Trading with point and figure

Moneylender said:
Sell the spikes or buy the dips???
Click to expand...

15q6zvq.gif
 
- Digesting solid Singapore exports, awaiting EU/Italy Trade, US Industrial
Production & Michigan Sentiment; focus on G20, Merkel/Trump and Equity
futures and Options expiries

- US Industrial Production: mild weather to restrain utilities output
again, but resources and manufacturing seen posting solid gains

- Relief at Fed, Dutch elections proves short-lived, though Forbes dissent,
Nowotny policy comments actually surprise free

- Charts/Tables: Euribor strip, ECB rate expectations by meeting, WTI Oil

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

A relatively quiet day in terms of scheduled data and events to end a week in which the anticipated 'event risk' has proven to be little more than a damp squib, notwithstanding the 'shock' of Forbes' dissent at yesterday's BoE MPC meeting. In truth that dissent should have been deployed at the Q1 Inflation Report meeting, and was in any case hardly a surprise given her prior comments and voting record; that there are "others" who are/were increasingly uncomfortable with the inflation outlook is somewhat moot. There have been numerous occasions where potential 'dissenters' have not followed words with action, as has been the case over recent years on the FOMC, and Forbes is leaving the MPC in June. Statistically a very modest schedule has the much better than expected Singapore Exports data to digest ahead of Italian and Eurozone Trade data, the former underlining the point that the large surplus in Eurozone is definitely not all about Germany, while the US has Industrial Production and provisional Michigan Sentiment. Otherwise the highlights will be quarterly expiries in equity markets, and the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central bankers' meeting which starts in Baden Baden today, and Merkel's first face to face meeting with President Trump in the USA. In respect of the G20 meeting, there are expectations that the long standing commitment to rejecting protectionism may be dropped from the communique for the first time in more than 10 years, and the wording on currency manipulation and competitive devaluations will also be closely watched. It is also worth noting that markets remain hypersensitive to ECB taper/rate hike comments given the reaction of the Euribor curve and Eurozone debt markets to Nowotny's comment "ECB to decide later whether to raise rates or end QE first", which was hardly a fresh insight into the policy outlook, but serves to take some of the air out of the 'relief' rally in risk assets at the Dutch election and the oxymoronic 'dovish Fed hike'.


** U.S.A. - Feb Industrial Production **
- The consensus sees headline Production rising by just 0.2% m/m, thus not quite reversing January's 0.3% m/m, though this paints a slightly deceptive picture. That is in so far as a mild winter has unsurprisingly seen weakness in utilities output, and this will likely restrain the headline gain this month, though there should be a considerable offset from the resource sector, above all given the rising rig count (Baker Hughes data as ever due late this PM. By contrast Manufacturing Output is expected to post another solid 0.4% m/m rise, marking a sixth consecutive monthly gain, and per se echoing a solid gain in manufacturing payrolls as well as the solid run of manufacturing surveys. March preliminary Michigan Sentiment is projected to see a marginal setback to 97.0 from February's 97.3, even though a slip in gasoline prices, solid labour demand and buoyant stock market would tend to suggest a modest gain; there will alo be some interest in the inflation expectation measures, with the 1-yr measure posting a 7-month high of 2.7% in February and likely to have risen further in March.
from Marc Ostwald
 
G'day folks,

Markets a bit subdued after yesterdays fillip.... keeping an eye on cable for move to 1.24...possible scalps S from there (1.242 ideally).

Ftse sp 7410 rez 7440...could well test rez area again, sp seems quite solid

WTI - stuck around 4880....not sure where it wants to go....needs some "announcements" to get it to move... staying away for now
 
chart was oil
downtrend started on 23rd feb...stocks did not react till 1st March
only about to test internal trend
watch that 48.00 supp area..if that fails ....stocks go with it
50.00 and 51.00 is where the real test is
 
oil...we are still in the rubbish area
the real cChonas are in 48.00 supp area
50.00 and 51.00 rez areas
just messing
 
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