Ukraine invasion

CavaliereVerde said:
Putin is a gangster and a terrorist.
There is nothing to negotiate with criminals.
If he acheives something in 4 years it will be the same somewhere else, maybe even befor with Transninstria vs Moldova.
Every country with nukes (China?) will feel allowed to invade and bully a non Nato country.
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Yet even the police employ negotiators when a hostage is involved. Today the hostage is Ukraine but they won't be the last. The cost of taking a hostage has to be shown to be too great to repeat. But meanwhile, we should do what we can to secure the release of the hostage

The naked truth is that every powerful country is already free to invade and bully countries without powerful alliances. That risk cannot be eliminated. But when it happens we must show the cost to be too high.
 
CavaliereVerde said:
Russia can resist for no more than 3 months with these sanctions.
If Ukraine will resist they will be in the position to ask for total withdrawal of Russia conceding only Crimea (that is already Russia).
Putin will look like a winner in Russia and a loser for the rest of the world, the other silovki will suggest him to resingn. It will be substituted by someone coming from the army.
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With respect CV, this reads more like a wish list - a prayer - than it does a workable solution!

Personally, I doubt the sanctions will make much difference, not least because Putin will have factored them in already. He may be a gangster, but he's not stupid. Underestimating him is the biggest mistake 'we' can make. Besides which, three months is a long time, Keeev (as we're mandated to call it now), will fall within three weeks - let alone three months. Then it's game over and Russia has won and Xi Jinping will have the green light to invade Taiwan.
Tim.
 
timsk said:
He may be a gangster, but he's not stupid. Underestimating him is the biggest mistake 'we' can make.
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He is not stupid but he already made a big mistake, underestimating the motivation of Ucrainians and the support from the west (=rest of the world).
timsk said:
Besides which, three months is a long time, Keeev (as we're mandated to call it now), will fall within three weeks -
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Let's wait and see who is right, every strategist was betting Kiev to last for max 3 days.
 
Too many CV's on this thread ! :)

Don't underestimate the effect of the sanctions against Putin's Russia.
Russia close to a sovereign debt default and it's been less than a month.

Oligarks assets frozen or confiscated means they will be scrambling to save what they can (including the freedoms they have enjoyed). The last thing on their minds will be to pump money back into the Russia black hole to save Putin's ass.

Western Companies pulling out will directly affect GDP. Never to return, as in their eyes, Russia will have blown their one and only opportunity to embrace capitalism and be a trustworthy player.
Ordinary Russian people losing their livelihood which in turn will breed resentment. Slow but increasing groundswell of opposition and non cooperation.

Brain drain is already taking place. Young Russians leaving in droves, especially in the tech sector.
This may seem insignificant at first glance, but Russia's ability to conduct cyber warfare will be severely diminished. In fact the opposite is true. Western operators are wreaking havoc inside Russia with ongoing cyber hacks and attacks.

Russia has miscalculated in this current offensive and it will be a game changer. They have gotten away with it in the past, but no more.

On balance I think we are in a war situation. The difference these days, it's not conventional boots on the ground, but the ability to bring a country to it's knees, by other means, in very short order.
 
counter_violent said:
Brain drain is already taking place. Young Russians leaving in droves, especially in the tech sector.
This may seem insignificant at first glance, but Russia's ability to conduct cyber warfare will be severely diminished. In fact the opposite is true. Western operators are wreaking havoc inside Russia with ongoing cyber hacks and attacks.
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Spot on!!
Hackers were resource for Russia and now they are the enemy, probably working under the flag of Anonymous.
 
counter_violent said:
On balance I think we are in a war situation. The difference these days, it's not conventional boots on the ground, but the ability to bring a country to it's knees, by other means, in very short order.
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The C_Vs unite!
:ROFLMAO:

If you two believe in god, then my advice is that you both start praying to him/her morning, noon and night. I think a much more likely outcome is that Russia will emerge stronger, more resilient and self-sufficient. The only way sanctions might work would be if Putin had no market for Russian oil, gas and wheat. As things stand, all he has to do is to cozy up to China and, hey presto, problem solved. Meanwhile, the sanctions are having a real impact on the west; our useless and tyrannical leaders are telling us that we have to tighten our belts in order that we can adopt the moral high ground. If you ask me, it's us that has more to lose than Putin and Russia.

Whilst I hope you two are right, what's Putin going to do? It'll take time for sanctions to have any real impact. In the meantime, likely as not, Putin will have control of Ukraine, at which point my guess is that he'll invite the west to the negotiating table (who he'll have by the short 'n curlies) to lay out his terms. That's when we'll find out just how much our feckless, virtue signaling, ribbon wearing leaders really care about Ukrainians.
Tim.
 
China and Russia are much more enemies than you think.
Former cold war ended with USSR shrinking to Russia, this one will end with another round of shrinking.
Like it happened with Austrian empire.
Russia is the last empire, when you lose to many wars the empire ends.
 
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timsk said:
Whilst I hope you two are right, what's Putin going to do? It'll take time for sanctions to have any real impact.
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People can't withdraw cash anymore, Visa and Mastercard don't work anymore.
As Lenin said, we are always three meals away from a revolution.
Nobody cares about protests, everyone cares about a general strike.
 
timsk said:
The C_Vs unite!
:ROFLMAO:

If you two believe in god, then my advice is that you both start praying to him/her morning, noon and night. I think a much more likely outcome is that Russia will emerge stronger, more resilient and self-sufficient. The only way sanctions might work would be if Putin had no market for Russian oil, gas and wheat. As things stand, all he has to do is to cozy up to China and, hey presto, problem solved. Meanwhile, the sanctions are having a real impact on the west; our useless and tyrannical leaders are telling us that we have to tighten our belts in order that we can adopt the moral high ground. If you ask me, it's us that has more to lose than Putin and Russia.

