Dentalfloss
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cable
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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that is aqua horizontal on the chart/prevrez
Dentalfloss
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ftse should be in rez
7450..ish
7450..ish
Dentalfloss
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break above 7400 is unsupported
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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- Central banks top the agenda as markets digest Fed, BoJ and PBOC and
await SNB, BOE, Norges Bank and Turkey's TCMB; Oz labour data to digest
ahead of Eurozone final CPI, US Housing Starts, Claims and Philly Fed;
France and Spain top govt bond auction run
- Fed: so-called 'dovish' hike avoids upsetting the apple cart, but sets
improbable rate trajectory; Fed claim to symmetric view on CPI risks
likely to prove more rhetorical than factual
- BoE: no changes expected, to retain balanced view on rate outlook risks,
weak Average Weekly Earnings likely to reinforce neutral short-term
stance
- Turkey TCMB: political backdrop leaves TCMB operating with one arm tied
behind its back and a gun to its head, policy choices unenviable
- Attachments: Fed rate projections, Fed rate probabilities by meeting,
Japan net Foreign Bond purchases
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Central banks will continue to rule the roost today, as markets digest the messages from the Fed and Bank of Japan meetings, and await the SNB, Norges Bank BoE, Bank Indonesia, Turkey TCMB and Banco Central de Chile meetings. After the anticipatory 'Sturm und Drang' about the Dutch election, the chatter about the outcome will quickly fade, but is unlikely dissipate concerns about the rather more significant French election. A new Dutch govt will take a considerable period to form with the VVD, CDA and D66 falling just short of the 76 seats needed for a majority, leaving the resurgent Green list as potential kingmakers for a new govt, following the as expected rout of Finance Minister's Djisselbloem's Labour party. On the political front, there will also be some interest in whether there is less of a gaping chasm in opinion terms between Schaeuble and Mnuchin when they meet today in Berlin, than between Trump and Merkel who hold an initial face to face meeting, which was postponed due to the blizzard earlier in the week, tomorrow. A lighter day in statistical terms has the Australian labour data to digest ahead of final Eurozone CPI and US Housing Starts, Jobless Claims, Philly fed manufacturing and JOLTS Job Openings. Meanwhile Spain and France offer a total of up to EUR 14.0 Bln of govt bonds, which will be an interesting test of demand following a solid outperformance from France, Italy and Spain yesterday.
The Fed in essence offered no surprises, indeed markets took comfort from the lack of any substantive changes to the central projections for rates and the economy, even if the ostensible plan (it is not a plan, but where the FOMC consensus lies at the current point) to hike rates 25 bps 3x a year for the next three years looks to be the stuff of planned economies' 5-yr plans. Be that as it may, there is an implicit subtle shift from data dependency to data and fiscal policy dependency, as well as a rather more symmetric stance on inflation risks. Overall it has allowed markets to adopt a goldilocks type view of the risks from Fed policy, for the time being, however with 10-yr Treasury yields down at 2.49% and headline CPI at 2.7% y/y, there really is only very limited scope for interest rate markets to rally, without a clear sign that headline inflation eases materially from here. China's PBOC overnight policy tweaks raising various term rates by 10 bps look to be primarily aimed at continuing to lean against excessive lending above all for leveraged market positions and property speculation, and are as the PBOC suggested best not interpreted. The BoJ offered no surprises in keeping all its rate and QQE targets unchanged, and the more interesting item from Japan was another week's flow data which as the attached chart highlights that Japanese investors continue to divest their holdings, in no small party probably due to very unattractive real yields, above all relative to long dated real yields on JGBs. But overall, the very neutral and rather dull policy outlook indicated by these various central banks leaves markets once again staring into a void, still needing to "reach" for returns, while wary of overstretched valuations in most asset classes, but with short-term rates still super low or negative, faced with little choice but to chase the dragon of reaching for yield, as well as a Pavlovian penchant for relative value rotation trades.
Of the remaining central bank meetings, the SNB will doubtless continue to stress that it will keep current policy rates for a very extended period, and again furiously protest CHF strength, stressing that it has unlimited potential to intervene in FX markets. The Bank of England will continue to stress that the next policy move could be in either direction, and that it can and will look through the current pick-up in inflation, which it sees as transient; it will be some time before it concedes any ground that it may have misjudged the economic outlook, and it will certainly feel vindicated by the soft Average Weekly Earnings data yesterday, even if that is cold comfort for a general public once again facing a contraction in real wages. Perhaps the more interesting development in the UK was yesterday's u-turn on raising self-employed NIC contributions, which highlights that while Mrs May may be rising high in opinion polls, her backbenchers and indeed some members of her Cabinet are as restive as the group the former PM Major identified as '*******s'. Last but not least the unenviable policy options for Turkey's TCMB remain all too clear, with the consensus looking for a 75 bps hike in the Late Liquidity Lending Rate to 11.75%, as it seeks to bolster the TRY and discourage FX outflows, while it is expected to leaves other policy rates unchanged. As previously observed, the TRY's woes remain political, and the TCMB continues to be a central bank whose operating parameters are constrained by having one hand tied by its back with a gun pointed at its head by Erdogan and his minions. There is certainly little doubt that with CPI running at 10.13% y/y, its current policy settings are not appropriate.
