Carney..hint of a rate cut next month
Ostwald saying ..more QE first
Well if Mr Carney was vociferous in warning about economic risks before the referendum,, he has nailed his colours to the post with this speech. One should take some care in assuming that there will be a rate cut immediately, the MPC might rather opt for more QE to accompany the move to have weekly rather than monthly term repo operations, but clearly it is a possibility. It is worth noting his observation that if interest rates go too low, this will hit bank profits and potentially constrict credit availability. The massive criticism of the UK body politic “plan beats no plan” is withering, and there was a clear warning on messing with fiscal sustainability and the BoE’s mandate. It was also interesting to note that he questions “boost from weaker GBP” for exports due to uncertainty. But these comments look to be a case of pouring oil on the fire of the Leave vote, and can hardly be termed as reassuring.
While some markets may rejoice at the prospect of more “easing” (aka stimulus), there will be a lot of criticism that he has undermined confidence even more with his comments, above all GBP, when he should be looking to soothe investors, particularly after another shambolic display of the current state of UK politics. I would not be surprised of there may be even some politicians who call for him to be sacked – that would be a stupid idea, especially given there are no hands on the tiller of government, but….
from Marc Ostwald