I am constantly trading in and out of my positions
I am constantly trading in and out of my positions
Interestingly you are heading in the right direction in one very small part yet you call Bull**** on me. lol
Cheers John1
Purple Brain
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That was a fun Saturday morning read. Even went to a second slice of toast with Marmite such was my interest.
Bottom line appears to be buy when the price is lower than value; sell when higher than value. What's left is to establish for those with the will to do so is: What is value, what level represents the lowest it's likely to go below or highest above that value. It's all regression to the mean.
Charts help. As would some indicators.
I enjoyed these posts. John1/Sailor1 and the short-lived Harvaster particularly. The former can be forgiven for his subtle winding ups I'm sure.
The thing is, I stand in awe of any man or woman who makes a living; consistent profits, from trading. Whether they do it with charts or without - neither has greater significance or standing. The skill is in the seeking and spotting of opportunities and taking a risk in a way that minimises the impact of the taking the wrong ones while maximising the benefits from the taking of the good ones. As with any business venture.
It is becoming clear to me this skill comes about form experience and knowledge and an ability to survive while gaining that knowledge and the luck in sometimes finding yourself in the company of those that are willing to point you in the right direction.
I’ve yet to make profits from trading. I’m reducing the amount I lose by listening to those that are kind enough to offer advice, solid advice that I can press into service immediately – limited only by my own skills and intelligence and due to no shortcoming on their part. Those that offer less obviously immediately comprehensible advice such as in the majority of this thread, provide substantial food for thought – which is a good thing in its own right.
Bottom line appears to be buy when the price is lower than value; sell when higher than value. What's left is to establish for those with the will to do so is: What is value, what level represents the lowest it's likely to go below or highest above that value. It's all regression to the mean.
Charts help. As would some indicators.
I enjoyed these posts. John1/Sailor1 and the short-lived Harvaster particularly. The former can be forgiven for his subtle winding ups I'm sure.
The thing is, I stand in awe of any man or woman who makes a living; consistent profits, from trading. Whether they do it with charts or without - neither has greater significance or standing. The skill is in the seeking and spotting of opportunities and taking a risk in a way that minimises the impact of the taking the wrong ones while maximising the benefits from the taking of the good ones. As with any business venture.
It is becoming clear to me this skill comes about form experience and knowledge and an ability to survive while gaining that knowledge and the luck in sometimes finding yourself in the company of those that are willing to point you in the right direction.
I’ve yet to make profits from trading. I’m reducing the amount I lose by listening to those that are kind enough to offer advice, solid advice that I can press into service immediately – limited only by my own skills and intelligence and due to no shortcoming on their part. Those that offer less obviously immediately comprehensible advice such as in the majority of this thread, provide substantial food for thought – which is a good thing in its own right.
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DionysusToast
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"heading in the right direction"
Saying nothing whilst at the same time making yourself out to be a guru has been done to death here...
If you have something to say, just go ahead and say it. Or is your knowledge so earth shattering that you risk death at the hands of the illuminati for fully revealing it?
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DionysusToast
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For an intraday trader, there is good reason to focus more on the intraday volume profile than the actual price movement chart.
Partly because of the 'value' issue mentioned by Purple Brain. A market will tend to move to an area and rotate around it 'building value'/accepting prices before moving elsewhere. These areas are places you can get position when that occurs,
Many times per day, there will be a get clustering of positions at a narrow range of prices. A narrow area as where an exceptional amount of trades took place. These can be evident on a price chart but no always so. When you revisit an area like this, there is a tendency to either hold there or to rotate around it and for it to become a wider temporary value ares.
When levels like this break, there tends to be price acceleration as traders realize they are caught offside.
Again, these areas are often visible on a price chart but not always so. Some people use footprint charts and I think that's more valid on thinner markets with lots of intraday swings but for most markets, a straight up volume profile is enough to get a handle on where traders are positioned.
Partly because of the 'value' issue mentioned by Purple Brain. A market will tend to move to an area and rotate around it 'building value'/accepting prices before moving elsewhere. These areas are places you can get position when that occurs,
Many times per day, there will be a get clustering of positions at a narrow range of prices. A narrow area as where an exceptional amount of trades took place. These can be evident on a price chart but no always so. When you revisit an area like this, there is a tendency to either hold there or to rotate around it and for it to become a wider temporary value ares.
When levels like this break, there tends to be price acceleration as traders realize they are caught offside.
Again, these areas are often visible on a price chart but not always so. Some people use footprint charts and I think that's more valid on thinner markets with lots of intraday swings but for most markets, a straight up volume profile is enough to get a handle on where traders are positioned.
"heading in the right direction"
Saying nothing whilst at the same time making yourself out to be a guru has been done to death here...
If you have something to say, just go ahead and say it. Or is your knowledge so earth shattering that you risk death at the hands of the illuminati for fully revealing it?
