Trading with point and figure

dow
a closer look

9qik8z.gif
 
10400 should be a major supp if tested
50% of pole/breakout..10420 area first supp
and aqua underneath
down to 10362
 
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** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

The start of the month statistical is clearly dominated by the usual deluge of Manufacturing PMIs along with US Construction Spending, though the minimal reaction to the run of China and Asian PMIs underlines that markets remain in thrall to the perceived prospect of further central bank easing measures in a strictly Pavlovian fashion. There will also be opportunity to react to last Friday's Bank Stress tests and the accompanying plan to recapitalize the worst performer, Italy's MPS, and the very confused, but ultimately dovish comments from NY Fed's Dudley, signalling caution on raising rates again and risks to the US economy, but then suggesting they may well rise before the US elections, and that 2.0% GDP is a "satisfactory outlook". The MPS plan may not be as simple to implement as might appear to be the case, the more so given its necessity is a rather damning indictment on the two previous, and therefore de facto failed, recapitalizations and rescues. The poor performance of Ireland's two major banks also serves as a timely reminder that Ireland's NTMA 'bad bank' and superficially strong growth performance has proved to be anything but a panacea for an economy and banking sector still bearing the very high local cost of the global financial crisis. US and other corporate earnings will again provide the other focal point for the day. Given the run of other key events and data during the rest of the week, and thin summer volumes, markets may well be rather subdued. In terms of the PMIs, the Eurozone PMIs will primarily be of interest for what they tell us about Spain and Italy, the UK PMI will be eyed for the direction of any revision relative to the preliminary reading, while the US Manufacturing ISM is expected to slip fractionally to 53.0, after a larger than expected, though modest rebound from May's 51.3 to June's 53.2, with particular focus on New Orders, which hit a 3-month high in June at 57.0, though this remained below March's outlier 2016 peak of 58.3.
from Marc Ostwald
 
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