The Week Ahead - Bullet point highlights - 1 to 5 August, 2016
- Focal points for the week are clearly Tuesday's expected announcement of the Japan fiscal package, Thursday's Bank of England policy decision and Q3 Inflation Report and Friday's US labour data. China and other final PMIs, US Personal Income/PCE, Auto Sales & Construction Spending', German Factory Orders, a smattering of Fed speak and yet more US & other Corporate Earnings also feature.
- Japan - Fiscal package - said to total JPY 28.0 Trln over three years, though 'only' JPY 7.0 Trln in new fiscal spending, but the question is direct at what? A long history of political 'pork barrel' projects casts a long shadow. Ultimately without changes to Japan's immigration policy (very unlikely), the attritional impact of its very negative demographic trends will continue to undermine any short-/medium-term measures.
- BoE rate decision - Weale's volte face following the PMIs (doubtless exacerbated by the GfK Consumer Confidence) has markets fully discounting a 25 bps rate cut this week, though the benefits to the real economy are likely to be minimal. However with the move fully discounted, no rate cut would be a severe jolt to the UK rate curve. It is unclear what might accompany this in any 'easing package' with a targeted FLS scheme likely to be far more effective than more QE, which would be poison for the Gilt market, and above all pension funds. But again there is clearly insufficient evidence as to where any FLS scheme should be targeted.
- US labour data - after an outsized bounce in June (in part a Verizon strike 'unwind'), Payrolls are seen reverting to their recent average, the Unemployment Rate is expected to drop to 4.8% and as ever Average Earnings to post the usual 0.2% m/m for an unchanged 2.6% y/y. Per se, nothing that should deter the FOMC from hiking rates in September, but there will be another labour report before that meeting.
- Earnings: Aviva, Heineken, HSBC, LinkedIn, Procter & Gamble, Siemens and Tesla are among those due to report quarterly result this week. See also attached US Corporate Earnings schedule.
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Marc Ostwald
Strategist
ADM Investor Services International