Whilst I hope you two are right, what's Putin going to do? It'll take time for sanctions to have any real impact. In the meantime, likely as not, Putin will have control of Ukraine, at which point my guess is that he'll invite the west to the negotiating table (who he'll have by the short 'n curlies) to lay out his terms. That's when we'll find out just how much our feckless, virtue signaling, ribbon wearing leaders really care about Ukrainians.
Tim.
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If only it were that simple.





Have a look at this site.

www.statista.com

Russia: natural gas export pipelines capacity 2023 | Statista

Nord Stream was Russia's natural gas export pipeline with the highest annual capacity among operational pipelines, at 55 billion cubic meters as of 2023.
www.statista.com www.statista.com

Exporting to different customers is not a short term fix to Russia's problems.
All comes down to infrastructure and capacity.

People placing way to much faith in Russia's ability to overcome problems.

I might leave you with a further thought. Disrupting exports via pipelines is way simpler than many might think! Anything could happen at any time. Depending on how the situation unfolds.
 

Young people don't want to be slaves of a Russian empire ruled by tzar Putin.
He will run an empire of retired people.
They want to leave in a free country not to go back to USSR or become like China.
 
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CavaliereVerde said:

Young people don't want to be slaves of a Russian empire ruled by tzar Putin.
He will run an empire of retired people.
They want to leave in a free country not to go back to USSR or become like China.
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You may well be right but just how many young Russians have to get the f*** out of Dodge for the higher (and much older) ups to think that perhaps, after all, things are not going in the right direction?... and when that happens, how much longer will it be before enough of the oldsters decide that Vladimir needs to go and actually arrange his "retirement"?
 
Tim mentioned the Wests leadership. Very bad state of affairs in that dept.

Imagine Biden doesn't get through his term.

This is what awaits us.

 
Apparently, the attack near the Polish border on the training camp was to kill new international mercenaries going to fight in Ukraine. Approx., 180 killed.

Some foreign press talking about this but nothing on BBC or British press.
 
timsk said:
we now know that there are U.S. funded bio-labs in Ukraine - which makes Putin's claim about the encroachment eastwards of NATO towards Russia much more understandable, especially for those who previously thought he was merely saying this as some spurious justification for his actions.
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Those labs try to "reduce the threat of biological weapons proliferation." Maybe Putin is against that, so it could be a good reason for the Russian invasion?;)
www.bbc.com

Ukraine war: Fact-checking Russia's biological weapons claims

The BBC finds no evidence for Russian claims that Ukraine is developing biological weapons with US support.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com
The US provides technical support and, according to the US Embassy in Ukraine, "works with partner countries to counter the threat of outbreaks (intentional, accidental or natural) of the world's most dangerous infectious diseases".

There is no evidence that they work to produce biological weapons. In January, the US said its programme does the opposite and in fact aims to "reduce the threat of biological weapons proliferation".

There have been similar unsubstantiated claims by Russia in the past about US-backed biolabs operating in its neighbouring countries.
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Rufus_Leakey said:
Those labs try to "reduce the threat of biological weapons proliferation."
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Hi Rufus,
Well, if that's what you want to believe - that's your prerogative. In my experience, the BBC lie and misinform more than just about anyone else, so I take the view that: 'they would say that, wouldn't they'!

In the video below, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland (who was the architect of the 2014 coup in Ukraine) as good as confirms that the so called "research materials" (cough) - in bio'labs that supposedly didn't exist a few days ago - not only exist but are either dangerous and/or illegal. . .
rumble.com

US Assistant Secretary of State Nuland Admits The Existence of Biolabs in Ukraine

US Assistant Secretary of State Nuland Admits The Existence of Biolabs in Ukraine
rumble.com rumble.com

Further reading to help offset the propaganda coming out of the BBC and U.S.:
Documents expose US biological experiments on allied soldiers in Ukraine and Georgia

EXCLUSIVE WHO says it advised Ukraine to destroy pathogens in health labs to prevent disease spread​

Nobody is Checking for Violations of the Biological Weapons Convention​

IMO, below is an excellent, balanced and very comprehensive summary of the whole bio-labs debate and whether or not they are/were being used for nefarious purposes. Unless you're Neil Young or Joni Mitchell, It's by someone we can all trust: the man credited as being one of the inventors of mRNA technology used in the Covid vaccines, Dr. Robert Malone. He explains why he thinks he's in a position to offer comment on a topic which most of us don't really understand and know nothing about. Enjoy . . .

Ukraine Biolab Watchtower​

 
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Now chaps, please remind me - who are the sanctions aimed against, whose lives are supped to be restricted - ours or the Russians? I'm getting confused!!!
Experts warn diesel sales may be restricted from next month – Fears have grown that diesel could soon be rationed in Britain as world leaders scramble for solutions to reduce their countries’ energy dependency on Russia, reports the Mail.
 
timsk said:
Now chaps, please remind me - who are the sanctions aimed against, whose lives are supped to be restricted - ours or the Russians? I'm getting confused!!!
Experts warn diesel sales may be restricted from next month – Fears have grown that diesel could soon be rationed in Britain as world leaders scramble for solutions to reduce their countries’ energy dependency on Russia, reports the Mail.
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Everyone is losing, we are losing 10% of our spending power, russians are losing 90%.
Let's take the positive side of this, it will accellerate the phase out o fossil fuels.
No more global warming, no more pollution, no more wars because of oil.
 
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