Moneylender
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Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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spx
bears
bears
Dentalfloss
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spx
every rally is a fake from that chart
rallies are gettin sold quickly
uneless supp comes in its...plop
every rally is a fake from that chart
rallies are gettin sold quickly
uneless supp comes in its...plop
Dentalfloss
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2372 is trend rez area
supp can be anywhere
2330 pivot area ..up to 2342
supp can be anywhere
2330 pivot area ..up to 2342
Last edited:
Dentalfloss
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- Digesting FOMC minutes, latest Trump policy moves and staff changes,
German Factory Orders and Draghi speech; awaiting Trump-Xi meeting,
Jobless Claims, ECB March minutes and French & Spanish auctions
- ECB minutes/Draghi speech: divisions on policy outlook all too clear,
Draghi speech suggests markets not mistaken in interpreting as less
accommodative outlook, even if no shift short-term
- FOMC minutes: balance sheet reduction timeline earlier than markets
expected, balance of risks on outlook clearly skewed to upside
- Trump: sequential setbacks and defeats on policy initiatives heightens
risk of precipitous 'for the win' move
- Table: Fed rate expectations by meeting
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Today will mostly be about the much anticipated and likely 'tense' meeting between the US and Chinese presidents, though the aftermath of the FOMC minutes along with German Factory Orders (largely as expected at 3,4% m/m after an upwardly revised slide of 6.8% in January), the 'account' of the ECB's March policy meeting and US weekly jobless claims will attempt to vie for markets' attention, as well as speeches from Draghi and SF Fed's Williams at the ECB conference. France and Spain top the day's run of govt bond sales. In respect of the ECB minutes, the level of more manifest dissent in recent meetings, which has previously typically glossed over, has been clear, and it will be interesting to see how the minutes spin what was a clear change of language in respect of policy and economic outlook risks, given many of the more dovish members have been trying to play down the significance in recent weeks, though the hawks are clearly in mood to back down on the need to discuss further tapering, if Weidmann's comments yesterday are anything to go by. Draghi's speech this morning (http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2017/html/sp170406.en.html) however makes it clear that the less accommodative signal from the March meeting was real. He concludes with "a reassessment of the current monetary policy stance is not warranted at this stage" but then adds "Before making any alterations to the components of our stance – interest rates, asset purchases and forward guidance – we still need to build sufficient confidence that inflation will indeed converge to our aim over a medium-term horizon, and will remain there even in less supportive monetary policy conditions." This makes it clear that the risks on the policy outlook are very clearly that they gradually move to a less accommodative stance.
** U.S.A. - March FOMC minutes **
- Financial markets' asymmetric view on central bank policies continues to be very noticeable, with many commentators spinning these minutes as 'dovish'. This despite the fact that they clearly state: "Most of the participants...anticipated that a change in that (reinvestment) policy would be appropriate before the end of this year". Markets had only been discounting this to start in 2018. As was also clear in the statement and Yellen's press conference, the FOMC sees as many, if not more upside risks to the economic outlook than downside risks, the latter in principle being limited to an overseas shock or an equity market meltdown and/or an accompanying tightening of financial market conditions, which will always be included as a matter of due diligence. This being the case, the balance of risks in terms of the policy trajectory are that there may be 3 rather than two further rate hikes, or if the USD strengthens considerably, they will drop or at the very least wind back reinvestment of existing Treasury and MBS holdings. The fact that 'some' members also suggested that the US equity market was looking rather overvalued should underscore the point that these minutes were not dovish. Be that as it may, markets naturally continue to be fixated on news flow related to the prospects for tax reform, infrastructure and of course Health Care reform, but will also need to be wary that after a run of defeats and setbacks to nearly all his policy initiatives that Trump's 'for the win' mentality could prompt a precipitous executive decision, wiht potentially very damaging consequences - eminently what would likely be a disastrous military engagement with North Korea is towards of that particular risk area.
from Marc Ostwald
German Factory Orders and Draghi speech; awaiting Trump-Xi meeting,
Jobless Claims, ECB March minutes and French & Spanish auctions
- ECB minutes/Draghi speech: divisions on policy outlook all too clear,
Draghi speech suggests markets not mistaken in interpreting as less
accommodative outlook, even if no shift short-term
- FOMC minutes: balance sheet reduction timeline earlier than markets
expected, balance of risks on outlook clearly skewed to upside
- Trump: sequential setbacks and defeats on policy initiatives heightens
risk of precipitous 'for the win' move
- Table: Fed rate expectations by meeting
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Today will mostly be about the much anticipated and likely 'tense' meeting between the US and Chinese presidents, though the aftermath of the FOMC minutes along with German Factory Orders (largely as expected at 3,4% m/m after an upwardly revised slide of 6.8% in January), the 'account' of the ECB's March policy meeting and US weekly jobless claims will attempt to vie for markets' attention, as well as speeches from Draghi and SF Fed's Williams at the ECB conference. France and Spain top the day's run of govt bond sales. In respect of the ECB minutes, the level of more manifest dissent in recent meetings, which has previously typically glossed over, has been clear, and it will be interesting to see how the minutes spin what was a clear change of language in respect of policy and economic outlook risks, given many of the more dovish members have been trying to play down the significance in recent weeks, though the hawks are clearly in mood to back down on the need to discuss further tapering, if Weidmann's comments yesterday are anything to go by. Draghi's speech this morning (http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2017/html/sp170406.en.html) however makes it clear that the less accommodative signal from the March meeting was real. He concludes with "a reassessment of the current monetary policy stance is not warranted at this stage" but then adds "Before making any alterations to the components of our stance – interest rates, asset purchases and forward guidance – we still need to build sufficient confidence that inflation will indeed converge to our aim over a medium-term horizon, and will remain there even in less supportive monetary policy conditions." This makes it clear that the risks on the policy outlook are very clearly that they gradually move to a less accommodative stance.