LOL I can visualize the stamping of the foot and the loudly exclaimed "he's being mean, he won't give me what I want" that accompanied the rolling of the eyes, doesn't reflect much personal growth on your part since the last time we met. Cheers John1
DionysusToast
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LOL I can visualize the stamping of the foot and the loudly exclaimed "he's being mean, he won't give me what I want" that accompanied the rolling of the eyes, doesn't reflect much personal growth on your part since the last time we met. Cheers John1
All style and no substance John. Been done here a million times.
Thank you for the compliment re "All style," very observant of you. Regarding "no substance" the only way you could know that is if you are all knowing, so I ask you "are you all knowing?" A god complex or perhaps just a complex god. Interestingly, after being off the forum for several years there were a number of messages in my inbox from people who had worked out what I was on about, several described the joy of that AH moment and their desire to thank me, it's heartening to see that not everybody is constrained by their ego. Seriously, why are you so threatened by my posts, it's just a discussion on an open forum, so what if I don't run with the herd , we should all be free to accept or reject peoples posts as we see fit without engaging in insults? Cheers John
scholfield
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Is it something to do with options??
I can somewhat symphatize with the skeptics asking for hard facts, because no doubt there are people with empty words. But I can only give my view on John and my feeling towards what he is saying and I feel like what he is saying harbors a intrinsic truth. I am probably still way off what he is actually trying to convey, but already he has broaden my horizon and changed my perspective in how to see some things.
Even if it was all 100% bull, like someone said before me, if only it made you think, it would be worth it. I guess coming from that way, we should all listen more to ´crazy´ people and what they have to say.
Of course this has been said many times by many people, but really limiting your downside, while maximizing your upside is something I haven´t thought enough about in coming up with ´rule-sets´ to trade with. Sometimes people tell you things, and you can understand it on an intellectual level, and you think you are alright, but to REALLY incorporate what people are saying is often a whole other ballpark.
What puzzles me the most at the moment in John comments is how he can create such a skewed risk/reward ratio. Coming from a forex perspective, it would mean that for every pip of a stop-loss you would need to gain 20, 40 or even 50 more pips, taking a reasonably small stop-loss of 15 pips the amount of potential gains would be dramatic and nigh unrealistic. So clearly I am looking at this from a very wrong and simple perspective. Now John already said that only using stop-losses would be foolhearted, but what other risk managing methods can be used besides cutting your losses by either closing them or hedging them?
Parrondo´s paradox also somewhat reminded me of a system described in the book ¨reminiscence of a stock operator¨. The system would work something like this: For every uptick you would add a contract to your position and move your stop-loss to 1 tick below the price. This system will most likely only work in a low-volatility, trending market, but the principle employed seems loosely connected to the mentioned paradox. As you would leave the potential for profits open, but the stop-loss would act as one side of a ratchet, preventing your capital from going down to much.
I hope John will stick around and not get discouraged by some of the negative sentiment, as I am sure that there are more people like me out there who do feel positive towards what he is saying.
Even if it was all 100% bull, like someone said before me, if only it made you think, it would be worth it. I guess coming from that way, we should all listen more to ´crazy´ people and what they have to say.
Of course this has been said many times by many people, but really limiting your downside, while maximizing your upside is something I haven´t thought enough about in coming up with ´rule-sets´ to trade with. Sometimes people tell you things, and you can understand it on an intellectual level, and you think you are alright, but to REALLY incorporate what people are saying is often a whole other ballpark.
What puzzles me the most at the moment in John comments is how he can create such a skewed risk/reward ratio. Coming from a forex perspective, it would mean that for every pip of a stop-loss you would need to gain 20, 40 or even 50 more pips, taking a reasonably small stop-loss of 15 pips the amount of potential gains would be dramatic and nigh unrealistic. So clearly I am looking at this from a very wrong and simple perspective. Now John already said that only using stop-losses would be foolhearted, but what other risk managing methods can be used besides cutting your losses by either closing them or hedging them?
Parrondo´s paradox also somewhat reminded me of a system described in the book ¨reminiscence of a stock operator¨. The system would work something like this: For every uptick you would add a contract to your position and move your stop-loss to 1 tick below the price. This system will most likely only work in a low-volatility, trending market, but the principle employed seems loosely connected to the mentioned paradox. As you would leave the potential for profits open, but the stop-loss would act as one side of a ratchet, preventing your capital from going down to much.
I hope John will stick around and not get discouraged by some of the negative sentiment, as I am sure that there are more people like me out there who do feel positive towards what he is saying.
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Purple Brain
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Parrondo's Paradox requires alternate utilisation of two losing systems which inform each other - each acting as a ratchet for the other. Don't quite see how your proposed method is in any way related.
Good luck with your newly renamed forum, but I think this is a very cheeky way to attempt to solicit members.
DionysusToast
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I know you are looking for the secret sauce and you think some posters here have some but they don't because there isn't any.
