Dentalfloss
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Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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Dentalfloss
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50% of the downtrend = ca 25K
If the cat can bounce that much?
If the cat can bounce that much?
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Dentalfloss
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Agree....These are crazy times50% of the downtrend = ca 25K
If the cat can bounce that much?
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Mornin folks 🤪 🤪 🤪 💋 💋 💋 😄 😄 🥰 🥰 🍾
Dentalfloss
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No US feed
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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- 63,404
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- 3,726
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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- 3,726
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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Dentalfloss
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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 16 March 2020 - ADM ISI
- Central banks go exponential on policy easing; China activity data
collapse; Europe and US act to contain already rapid Covid19 spread
- Central banks hoist by their own petard
- Audio:: the day ahead preview & review of overnight news:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-16-march-2020/
- Charts & Tables
Volatility: VIX, V2X, MOVE Treasury & CVIX FX
Credit: US Investment Grade, High Yield All & HY Energy. JPM EMBI
Commodity: GS S&P Commodity Prices, WTI Oil Future
Equity/Govts: US 10-yr Yields & major equity index futures
Rates: US Fed Funds Rate vs Financial Conditions; USD FRA/OIS spread; USD SOFR vs OIS spreads, China Policy rates
Also: Risk Parity Funds performance and drawdowns
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The new week has begun with an exponential rise in the level of panic and fear that has gripped the world economy and financial markets, prompting central banks around the world to throw the proverbial kitchen sink at markets, though the market reaction overnight and up until the time of writing has been a colossal thumbs down, with markets reverting to meltdown. The fact that both the Fed and the BoJ opted to bring forward their policy meetings underlines their (other central banks’) sense of panic, and their inability to understand that the problems they are trying to deal with are all in the non-bank sector . In effect the Fed is using up all its remaining policy options, outside of increasing volumes of operations (equity purchases will require Congressional legislation), in one fell swoop: cutting rates back to the so-called zero bound, slashing reserve requirements and re-starting QE, while also and perhaps most importantly co-ordinating with other major central banks to pump US dollar liquidity into the offshore USD market. However it should be fairly clear that their collective actions are quixotic, in the sense that they are tilting at the windmills of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, while ignoring the two key facts a) the risks that sat on the balance sheets of banks in the pre-GFC have mutated, precisely as BoE's Haldane anticipated in his 'Halfway Up The Stairs Speech'. To recap: “One of the likely consequences of the crisis, and the resulting regulatory response, is that the financial system will reinvent itself. Financial activity will migrate outside the banking system. And with that move, risk may itself change shape and form. What previously had been credit and maturity mismatch risk on the balance sheet of the banking system may metastasize into market and illiquidity risk on the balance sheets of non-banks.” Adding: “Risk, like energy, tends to be conserved not dissipated, to change its composition but not its quantum. So it is possible the financial system may exhibit a new strain of systemic risk – a greater number of higher-frequency, higher-amplitude cyclical fluctuations in asset prices and financial activity, now originating on the balance sheets of mutual funds, insurance companies and pension funds.” b) The asset price, debt growth and financial engineering bubbles which have been blown by central banks with low, zero or negative rates and QE / associated unconventional policies was never going to be a bubble that could be gently deflated, above all given the fact market making was effectively regulated out of sight, and with it market depth and liquidity, all that was ever required to expose it as the Emperor's New Clothes and the reality of their policy measures as the Picture of Dorian Gray. Until such time as a peak in the Coronavirus spread and its 'seizure' impact on the global economy appears to be dissipating, volatility is not going to drop to more 'normal' levels (from a long-term perspective). Fiscal and legislative measures will be the only effective measures, and there will be at some stage be a debate about whether the central bank 'panic' measures have actually exacerbated the turmoil in markets, though this may be a case of the spineless and mendacious political fraternity looking for a scapegoat, even if central banks are clearly part of the problem, though no more or less than politicians.
For all other comments, please follow the link to the audio commentary above.
