I am building a ftse short position incrementally with small stakes to remain within my risk envelope.
Could well go to 7150 or higher... this will form the basis of a longer term swing trade.
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
- Start date
- Watchers 90
I am building a ftse short position incrementally with small stakes to remain within my risk envelope.
Could well go to 7150 or higher... this will form the basis of a longer term swing trade.
Aside from that will dip and out or duck and weave to pick up a few pips here and there long or short.
Dentalfloss
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- Modest schedule of data features weaker than expected Japan Orders and
French Production, better than forecast UK RICS House Prices ahead of
US weekly jobless claims; Fed & ECB speak; US 30-yr sale; focus on
election market impact, and rise in bond yields
- Rebound in risk assets less surprising when considered in light of
high levels of cash, ongoing QE and general financial repression
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
As markets start to pull away from the US election roller coaster rise, the day's statistical schedule looks busy, but in truth has few likely market movers, outside of the overnight Japan Private Machinery Orders, UK RICS House Price Balance and Norway CPI, ahead of US weekly jobless claims. On the policy front Fed speak from Williams and Bullard will attract attention, with ECB's Mersch and Weidmann also speaking, while unchanged rate decisions seen in Poland and the Philippines. The IEA's monthly Oil Market Report will also be closely watched, as crude attempts to build a short-term base in price terms, and the scepticism on the OPEC production cap 'deal' interacts with optimism that the incoming Trump regime will be rather more hydrocarbon and less environmentally 'friendly'. The US concludes this week's quarterly refunding with $15.0 Bn of 30-yr T-Bonds, for which yesterday's sharp sell-off / curve steepening has fashioned a substantial concession for today's auction. The latter sell-off, which was mirrored in the Eurozone and UK Gilts, and was accompanied by a sharp reversal in the Euro's fortunes will have come as considerable relief to the ECB who, during the very short-lived 'flight to safety' rally, were starting to stare down the barrel of a gun in terms of changes to their QE programme, not to mention the potential drag on inflation from a firmer EUR. Fortunately for the ECB, while governments may not be pulling their weight in any shape or form in terms of reforms and fiscal expenditure adjustments, they are very adept at aiding and abetting political risk, which now moves front and central. Be that as it may, the sell-off at the long end of G7 bond markets fits with the broader picture of the shift from blunt and exhausted monetary stimulus to a greater reliance of fiscalism, which may gain greater traction if the US goes down that path, though much will depend on how willing fiscal conservatives in Congress are willing to cooperate with Mr Trump. It also reflects greater confidence that inflation will revert to more normal levels (it obviously already has in the US, and will in the UK...very rapidly), leaving real yields looking wholly inadequate. As for Initial Claims, these are expected to remain very close to their Q4 average to date at 260K, and per se not offer any signal that the recent uptick in weekly readings is anything more than blip in the current range.
Yesterday's equity market gyrations had a perverse air, though considered against the fact that many investors were cautious going into the lection very long of cash, chastened by the Brexit roller coaster, the near vertical drop was always going to find buyers, given that overweight cash positions were always going to be difficult to justify once the immediate event risk was past. This remains an age of financial repression, and while bond yields have risen, they still offer a pittance in income terms, or nothing at all in much of Europe. It was also a golden opportunity for the hallmark relative value rotation trades in anticipation of an ostensibly less hospitable environment under Trump for the technology companies, given their heavy dependence on foreign production, and equally for the large automakers, while pharmas should benefit from less interference in pricing terms, and financials should eminently benefit from steeper yield curves. Given the well-entrenched trend since the end of Q1 of a rotation of DM into EM equities, it should also come as a little surprise that a more isolationist president should prompt a partial reversal at the very least, the more so given the rebound in the USD, in no small part on the prospect of a modest upward trajectory in US interest rates. Last but not least, it is clear that these ever more frequent moments of ostensible dislocation, or shocks, in financial markets should be considered the new normal, predicated on the lack of market depth dictated by regulations' effective destruction of the old processes of financial market intermediation (aka 'market making'), as well as the self-reinforcing impact on price action of the increasing proportion of assets in passive portfolios, and the ultra short-termism of retail trading accounts. Eminently there are numerous risks on the horizon ranging from the array of upcoming European elections/Italy referendum, through Europe's banking woes and an overall somewhat sluggish global economy, to the ever present threat of further asset liquidations from OPEC/EM SWFs and FX reserve managers either to fill budgetary holes, or the ostensible shortage of offshore dollars. Nevertheless yesterday was again proof that Andrew Haldane was absolutely correct when he opined: "With more activity outside the banking system, and with the banking system itself better protected, the financial system and economy may become less prone to the low-frequency, high-cost banking crises seen in the past. But that is not the end of the story. Risk, like energy, tends to be conserved not dissipated, to change its composition but not its quantum. So it is possible the financial system may exhibit a new strain of systemic risk – a greater number of higher-frequency, higher-amplitude cyclical fluctuations in asset prices and financial activity, now originating on the balance sheets of mutual funds, insurance companies and pension funds."
