Trading with point and figure

[Moneylender]

20766 is prev supp on 1 min candle

It seems to be a bit headless atm, not sure if it will dump or pump

 

[Dentalfloss]

20728 seems a big number

 

[Dentalfloss]

any bounce needs to stay under 20760 for bears

 

[Dentalfloss]

difficult...lol

 

[Dentalfloss]

i changed the inputs
it looks like a feeble break above aqua....a fake
but...
anything goes in this market

 

[Dentalfloss]

20766 is prev supp on 1 min candle

wham
excellent
worked as rez
for a few

 

[Moneylender]

the range is getting tighter and tighter

 

[Dentalfloss]

any bounce needs to stay under 20760 for bears

scalp from that

 

[Dentalfloss]

5 min cxandle now showing a new downtrend...that could get bought..lol

 

[Dentalfloss]

if 20730 breaks ...bears happy if 20750 is rez on bounce

 

[dashdbn]

What's the plans today guys

 

[Dentalfloss]

What's the plans today guys

dunno yet
still lookin at the tea leaves

 

[Dentalfloss]

horizontal rez 12K and 12030 areas
horizontal supp at 11965 area

 

[Dentalfloss]

dow...no real sign of any bears

 

[Dentalfloss]

dax into the open

 

[Dentalfloss]

pivot area 11950-11965
then 11900 prev breakout /aqua horizontal

 

[Dentalfloss]

bears happy if 12K and then 11965 becomes rez on a bounce
bulls happy if 11950 and 11900 holds on pullback

 

[Dentalfloss]

ftse
bounce from our 7270 supp area
excellent

 

[Dentalfloss]

- French election fears still in the driving seat; digesting FOMC minutes,
weak Australian CapEx, German GDP details; awaiting CBI Trades surveys,
US Claims, FHFA House Prices & KC Fed Manufacturing, UK by-elections;
Italy, UK and US to auction govt debt

- French election fear market distortions both extreme and inconsistent

- German Q4 GDP: hefty deduction from External Demand emphasizes nonsense
of 'unfair' advantage from 'weak Euro' narrative

- Charts: US & Japan 10/30 yr spreads, JPM EMBI spread, German 2 yr yield,
Itraxx 5yr Crossover

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

It is increasingly debatable, above all in bond/credit market terms, whether there is another story in financial markets-ville other than the French elections and thereto related market fears. Be that as it may, the day's schedule has the overnight FOMC minutes, an as expected no change from the Bank of Korea and the soft Australian Q4 CapEx and detailed German Q4 GDP data to ponder, ahead of French Business Confidence and the UK CBI Distributive Trades surveys, while the US sees weekly jobless claims. FHFA House Prices and the KC Fed Manufacturing survey - none of which look like genuine market movers. Govt bond supply sees Italy sell Zeros & Inflation-linked BTPs, the UK re-open its current 10-yr benchmark, and the US concludes its refunding with a new 7-yr. For all that the fear surrounding the French elections is understandable, particularly after the Brexit and Trump votes, there is a simple rather rhetorical question that increasingly needs to be asked. It is perhaps oversimplified, but very well exemplified by the macro disconnect of German 2-yr yields ploughing ever lower levels(<-0.90%), with inflation having risen to 1.8% y/y. It is: in which universe did it ever make sense to pile on ever higher capital, above all collateral requirements in the banking sector for all forms of trading activity, and at the same time see central banks drain markets of the very same collateral, in the name of unconventional (as yet non proven) monetary policy. Is this not a Homer Simpson 'doh' moment? Be that as it may, the distortions and disconnects are becoming all too obvious, with a steeper JGB 10/30 yr curve than US Treasuries, with real 30-yr JGB yields at 0.6% (0.9% nominal) while real US 30yr Treasury yields stand at 0.5% (3.1% nominal), offering few incentives for Japanese to invest in long-dated Treasuries. In all of this credit markets continue to show an impressive sensitivity, best exemplified by a) the JPM Emerging Market Bond Index spread seeing ever tighter levels, and b) while in Europe the Itraxx Crossover index has barely flinched in response to the ever widening France/German spreads. Outside of watching the French elections and the random pronouncements and edicts of Trump, today also sees two UK parliamentary by-elections, which should offer some insights into how far the opposition Labour party has sunk in areas, which had been long established strongholds.

The FOMC minutes unsurprisingly did not offer a clear signal on how willing the FOMC majority is to raise rates again, outside of keeping that option on the table ("Many participants expressed the view that it might be appropriate to raise the federal funds rate again fairly soon if incoming information on the labour market and inflation was in line with or stronger than their current expectations). However it does imply that next week's February labour data will be seen in markets as the 'make or break' statistics for the March meeting. In terms of the German Q4 GDP details, the deduction (obviously due to the 'unfair' advantage of a 'weak' EUR) from external demand rose from -0.1 ppts in Q3 to -0.5 ppt, thankfully offset by strong domestic demand which rose 0.9% q/q - or in SAAR terms 3.6%.

from Marc Ostwald

 

[Dentalfloss]

dow
it aint happening for the bears