a good opportunity. On the long side I’m more interested for day trades and “own way” swing trades which has been doing well for us. Those who follow what I’m doing can see that after several good trading days which we have had, we can expect a time when patience is our best friend. Today is a day which I expect to be less active than usual. Risk is high for swing traders and best is to stick with smaller time frame trades.

Yesterday officially started the earnings season with AA reporting better than expected numbers. Earnings can and usually cause gaps in the morning indices making trading at the open risky whether the indices will consolidate and continue or correct and fill the gap. Be careful with overnight trades not only with companies that are reporting but sectors that could influence your positions.
I will advise traders in the trading room of potential problems, but it is important that you understand the risk.
If anyone has any questions, I am always available via email and in the trading room.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]
 
Market commentary for 04/12/2007

Good day!
The indices started their daily correction. It was a bit stronger than I would like to see because it makes a move up move difficult in the future. I expect choppy daily action in the coming days. Yesterday started with gap up on the DIA and the SPY 60 min charts. It wasn’t a significant gap up and from the open we saw selling pressure and gap was filled very quickly. The market continued with selling pressure and 20sma on 60 min did not hold. On the 60 min chart we can see the selling pace from highs is stronger than the buying pace in to the highs. We can also see the volume increase. Those two signals are enough to see that bears controlled market action yesterday. I will mention the Fed minutes were considered hawkish toward future rate cuts and you can see the market accelerate the selling at 2pm edt.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04122007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04122007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04122007qqqq60.jpg

Previous resistance area becomes the new support area that easily can be seen on 60 min charts. On the daily charts we can see the 10sma (brown line) was the first support area. On the daily charts we can see the selling pace is stronger and selling volume is higher.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04122007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04122007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/04122007qqqq.jpg

We still didn’t get a clear swing short signal. Most of time the stronger pace with higher volume will be enough for a selling continuation, but if we look at the daily charts we can see that lots of moving average support areas are very close. That shows we don’t have enough room for a continued move down without support and for good risk/reward. On the short side we can see the selling pace was strong with higher volume and that is not good sign for a bullish bias. When we add earning season I will expect choppy daily action. That action will bring a difficult time for stock traders too, because we always like to see market action as support. In the morning I will look for continuation of the selling pressure and I don’t expect a ton. I think the Indices will start with bounce from the daily support area. That will be my focus. My focus today will be on the smaller time frame trades and “own way” swing possibilities. Unfortunately, if we take a look on the weekly charts we can see that Indices started with bigger range action for now and we can see tough trading period. That does not mean we won't have chances for trading, it mean we will must include extra work to find good names and that is always period when experienced traders stay above water and new traders lose their accounts. Please use proper risk management and if anyone has any questions, I am always available via email and in the trading room. Feel free to contact me.

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
 
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