There aren't any secrets, hell - if you want to learn how to trade without a chart - Go here: http://www.youtube.com/user/GuyBower/videos - it's hardly a secret. That's just one guy, one prop shop, one set of methods.
There is an issue in this industry and based on a conversation I had last week, it's starting to hit the brokerages a little. Seems like a growing number of people have accounts but aren't trading.
How could this be so? What could be behind this trend? Well, perhaps it's certain companies partnering with 1,000 people all telling you they have the secret sauce, all with 'magic beans' and all telling you something different. When a novice trader gets 3 emails a week, each with a list of 10 webinars on how to trade and EVERY webinar is saying something different, well - hardly a shock that people get confused and stop live trading.
You say this: " So clearly I am looking at this from a very wrong and simple perspective"
Trading is simple, don't let people run you around on wild goose chases with all this "1 tick stop, 50 tick target" nonsense. That whole angle is aimed at retail traders whose accounts are so small, that to live their dream of retiring on a $5k account, they set large targets that guarantee their own failure. It's a well used carrot for novice traders. Don't bite!
I had lunch today with a friend that started his trading career as a runner for Peter Steidlmayer a long, long time ago and to this day he still trades. We discussed this very issue, the nonsense factor in trading that is doing nothing but confusing novices. Most people do it to extort money from traders but a few times a year someone pops up on T2W and does it for their own entertainment.
We had a long chat today about trading (cause let's face it, not many people want to discuss it). You could sum up how this guy trades in 5 minutes. It's not complicated. There was no obfuscation, no secrets, no requests not to pass information on. Trading is a skill and if you treat it like a problem with a solution, you'll keep on seeking that solution for an infinite amount of time.
In short - don't believe the BS.
I read the definition, what reminded me of the paradox is (and I fully admit I don´t know the logic behind the paradox yet) that somehow gains are preserved and prevented from slipping back. As is described in the method, you can go 3 ticks up, or really any number of ticks, but only 1 tick down. That´s the aspect I was refering too.
Also, I understand this site does not welcome advertisement for other forums, but that link was given with the best intentions. I have no interest in the site other then I enjoy the information it provides and the people who are around there. For me it is one of the most valuable sites I have found so far, I don´t see it as cheeky advertisement, but that is up to you.
I certainly think you are right DionysusToast, trading is a skill you will have to develop over time. And all the BS information and systems out there don´t help new traders to cut to the chase of things. But it also implies that while there may not be a holy grail, some information certainly provides more insight and thus is more valuable then other information.
I don´t think John ever meant to promote 1 tick stops with 50 tick targets, that´s why I belief I must be missing some key aspect here.
I have read more often that profitable people really have simple systems or rather ideas they trade and the longer they go at it the simpler they make it.
But being just a novice, it seems that some of the more ´advanced´ teachings promote a clear trading plan with precise rules of what to do and when to do it.
Is this a wrong perspective to take? Should a trader most of all allow his instincts (with most of the emotional baggage filtered out) to make his trading decisions for him? And should your plan only consist of an idea of what you are trying to do in the market and allow your intuition to judge the parameters and variables?
Would you mind saying how your friend trades? Or yourself for that matter? Do you have specified entry and exit points. Criteria that need to be met before you can enter the market? Are you bound by certain non-market state rules?
I would very much like to know how to go forward and where to look to develop skills in trading.
Hi,
Out of curiosity I googled up Dionysus, found him on Buzzle, thank you I nearly fell off the chair I was laughing so hard. The greek god of wine and festivities, he was also the patron diety of agriculture and theatre, but this is the bit I like:clap: "inspirer of ritual madness and ecstacy" :clap
resumably not the kind that people ingest although one does wonder after being on here. lol Have a good day you've certainly made mine. Cheers John P.S. So seriously which one of us is taking the p*ss?
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Shakone
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Hi,
Out of curiosity I googled up Dionysus, found him on Buzzle, thank you I nearly fell off the chair I was laughing so hard. The greek god of wine and festivities, he was also the patron diety of agriculture and theatre, but this is the bit I like:clap: "inspirer of ritual madness and ecstacy" :clap
P.S. So seriously which one of us is taking the p*ss?
Did you really need to google Dionysus?
Hard to tell whether you're taking the p*ss, as you haven't really said anything. Although you do seem to be taking the p*ss out of his username.
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DionysusToast
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Apparently - he thought it was a brand of vacuum cleaners....
Shakone
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Do you apply lessons learned in the wild to your trading?
Not only a god complex but able to read minds as well, very impressive, but a brand of toaster sounds more logical considering your name, perhaps that is the area where we differ the most. lol
By the way, someone asked you to share your friends trading strategy, don't be shy it's no good winging about me if you don't deliver, after all you did say he would be happy for people to see it and all explained in 5 minutes, that's a lot more than I ever offered. lol Cheers John1
