Your memory's not wrong Tim, I've no connection with the military, just something I'm interested in, enough to keep informed.
Ukraine invasion
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counter_violent
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CavaliereVerde
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CavaliereVerde
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Illia seems unclear on actual history. Some Ukrainian voices are hell bent on dragging NATO into their war and to hell with the consequences.
At this point they probably feel they've nothing to lose, and that could be right. But war should be a last resort and we are a long way back from that awful step.
Atilla
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Zelensky said he is beginning to agree somethings with the Russians.
He is ready for talks with the Russians now that they are knocking at his door.
I like to ask why were these talks not looked upon warmly before the war?
He is asking for security guarantees from Russia as Russia was asking Ukraine not to join NATO for her security concerns. He cannot now see Ukraine joining NATO. No one can say he is stupid that's for sure.
He is ready for talks with the Russians now that they are knocking at his door.
I like to ask why were these talks not looked upon warmly before the war?
He is asking for security guarantees from Russia as Russia was asking Ukraine not to join NATO for her security concerns. He cannot now see Ukraine joining NATO. No one can say he is stupid that's for sure.
counter_violent
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This is the trap that the Russians like to play. If they were at all serious about talks as a solution to end the "special operation", then they could have gone down this route beforehand. They had zero interest in talks before and they have zero interest in talks moving forward.
Zelensky should continue in his resolve to rally the Ukrainians in defence of their principles and sovereignty of their country. Zelensky should make it clear to Macron and others to stop trying to appease Putin. The only way to de-legitimise Putin, is to stop talking to him all together.
Have you any idea how much that will piss him off? De-legitimise him by refusing to communicate with him about anything !
I know this tactic works, iv'e employed it dozens of times over the years.with great success.
That is how you undermine Putin. Just leave him hanging there not knowing what to think because there is no feedback loop for him to work with. He will soon be gone!
At some point Ukraine is going to have to talk with Russia about ending the war. The only way talks with Russia will not occur will be if a) Ukraine is 100% occupied by Russia and there is no Ukrainian government to negotiate with; or b) if Ukraine pushes all Russian forces out of their current territorial gains.
a) I'd be confident Russia doesn't want 100% occupation of Ukraine. The cost would be prohibitive. It would mean Putin had brought Russia's border right up against NATO's which is what he has convinced his allies they must not stand for. It makes Russia look irrationally aggressive to NATO, which would make a NATO pre-emptive attack more conceivable.
b) If Ukraine start to turn the tide of the war and push the Russians back to their starting positions, they will probably wish to open operations to recover the Crimea and the Donbas, which were lost to Russia years ago. NATO has never backed Ukraine in recovering these by military invasion. In any case, it will look unacceptable to the Russian state, to have started a war of "liberation" and been forced to walk away with nothing: Russia is going to need something they can regard as a win.
The likely outcome is NATO will force Ukraine to give up the territories gained by Russia this year with the aim of ending the fighting.
a) I'd be confident Russia doesn't want 100% occupation of Ukraine. The cost would be prohibitive. It would mean Putin had brought Russia's border right up against NATO's which is what he has convinced his allies they must not stand for. It makes Russia look irrationally aggressive to NATO, which would make a NATO pre-emptive attack more conceivable.
b) If Ukraine start to turn the tide of the war and push the Russians back to their starting positions, they will probably wish to open operations to recover the Crimea and the Donbas, which were lost to Russia years ago. NATO has never backed Ukraine in recovering these by military invasion. In any case, it will look unacceptable to the Russian state, to have started a war of "liberation" and been forced to walk away with nothing: Russia is going to need something they can regard as a win.
The likely outcome is NATO will force Ukraine to give up the territories gained by Russia this year with the aim of ending the fighting.
counter_violent
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CavaliereVerde
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But we are already at war, this is already WW3.
We are sending weapons and money to Ucraine,, with full embargo and sanctions to Russia.
I am sure that there are several covert ops by US and UK in Ucraine.
