Trading with point and figure

DAX
poss reaction areas marked
we either break higher or test those

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guten morgan. dentist ive been having fun with your ftse 6810 res, good stuff. still need to check out that rainwood indicator you talked about, getting the entries right is always a toughie
 
guten morgan. dentist ive been having fun with your ftse 6810 res, good stuff. still need to check out that rainwood indicator you talked about, getting the entries right is always a toughie
Rainwood is only a guide...yu have to adjust the tick according to the volatility
 
Morning all,

Ftse biggies sp 6800, Rez 6850. Think we will go higher.... cable down/oil up (a tad) intermediate sp 6820, 6840, 6870 zones possible 6900 with step changes on the way.

Scalp shorts, longer term longs imho.
 
- China data run and Japan Q3 GDP top data agenda, as Fed and ECB speak
attempts to distract from speculation about Trump policy parameters

- Week Ahead: UK and US top remainder of week's data schedule, focus on CPI
and Retail Sales in both cases; German GDP rounds off the week

- Week Ahead: Yellen and Carney testimony tops busy week for central bank
speakers; no major central bank rate decisions; Oct ECB minutes

- Week Ahead: EU strains and Brexit narratives accompany Trump speculation
as politics continue to cast a long shadow

- Week Ahead: Govt bond supply rather modest, focus on corporate supply
after govt bond rout / steepening, credit spread widening

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

A busy week for economic data from the US, UK and to a lesser extent the Eurozone, kicks off with the barrage of Japan's provisional Q3 GDP and China's Retail Sales, Industrial Production and Fixed Asset Investment, though the remainder of the data schedule is very light. However speculation on what the Trump presidency will mean for the US and global economy, and for politics domestically and internationally will continue to be the overriding theme. Fed and ECB speak will also be plentiful as it is throughout the week. In terms of the overnight data, Japanese GDP beat forecasts at 0.5% q/q or 2.2% SAAR (forecast 0.2%/0.8%), but flattered to deceive in many ways: a) the negative GDP deflator at -0.1% y/y vs expected +0.3% underlines the BoJ is not winning the deflation battle; b) Private CapEx was even weaker than expected at Flat q/q (following Q2 0.1% q/q), c) Private Consumption remains very sluggish at 0.1% q/q (vs. a downwardly revised 0.1% q/q in Q2), d) the only bright spot was 2.3% q/q rising in Housing Investment, clearly boosted by BoJ policy settings, though this was never really an objective. As for China: a) Industrial Production was broadly as expected at a steady 6.1% y/y, with industrial exports remaining weak at -0.2% y/y, though Electricity Production saw a welcome boost to 8.0% y/y, the best level for the year; b) Retail Sales were much weaker than expected at 10.0% y/y vs. a projection of 10.7% y/y, with Auto Sales registering a notable slowdown, it remains to be seen if this will be reversed after very strong "Singles Day" sales last Friday (ca. $17.0 Bln); c) Jan-Oct Fixed Asset Investment was a little better than forecast at 8.3% y/y, with a pick-up in Private Investment to 2.9% y/y from 2.5% clearly the most encouraging aspect, however this looks to be property related; d) Jan-Oct Property Investment accelerated to 6.6% y/y from Jan-Sept, however the steep fall in property transactions in October (Small cities > -50% y/y, Beijing -41% y/y and Shanghai -18% y/y) suggests considerable headwinds; e) the latter probably also explains the latest surge in commodity prices (above all Copper) as China's unfettered and footloose mass of savings looks for another speculative home, in its usual locust like fashion (another equity bubble looks to be pre-programmed in the near future).

The Week Ahead - Bullet point highlights: 14 to 18 November 2016

- A busy week for first division data in the US, UK, Japan and China. Japan's provisional Q3 GDP and China's Retail Sales, Industrial Production and Fixed Asset Investment get the week under way. The US sees Retail Sales, PPI, CPI, Industrial Production, Housing Starts, along with NAHB, NY & Philly Fed surveys, while the UK has CPI, RPI, PPI, ONS House Prices, Unemployment, Average Earnings & Retail Sales. Provisional Q3 GDP for Germany and the remaining Eurozone/EU countries which have not yet reported feature on the continent, and is accompanied by the latest ZEW survey. US CPI is forecast to post a headline rise of 0.4% m/m rise, which would leave the y/y rate marginally higher at 1.6% from 1.5%; however the 3-mth annualized would jump to 3.6% from 2.0%; core CPI is seen up 0.2% for an unchanged 2.2% y/y rate. Retail Sales are forecast to post another very solid 0.6% m/m rise, paced by auto and gasoline sales, though the core Control group measure, which was soft in September at just 0.1%, is expected to pick up to a very solid 0.4%.

- On the policy front, speculation about what Mr Trump can and will actually deliver as president will continue to cast a very long shadow, as will any fresh developments in terms of the Brexit process (as and when it actually gets off the ground), with PM May to speak at the Lord Mayor's Dinner. Today's EU foreign ministers meeting will be closely watched, as intra EU divisions on reaction to Mr Trump's election, security issues and the refugee crisis are all plain to see, and election / Italy referendum related risks cast a very long shadow

- Central bank speakers will be plentiful, but Carney's testimony on the BoE's Q4 Inflation Report to the Treasury Select Committee, and Yellen's testimony to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress will provide the focal points. ECB speakers will also be closely watched, as the widening peripheral govt bond spreads to bonds underline the dilemma the ECB, whenever it decides to start tapering

- Government bond supply in the Eurozone is relatively modest featuring multi-maturity French and Spanish sales, while the UK and US sell 10-yer inflation-linked bonds. The big question is whether the traditional rush of corporate issuance ahead of the Thanksgiving watershed materializes, given ostensibly less hospitable market conditions as govt bond yields and credit spreads widen, while money appears to be exiting passive and active bond funds.


from Marc Ostwald
 
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