from Marc Ostwald
French Production, better than forecast UK RICS House Prices ahead of
US weekly jobless claims; Fed & ECB speak; US 30-yr sale; focus on
election market impact, and rise in bond yields
- Rebound in risk assets less surprising when considered in light of
high levels of cash, ongoing QE and general financial repression
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
As markets start to pull away from the US election roller coaster rise, the day's statistical schedule looks busy, but in truth has few likely market movers, outside of the overnight Japan Private Machinery Orders, UK RICS House Price Balance and Norway CPI, ahead of US weekly jobless claims. On the policy front Fed speak from Williams and Bullard will attract attention, with ECB's Mersch and Weidmann also speaking, while unchanged rate decisions seen in Poland and the Philippines. The IEA's monthly Oil Market Report will also be closely watched, as crude attempts to build a short-term base in price terms, and the scepticism on the OPEC production cap 'deal' interacts with optimism that the incoming Trump regime will be rather more hydrocarbon and less environmentally 'friendly'. The US concludes this week's quarterly refunding with $15.0 Bn of 30-yr T-Bonds, for which yesterday's sharp sell-off / curve steepening has fashioned a substantial concession for today's auction. The latter sell-off, which was mirrored in the Eurozone and UK Gilts, and was accompanied by a sharp reversal in the Euro's fortunes will have come as considerable relief to the ECB who, during the very short-lived 'flight to safety' rally, were starting to stare down the barrel of a gun in terms of changes to their QE programme, not to mention the potential drag on inflation from a firmer EUR. Fortunately for the ECB, while governments may not be pulling their weight in any shape or form in terms of reforms and fiscal expenditure adjustments, they are very adept at aiding and abetting political risk, which now moves front and central. Be that as it may, the sell-off at the long end of G7 bond markets fits with the broader picture of the shift from blunt and exhausted monetary stimulus to a greater reliance of fiscalism, which may gain greater traction if the US goes down that path, though much will depend on how willing fiscal conservatives in Congress are willing to cooperate with Mr Trump. It also reflects greater confidence that inflation will revert to more normal levels (it obviously already has in the US, and will in the UK...very rapidly), leaving real yields looking wholly inadequate. As for Initial Claims, these are expected to remain very close to their Q4 average to date at 260K, and per se not offer any signal that the recent uptick in weekly readings is anything more than blip in the current range.
Yesterday's equity market gyrations had a perverse air, though considered against the fact that many investors were cautious going into the lection very long of cash, chastened by the Brexit roller coaster, the near vertical drop was always going to find buyers, given that overweight cash positions were always going to be difficult to justify once the immediate event risk was past. This remains an age of financial repression, and while bond yields have risen, they still offer a pittance in income terms, or nothing at all in much of Europe. It was also a golden opportunity for the hallmark relative value rotation trades in anticipation of an ostensibly less hospitable environment under Trump for the technology companies, given their heavy dependence on foreign production, and equally for the large automakers, while pharmas should benefit from less interference in pricing terms, and financials should eminently benefit from steeper yield curves. Given the well-entrenched trend since the end of Q1 of a rotation of DM into EM equities, it should also come as a little surprise that a more isolationist president should prompt a partial reversal at the very least, the more so given the rebound in the USD, in no small part on the prospect of a modest upward trajectory in US interest rates. Last but not least, it is clear that these ever more frequent moments of ostensible dislocation, or shocks, in financial markets should be considered the new normal, predicated on the lack of market depth dictated by regulations' effective destruction of the old processes of financial market intermediation (aka 'market making'), as well as the self-reinforcing impact on price action of the increasing proportion of assets in passive portfolios, and the ultra short-termism of retail trading accounts. Eminently there are numerous risks on the horizon ranging from the array of upcoming European elections/Italy referendum, through Europe's banking woes and an overall somewhat sluggish global economy, to the ever present threat of further asset liquidations from OPEC/EM SWFs and FX reserve managers either to fill budgetary holes, or the ostensible shortage of offshore dollars. Nevertheless yesterday was again proof that Andrew Haldane was absolutely correct when he opined: "With more activity outside the banking system, and with the banking system itself better protected, the financial system and economy may become less prone to the low-frequency, high-cost banking crises seen in the past. But that is not the end of the story. Risk, like energy, tends to be conserved not dissipated, to change its composition but not its quantum. So it is possible the financial system may exhibit a new strain of systemic risk – a greater number of higher-frequency, higher-amplitude cyclical fluctuations in asset prices and financial activity, now originating on the balance sheets of mutual funds, insurance companies and pension funds."
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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we did ...and dump
excellent
Dentalfloss
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took ftse with it..excellent
Dentalfloss
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dax
10800 rez ...we marked yesterday.....nailed
luvin it
10800 rez ...we marked yesterday.....nailed
luvin it
Dentalfloss
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posted yesterday at 4.21pmFTSE
more detail on where the goodies are for a swing short...if we get there
Dentalfloss
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10800..gotchaamendment to dax
we are in intermed rez now/red trendline break
higher rez area marked
Dentalfloss
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bounce at 2174..prev rez..became supp
took ftse and dax with it
excellent stuff
took ftse and dax with it
excellent stuff
f2calv
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Moneylender
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Hi guys bet you all had a great time yest?
Still holding that short?
Yep - took a bit off @6900 (fm 6985) and moved another to profit. In the red still with another but no worries - Its a swing trade! (small stakes)
Expecting bull and bear traps galore!
Moneylender
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was 18780 the top?
Dentalfloss
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milked it.....good and proper
Dentalfloss
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ftse aswell
Dentalfloss
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good to have you backwas 18780 the top?
how is it..??
Dentalfloss
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DOW
over last 24 hours
that internal /aqua has been taken out......its fumbling now
startin to look ripe
over last 24 hours
that internal /aqua has been taken out......its fumbling now
startin to look ripe
Moneylender
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Just looking in, starting to get ontop of my RE education now so might have a little more time for trading. See how we go.