** U.S.A. - March FOMC minutes **
- Financial markets' asymmetric view on central bank policies continues to be very noticeable, with many commentators spinning these minutes as 'dovish'. This despite the fact that they clearly state: "Most of the participants...anticipated that a change in that (reinvestment) policy would be appropriate before the end of this year". Markets had only been discounting this to start in 2018. As was also clear in the statement and Yellen's press conference, the FOMC sees as many, if not more upside risks to the economic outlook than downside risks, the latter in principle being limited to an overseas shock or an equity market meltdown and/or an accompanying tightening of financial market conditions, which will always be included as a matter of due diligence. This being the case, the balance of risks in terms of the policy trajectory are that there may be 3 rather than two further rate hikes, or if the USD strengthens considerably, they will drop or at the very least wind back reinvestment of existing Treasury and MBS holdings. The fact that 'some' members also suggested that the US equity market was looking rather overvalued should underscore the point that these minutes were not dovish. Be that as it may, markets naturally continue to be fixated on news flow related to the prospects for tax reform, infrastructure and of course Health Care reform, but will also need to be wary that after a run of defeats and setbacks to nearly all his policy initiatives that Trump's 'for the win' mentality could prompt a precipitous executive decision, wiht potentially very damaging consequences - eminently what would likely be a disastrous military engagement with North Korea is towards of that particular risk area.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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thinking we might move up before US open...small gap /up
dumps at the open to test 20600
lets see
dumps at the open to test 20600
lets see
Dentalfloss
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a massive one yesterday for all on the thread
we had marked 20.9K the day before
broke 20.7K before the open...we were on that
the high was 20885..near enough to our 20.9K...we also had 20880 marked
then dumped to 20.6K
luvin it
we had marked 20.9K the day before
broke 20.7K before the open...we were on that
the high was 20885..near enough to our 20.9K...we also had 20880 marked
then dumped to 20.6K
luvin it
foroom lluzers
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When Wall street sneezes , the rest of the world catches a cold.You need to look at U S indexes levels S and P , Nasdaq and Dow and their levels .
If trading DAX ,look at S and P , multiply S and P by 10 approximately , 1 whole point movement on S and P look for equivalent on dax by 10 multiplier .
Example :3 point movement on S and P = 30 on dax
11900 is support , but to see reliable supports /resistances see daily 4 hour candles bottoms tops , tops of upper channels are resistances , bottoms of trendlines are supports .1.2100 was resistance and now it is being tested as support
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foroom lluzers
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foroom lluzers
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Here money lender
Just a hint:Timing the market is difficult , it becomes day trading and 99 % lose at day trading .Eventually this timing will lose you a lot of money , it is like going to a roulette wheel and predicting the next landing , when market becomes extremely volatile, mixed and un predicatable..I just buy and hold for the swing with options as protection.
I am long 2130 with 2050 puts as protection and written 2150 weekly calls *2
Just a hint:Timing the market is difficult , it becomes day trading and 99 % lose at day trading .Eventually this timing will lose you a lot of money , it is like going to a roulette wheel and predicting the next landing , when market becomes extremely volatile, mixed and un predicatable..I just buy and hold for the swing with options as protection.
I am long 2130 with 2050 puts as protection and written 2150 weekly calls *2
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Moneylender
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Sun is shinning here and the Tandem is calling, out for a few miles in this lovely weather.
Dentalfloss
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20649 the close...on our way
Dentalfloss
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20630 pump or dump
Dentalfloss
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12170 dax..pump or dump
7300 on ftse
7300 on ftse
foroom lluzers
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buy , sell or
whistling1.2200 is previous supp , may now become support ?
1.2170 is consolidation res
Shall I buy sell or
?foroom lluzers
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My view is buy above 1.2200 with a full 30 min bar close above or 1 .2130 with a 30 min bar close aboveforoom lluzers
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so there is gap ?Where?
Between cash , carry and futures?
The difference between cash and futures is the carry cost or future dividend distributions?
