Trading with point and figure

Fakeland shown in lilac!!

2j29vgw.jpg
 
Sept gilt future in a pump or dump
128.30
confidence ??
dollar index/dxy...lookin like a bull flag on 60 min candle
could be telling us something,,,who knows
 
Mmm well we should get a bounce in the open as it's now in a previous value area, low of that being 9567. But I want to see it take out 9715 for the start of a down trend
 
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

So to end H1 2016, there is a day that is chock full of economic data, and a number of EM central bank rate decisions, including an expected 25 bps rate hike in Mexico, but all of these items will likely to be playing second fiddle to Brexit developments, which finds BoE governor Carney in the 'hot seat' with his statement and press conference on the UK economy in the wake of the referendum this afternoon. There will also doubtless be speeches from Conservative party leadership contenders Johnson and May (an early poll for the Times has Mrs May leading Mr Johnson 55% to 38%), as nominations for the post close today. In terms of the statistical agenda, there are the Industrial Production readings from Japan and South Korea (with Japan heavily missing forecasts, while South Korea smashed forecasts) along with the always erratic German Retail Sales (better than expected) and French CPI to digest. Ahead lies the UK Q1 Current Account and Index of Services, while Italy and the Eurozone publish CPI, and the US sees weekly jobless claims and the Chicago PMI. The 'account' of the June ECB policy meeting will attract some attention, though these 'minutes' tend to shed little fresh light on policy parameters or the policy outlook. Mr Bullard's speech in London this evening follows his rather controversial shift in terms of the policy outlook (just one rate hike over the next two years), and while not representative of the majority FOMC view, it will be interesting to hear him detail his ideas on the 'new narrative'. In the world of no yield government bonds, Italy sells 5 & 10-yr BTPs today, for which the underperformance relative to its Eurozone peer group over the past week has fashioned something of a concession. In market terms, the recovery in equity markets from the post 'Leave' meltdown has surprised many, though it probably owes more to a combination of some bargain hunting, some portfolio rebalancing ahead of quarter end, enabled and exacerbated by the hefty and well documented pre-referendum under-allocation to equities, and overweight in the supposed safety of 'no yield' government bonds.

In terms of the major data, Eurozone CPI may just miss forecasts of Flat y/y at the headline level and +0.8% y/y for the core, given the modestly lower than expected German reading, and the as expected French CPI. Forecasts for the Index of Services looks for a 0.2% m/m rise, underlining a somewhat sluggish pace for the key sector of the UK economy, though the run of other statistics for Q2 does suggest some upside risks, even if this will be seen as somewhat moot, given a prospective protracted period of uncertainty. By contrast, the UK Q1 Current Account reading (seen narrowing to a still very wide £-28.0 Bln from Q4's £-32.7 Bln) will garner rather more attention, given that this is one of the major yawning gaps in the UK economy, which will not be glossed over as it has been for many years. US jobless claims are expected to remain very low at 267K, which continues to imply that next week's Payrolls will post a solid bounce, thus implying that the May reading was an outlier.
from Marc Ostwald
 
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