Trading with point and figure

DOW
48 hours of data
s29rx3.gif
 
that pivot area we marked needs to go first
bears will like it ..if it is rez on bounce
could go higher

forgot to add...that internal trendline/aqua is important...needs to be rez for bears
 
Morning all,

ftse sp 6800 rez 6830. Could go sp 6770 rez 6800.

Could just bump about in narrow range... need reasons to go long or short. This is ideal bull and bear trap conditions with fakes either way imho... so either scalps or wide stops.

Been clipping my ticket on ftse swing trade short and tightened stops to profit.
 
- US Bond markets closed for Veterans' day; Fed speak from Fischer and
Williams, modest data schedule has UK Construction Output, India
Industrial Production and US Michigan Sentiment

- Michigan Sentiment: data collection timing could be critical, final
reading likely to see hefty revision

- Markets: EM and HY bonds wake up to govt bond rout, S&P500 not yet
'got the memo'; JPY the pressure relief valve for 'locked' JGB yields;
Dr Copper goes parabolic, but all 'paper', underlying activity subdued

- Charts: lots of them!

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
With the US bond market closed for Veterans' Day, with a wave of selling in bonds and credit noted going into the long weekend, perhaps markets elsewhere may quieten down after the roller coaster of recent days, with a modest schedule of statistics accompanied by some Fed speak from vice chair Fischer and SF Fed's Williams. Outside of the overnight Malaysian Q3 GDP, there are the ever erratic UK Construction Output, Indian Industrial Production and the provisional US Michigan Sentiment to digest, none of which look like market movers. Meanwhile a fat concession has been carved out for today's maximum EUR7.75 Bln total of Italian BTP sales spread across maturities. In passing and casting a different light on the latest wave of bond market selling, as part its Corporate Bond QE, the BOE bought £330 Mln of bonds this week, the total since they started on Sept 27 is now £2.69 Bln in a programme that is meant to reach a final total of £10 Bln over 18 months.. so they have done 27% of total in six weeks of an 18-mth programme - there would appear to be a lot of willing sellers, to put not too fine a point on it, and that is certainly testament to appalling secondary market trading conditions. In term of today's data, UK Construction Output is expected to remain sluggish with a flat m/m reading following August's -1.5% m/m (as ever subject to often quite sizable revisions), while US Michigan Sentiment is seen staging a dead cat bounce to 87.9 after falling from 91.2 in September to 87.2 in October, much will however depend on when responses were collected, and the final reading may diverge quite heavily.

As for markets, first of all the credit markets have belatedly woken up to the rise in government bond yields, as can be seen on the attached charts of the US HY Bond ETF, EM Bond ETF and JPM EMBI Bond spread; and if previous form (see end of last year is any guide) then it will soon be time for the S&P500 to wake up to that reality. Second, as expected, with the BoJ 'locking down' the JGB yield curve, the JPY is acting as the pressure release valve (see 10 and 30 JGB/US Treasury yield spread charts). The parabolic rise in Copper accompanying the sharp previous rise in Iron Ore is given yet another leg up to the large mining stocks, as we recall that it was less than a year ago that Glencore was being "counted out" by a number of analysts and investors. The only problem with the copper price rise is that anecdotally producer and end user activity remains very subdued, so this is all "paper" copper, which does not bode well in terms of sustainability. It should be added that IF Mr Trump can persuade Congress' army of fiscal conservatives to back his infrastructure spending plans, it will take at least a year for this to get any traction in terms of real economy demand. The divergence between the S&P500 / Dow Industrials and Nasdaq, while understandable in terms of the assumptions (far from assured that these will be correct) being made about the beneficiaries of Trump policies, would suggest that the old economy will gain ascendancy over the new economy under Mr Trump, this seems rather misguided, and even if true, it would be very regressive. Indeed with long-term financing rates rising and the old economy being far more capital intensive than the technological economy, this looks to be a rather unlikely proposition. As such the setback in the VIX may well not be durable. Please see mass of charts attached.


from Marc Ostwald
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Michael Carr
  • Article
Equities Technical Analysis Testing Point & Figure Patterns
Replies
0
Views
3K
T2W Bot
T2W Bot
S
Point&Figure
2
Replies
39
Views
7K
subarashi
S
M
Point and Figure
Replies
2
Views
1K
Dentalfloss
Dentalfloss
A
Point and Figure box size for commodities
Replies
4
Views
4K
TWI
TWI
William Rafter
  • Article
Technical Analysis Point & Figure Gone High Tech
Replies
18
Views
8K
GruntnoWay
G
Top