This is not WW3. The military action is limited to Russia & Belorus v's Ukraine. The US or UK government or anyone else would be crazy to risk their own military personnel getting identified, let alone caught inside Ukraine. The UK even withdrew its Ukrainian army training team before the fighting even started.
timsk
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I'm more with CV than I am with you on this issue, Tom. There's little doubt that there's a financial WW3 and propaganda WW3 taking place and we're sliding ever closer towards a military WW3. Liz Truss' shameful, shocking and totally irresponsible call to arms for anyone who wants to go to Ukraine to fight the Russians will, undoubtedly IMO, draw U.K. soldiers, mercenaries and 'have-a-go heroes' into the conflict. Putin will then claim - with considerable justification - that NATO has joined the party. God knows where that leads. If this whole mess escalates into full blown WW3 - a large part of the blame for that will lie with Liz Truss.
Tim.
We're not in a World War, we're in a Cold War. This is CW2, not WW3. There's a big difference between the two, we all remember, but a Cold War does not lead inevitably to a World War. We've been here before, we've done it before, and we've won it before.
timsk
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Hi Tom,
Apologies, I obviously didn't make my point very well which is that Liz Truss' call to arms crosses the line from cold war to actual war. Maybe not in your eyes, but almost certainly in Putin's. Also, we now know that there are U.S. funded bio-labs in Ukraine - which makes Putin's claim about the encroachment eastwards of NATO towards Russia much more understandable, especially for those who previously thought he was merely saying this as some spurious justification for his actions.
Tim.
P.S. As an aside, I must stress again that I don't support Putin and I don't like him or agree with his actions. The conflict is a catastrophe and he should call a ceasefire and withdraw his forces immediately. That said, contrary to what the west's propaganda would have us all believe, I don't think his actions are those of a megalomaniac mad man intent on world domination. We don't have to like him or agree with him in order to listen to him and to try and understand him.
Atilla
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I reckon this will simply turn into another proxy war.
Ukraine, if it doesn't seek peace with Russia will join the ranks of Iraq, Syria, Libya and other little countries caught in the cross-fire between super powers.
I think talk of WWars is a little over melo-dramatic right now.
Ukraine, if it doesn't seek peace with Russia will join the ranks of Iraq, Syria, Libya and other little countries caught in the cross-fire between super powers.
I think talk of WWars is a little over melo-dramatic right now.
This is all true and fair enough thanks Tim. The Foreign Secretary says UK citizens should go and fight, the Defence Secretary says they should not. They're both and trying to look tough when the law plainly says nobody from here can go and fight Russia. More to do with UK opinion polls and ambitious competition within the Conservative Party than meaningful interventions. Neither enforce the law.
I think NATO will shortly be saying to Ukraine, give up at least some your occupied eastern provinces and abandon all claims to the Crimea and Donbas - Russia must get something or there'll be nothing to negotiate about.
I think NATO will shortly be saying to Ukraine, give up at least some your occupied eastern provinces and abandon all claims to the Crimea and Donbas - Russia must get something or there'll be nothing to negotiate about.
counter_violent
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Debt deadline and central bank hikes loom in Russia
The cost of Russia's invasion of Ukraine will become a lot clearer next week, with a previously unthinkable sovereign default looming, more emergency central bank measures likely and a stock market crash guaranteed if it reopens.
CavaliereVerde
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Putin is a gangster and a terrorist.
There is nothing to negotiate with criminals.
If he acheives something in 4 years it will be the same somewhere else, maybe even befor with Transninstria vs Moldova.
Every country with nukes (China?) will feel allowed to invade and bully a non Nato country.
timsk
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So CV, in your view, what's the solution?
CavaliereVerde
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Russia can resist for no more than 3 months with these sanctions.
If Ukraine will resist they will be in the position to ask for total withdrawal of Russia conceding only Crimea (that is already Russia).
Putin will look like a winner in Russia and a loser for the rest of the world, the other silovki will suggest him to resingn. It will be substituted by someone coming from the army.
If Ukraine will resist they will be in the position to ask for total withdrawal of Russia conceding only Crimea (that is already Russia).
Putin will look like a winner in Russia and a loser for the rest of the world, the other silovki will suggest him to resingn. It will be substituted by someone coming from the army.