========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** =========================
| Inbox | x |
| 09:14 (2 minutes ago) |
|
- Central banks go exponential on policy easing; China activity data
collapse; Europe and US act to contain already rapid Covid19 spread
- Central banks hoist by their own petard
- Audio:: the day ahead preview & review of overnight news:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-16-march-2020/
- Charts & Tables
Volatility: VIX, V2X, MOVE Treasury & CVIX FX
Credit: US Investment Grade, High Yield All & HY Energy. JPM EMBI
Commodity: GS S&P Commodity Prices, WTI Oil Future
Equity/Govts: US 10-yr Yields & major equity index futures
Rates: US Fed Funds Rate vs Financial Conditions; USD FRA/OIS spread; USD SOFR vs OIS spreads, China Policy rates
Also: Risk Parity Funds performance and drawdowns
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The new week has begun with an exponential rise in the level of panic and fear that has gripped the world economy and financial markets, prompting central banks around the world to throw the proverbial kitchen sink at markets, though the market reaction overnight and up until the time of writing has been a colossal thumbs down, with markets reverting to meltdown. The fact that both the Fed and the BoJ opted to bring forward their policy meetings underlines their (other central banks’) sense of panic, and their inability to understand that the problems they are trying to deal with are all in the non-bank sector . In effect the Fed is using up all its remaining policy options, outside of increasing volumes of operations (equity purchases will require Congressional legislation), in one fell swoop: cutting rates back to the so-called zero bound, slashing reserve requirements and re-starting QE, while also and perhaps most importantly co-ordinating with other major central banks to pump US dollar liquidity into the offshore USD market. However it should be fairly clear that their collective actions are quixotic, in the sense that they are tilting at the windmills of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, while ignoring the two key facts a) the risks that sat on the balance sheets of banks in the pre-GFC have mutated, precisely as BoE's Haldane anticipated in his 'Halfway Up The Stairs Speech'. To recap: “One of the likely consequences of the crisis, and the resulting regulatory response, is that the financial system will reinvent itself. Financial activity will migrate outside the banking system. And with that move, risk may itself change shape and form. What previously had been credit and maturity mismatch risk on the balance sheet of the banking system may metastasize into market and illiquidity risk on the balance sheets of non-banks.” Adding: “Risk, like energy, tends to be conserved not dissipated, to change its composition but not its quantum. So it is possible the financial system may exhibit a new strain of systemic risk – a greater number of higher-frequency, higher-amplitude cyclical fluctuations in asset prices and financial activity, now originating on the balance sheets of mutual funds, insurance companies and pension funds.” b) The asset price, debt growth and financial engineering bubbles which have been blown by central banks with low, zero or negative rates and QE / associated unconventional policies was never going to be a bubble that could be gently deflated, above all given the fact market making was effectively regulated out of sight, and with it market depth and liquidity, all that was ever required to expose it as the Emperor's New Clothes and the reality of their policy measures as the Picture of Dorian Gray. Until such time as a peak in the Coronavirus spread and its 'seizure' impact on the global economy appears to be dissipating, volatility is not going to drop to more 'normal' levels (from a long-term perspective). Fiscal and legislative measures will be the only effective measures, and there will be at some stage be a debate about whether the central bank 'panic' measures have actually exacerbated the turmoil in markets, though this may be a case of the spineless and mendacious political fraternity looking for a scapegoat, even if central banks are clearly part of the problem, though no more or less than politicians.
For all other comments, please follow the link to the audio commentary above.
========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** =========================
C
cantagril
Mornin' Squire!
It's just non-stop fun atm; if we're not glued to the screen entranced by the pandemonium in the markets then we're watching the MMA in the supermarkets over toilet paper.
I've been doing very little (even less than usual) trading-wise. Still fiddling about on EG but have basically given up on the CAC for the moment. I know there are big profits to be had but tbh I'm happier with less exciting times - can't put too much strain on my pace-maker and all that. Anyway, fwiw I'm long EurChf this a.m, not expecting any huge moves in either direction but more a range-bound nervous jitter.
I.0540/50 area seems to be holding fairly well and 1.0575ish has been a pivot with 1.0590 zone a range top since the 12th. With that in mind I'm long from 1.550 TPs 75 and 90. Attached chart is 5x3:
It's just non-stop fun atm; if we're not glued to the screen entranced by the pandemonium in the markets then we're watching the MMA in the supermarkets over toilet paper.
I've been doing very little (even less than usual) trading-wise. Still fiddling about on EG but have basically given up on the CAC for the moment. I know there are big profits to be had but tbh I'm happier with less exciting times - can't put too much strain on my pace-maker and all that. Anyway, fwiw I'm long EurChf this a.m, not expecting any huge moves in either direction but more a range-bound nervous jitter.
I.0540/50 area seems to be holding fairly well and 1.0575ish has been a pivot with 1.0590 zone a range top since the 12th. With that in mind I'm long from 1.550 TPs 75 and 90. Attached chart is 5x3:
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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In supp
will it hold..?
will it hold..?
Dentalfloss
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6 Ticks per bar
Dentalfloss
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