from Marc Ostwald
await SNB, BOE, Norges Bank and Turkey's TCMB; Oz labour data to digest
ahead of Eurozone final CPI, US Housing Starts, Claims and Philly Fed;
France and Spain top govt bond auction run
- Fed: so-called 'dovish' hike avoids upsetting the apple cart, but sets
improbable rate trajectory; Fed claim to symmetric view on CPI risks
likely to prove more rhetorical than factual
- BoE: no changes expected, to retain balanced view on rate outlook risks,
weak Average Weekly Earnings likely to reinforce neutral short-term
stance
- Turkey TCMB: political backdrop leaves TCMB operating with one arm tied
behind its back and a gun to its head, policy choices unenviable
- Attachments: Fed rate projections, Fed rate probabilities by meeting,
Japan net Foreign Bond purchases
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Central banks will continue to rule the roost today, as markets digest the messages from the Fed and Bank of Japan meetings, and await the SNB, Norges Bank BoE, Bank Indonesia, Turkey TCMB and Banco Central de Chile meetings. After the anticipatory 'Sturm und Drang' about the Dutch election, the chatter about the outcome will quickly fade, but is unlikely dissipate concerns about the rather more significant French election. A new Dutch govt will take a considerable period to form with the VVD, CDA and D66 falling just short of the 76 seats needed for a majority, leaving the resurgent Green list as potential kingmakers for a new govt, following the as expected rout of Finance Minister's Djisselbloem's Labour party. On the political front, there will also be some interest in whether there is less of a gaping chasm in opinion terms between Schaeuble and Mnuchin when they meet today in Berlin, than between Trump and Merkel who hold an initial face to face meeting, which was postponed due to the blizzard earlier in the week, tomorrow. A lighter day in statistical terms has the Australian labour data to digest ahead of final Eurozone CPI and US Housing Starts, Jobless Claims, Philly fed manufacturing and JOLTS Job Openings. Meanwhile Spain and France offer a total of up to EUR 14.0 Bln of govt bonds, which will be an interesting test of demand following a solid outperformance from France, Italy and Spain yesterday.
The Fed in essence offered no surprises, indeed markets took comfort from the lack of any substantive changes to the central projections for rates and the economy, even if the ostensible plan (it is not a plan, but where the FOMC consensus lies at the current point) to hike rates 25 bps 3x a year for the next three years looks to be the stuff of planned economies' 5-yr plans. Be that as it may, there is an implicit subtle shift from data dependency to data and fiscal policy dependency, as well as a rather more symmetric stance on inflation risks. Overall it has allowed markets to adopt a goldilocks type view of the risks from Fed policy, for the time being, however with 10-yr Treasury yields down at 2.49% and headline CPI at 2.7% y/y, there really is only very limited scope for interest rate markets to rally, without a clear sign that headline inflation eases materially from here. China's PBOC overnight policy tweaks raising various term rates by 10 bps look to be primarily aimed at continuing to lean against excessive lending above all for leveraged market positions and property speculation, and are as the PBOC suggested best not interpreted. The BoJ offered no surprises in keeping all its rate and QQE targets unchanged, and the more interesting item from Japan was another week's flow data which as the attached chart highlights that Japanese investors continue to divest their holdings, in no small party probably due to very unattractive real yields, above all relative to long dated real yields on JGBs. But overall, the very neutral and rather dull policy outlook indicated by these various central banks leaves markets once again staring into a void, still needing to "reach" for returns, while wary of overstretched valuations in most asset classes, but with short-term rates still super low or negative, faced with little choice but to chase the dragon of reaching for yield, as well as a Pavlovian penchant for relative value rotation trades.
Of the remaining central bank meetings, the SNB will doubtless continue to stress that it will keep current policy rates for a very extended period, and again furiously protest CHF strength, stressing that it has unlimited potential to intervene in FX markets. The Bank of England will continue to stress that the next policy move could be in either direction, and that it can and will look through the current pick-up in inflation, which it sees as transient; it will be some time before it concedes any ground that it may have misjudged the economic outlook, and it will certainly feel vindicated by the soft Average Weekly Earnings data yesterday, even if that is cold comfort for a general public once again facing a contraction in real wages. Perhaps the more interesting development in the UK was yesterday's u-turn on raising self-employed NIC contributions, which highlights that while Mrs May may be rising high in opinion polls, her backbenchers and indeed some members of her Cabinet are as restive as the group the former PM Major identified as '*******s'. Last but not least the unenviable policy options for Turkey's TCMB remain all too clear, with the consensus looking for a 75 bps hike in the Late Liquidity Lending Rate to 11.75%, as it seeks to bolster the TRY and discourage FX outflows, while it is expected to leaves other policy rates unchanged. As previously observed, the TRY's woes remain political, and the TCMB continues to be a central bank whose operating parameters are constrained by having one hand tied by its back with a gun pointed at its head by Erdogan and his minions. There is certainly little doubt that with CPI running at 10.13% y/y, its current policy settings are not appropriate.
from Marc Ostwald
Took it..:smart:
Flat now...entering sp zone 7400 - 10 see how its handled.
That's dentist pivot...:smart:
Picked up a few on pullback...looking fairly strong, could test 1.242, so out for now.
Atilla
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BoE minutes got market bullish on cable. If supp holds at 1.2350 I think it'll continue up now until something comes out to the contrary.
Switching camps
Dentalfloss
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dow over the last 2 days
raw chart
raw chart
Dentalfloss
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wham....luvin it
Dentalfloss
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our 49.50 pivot area whacked em...back into 48.80 for a rethinkoil
Dentalfloss
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gotcha
Dentalfloss
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eurusd back into mega rez..lets see how it handles it
Dentalfloss
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20964....and bounce
excellent
excellent
