** EVENTS PREVIEW **
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As US markets wind down for the Independence Day holiday weekend, as British politics becomes a farce about a satire of a parody, and H2 2016 starts in a fog of uncertainty on numerous fronts, markets may well be very glad it's Friday, especially after the BoE inspired market fireworks going into yesterday's London market close. As the various attached charts attest, markets appear to be sending the message that all of last Friday and Monday's price action was nothing more than a blip, a case of 'move along, nothing to see here', which underlines how severely impaired markets reaction function, how passive job preservation 'investment' strategies continue to dominate in this financially repressed, 'income deficit' dominated world. This dislocation of price activity from the doom, gloom and panic of markets discourse about the global economy bodes very poorly, and will more than likely beget a far more sinister and destructive dislocation, the timing of which remains uncertain. Nevertheless it does, in no small, partly reflect the previously noted under-allocation to equities.
Be that as it may, Manufacturing PMIs dominate a busy schedule of data and surveys, with US Construction Spending and more importantly Auto Sales providing the accompaniment. Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs are as ever seen little changed from the flash readings, and the reports thus far for Eurozone & non-Eurozone European PMI readings painting a rather mixed picture thus far, though for the most part in expansion territory (Ireland rebounding along with Norway, Sweden and Netherlands slipping), echoing an equally mixed picture in Asia, with the Japan Q2 Tankan better than forecast, but incoming official data painting a largely downbeat picture of the economy. The UK PMI is seen unchanged at 50.1, but will be summarily dismissed as pre-referendum. The US Manufacturing ISM will be of particular interest, with forecasters seeing no change from May's rather lacklustre 51.3. The anecdotal evidence from regional surveys has been decidedly mixed, though yesterday's Chicago PMI surge to 56.8 vs. expected 51.0; with Orders at 63.2 v May 48.8, Production at 56.3 vs 47.4 and Order backlogs at 59.7 vs 47.7 proved to be amazingly strong, even if this survey quite frequently dislocates from other regional and national readings. As for US Auto Sales, the consensus looks for little change in SAAR terms relative to May, and the various reports from industry specialists on balance suggest some marginal downside risks, with comparisons to June 2015 complicated by one more "selling day" this year (in contrast to May where there were two less).
from Marc Ostwald