Dentalfloss
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Mornin folks 
😄 😄 😄 😁😁🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪
😄 😄 😄 😁😁🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Into the open
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dax
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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Dentalfloss
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Good Morning - Audio Preview & overnight headlines - 2 March 2020 - ADM ISI
1) Tables: Market Implied Central Bank Policy rates a) now vs. b) January 2020!
2) Audio preview - central banks to the rescue?
But no excuse for myopia about scale of disruption as many try to pivot away from China's supply chains - a few questions about that in today's recording
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-2-march-2020/
| Inbox | x |
| 08:42 (22 minutes ago) |
|
1) Tables: Market Implied Central Bank Policy rates a) now vs. b) January 2020!
2) Audio preview - central banks to the rescue?
But no excuse for myopia about scale of disruption as many try to pivot away from China's supply chains - a few questions about that in today's recording
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-2-march-2020/
C
cantagril
Morning Campers,
So, paid work having dried up for a bit, am now back to wondering wtf is going on in the markets - pretty much my default state with the current pox having little effect, either way.
Anyway, after my last crap foray into the indices (Cac, of course) I'm leaving these to you grown-ups and am sticking to Fx . Am currently long EG from .8460 and in spite of myself, I note that having been aiming for the sea-bed for most of Feb it's actually well into the money now. My original order was for TP at .8700 and as it seems to have recovered surprisingly well, I've just added a trail so even I've got his wrong again I'll at least I'll come out pretty much on top....if you don't consider minor details like inefficient use of equity/margin etc etc
So, paid work having dried up for a bit, am now back to wondering wtf is going on in the markets - pretty much my default state with the current pox having little effect, either way.
Anyway, after my last crap foray into the indices (Cac, of course) I'm leaving these to you grown-ups and am sticking to Fx . Am currently long EG from .8460 and in spite of myself, I note that having been aiming for the sea-bed for most of Feb it's actually well into the money now. My original order was for TP at .8700 and as it seems to have recovered surprisingly well, I've just added a trail so even I've got his wrong again I'll at least I'll come out pretty much on top....if you don't consider minor details like inefficient use of equity/margin etc etc
C
cantagril
Out at .87 and admiring the 30 odd extra that I left on the etc etc
Dentalfloss
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C
cantagril
In absolute n° of pips per lot, I have to admit it's one of the best trades I've made for the best part of a year as I usually reckon that anything over 50 per is cause for a celebratory swig ...Excellent
...... but when you consider that I've been sitting on it since Feb 10th when my Support first of all, wasn't (... and then was, Rez - for ages) and that altogether I sat through 16 trading days of which 15 were in DD, then perhaps not so excellent as that - 230/16=14 odd pips p.d gross. Still, compared to the full-on car crash I was half expecting (Lie, mostly expecting) it's a good result.
To remind myself (and possibly others) that Lady Luck can also smile on the dense: "...I did something terribly risky and not all that clever, but once again fortune chose to reward my stupidity." Tim Dowling
Dentalfloss
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Mornin folks 🤪 🤪 🤪 🤪 🤪 🤪🤪🤪🤪🤩🤓🤓🤪🤪🤪
🤪🤪🤪🤪🤩🤓🤓🤪🤪🤪
Dentalfloss
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Dow updated
Dentalfloss
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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 3 March 2020 - ADM ISI
- Modest run of data: digesting Oz Current Account, Turkish CPI; awaiting
UK Construction PMI, South Africa GDP & US Auto Sales; markets still
hostage to Coronavirus news, focus on G7 teleconference, expectations
elevated; various central bank speakers; Austria & German bond sales
- ECB statement hints at "targeted" measures - special TLTRO easier said
than done; fiscal measures far more adaptable and appropriate
- Bond and credit reaction (or lack thereof) leaves plenty of questions
about equity market rebound
- Charts: WTI Oil, US 10-yr yield, VIX, US IG & HY Credit spreads, GS US
Financial Conditions Index, DB Currency Volatility Index
- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-3-march-2020/
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
It being the second working day of the month, the data schedule is none too challenging, and will in any case struggle to impinge on market's steely focus on the Coronavirus and much hoped for / discounted central bank measures to head off some of the economic impact (efficacy and purpose being 'minor details' which markets would prefer not to expend much thought upon. There are the overnight Australia Current Account, Swiss Q4 GDP, Turkish CPI, while ahead lie the UK Construction PMI, Eurozone provisional CPI and US Auto Sales. Australia's RBA cut rates 25 bps to 0.50%, though whether this was part of a 'co-ordinated' G7/G20 effort, which markets are heavily discounting, but did not appear to be the message from the 'leaked' draft of the G7 statement overnight (the meeting takes place late today via teleconference), which looked to be more of the same acting as appropriate' and 'necessary'. The events schedule has a mix of Norges Bank, Riksbank, ECB & Fed speakers, but markets are clearly looking for action, rather than rhetoric. It is also super Tuesday in the US Democrat primaries for the presidential nomination, which will go a long way to deciding which of Biden or Sanders gets the nomination, with the moderate wing of the party seemingly closing ranks behind Biden. Govt bond supply sees Austria sell 10 & 27-yr, with German offering a small amount of 6 & 10-yr Inflation-linked Bunds. Whether yesterday's record bounce in US indices was anything more than a correction or bear market squeeze remains to be seen, credit spreads did not appear to be minded to follow, nor did US Treasury yields, and the only thing that seems assured in the near term is plenty more volatility, and further evidence that central banks and regulators actions since the GFC have created profoundly illiquid market conditions, across most asset classes.
As for ECB Lagarde's brief statement yesterday on ECB policy, see https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2020/html/ecb.pr200302~f2f6113f52.en.html
The key component was: "We stand ready to take appropriate and targeted measures, as necessary and commensurate with the underlying risks", which hints at a special TLTRO to combat the impact of the Coronavirus, given that the timetable for bidding for the next TLTRO-III leans heavily against it being deployed in any measures that the ECB might undertake. Equally, given that the Euro area financial sector remains in a very challenging space, there is an additional question about whether fiscal policy would be rather a more appropriate tool, given that central banks offering incentives for high credit risk arenas is at best dangerous, if not incendiary. The other pitfall is that any such targeted measures would need to have a regional component to them, for which the ECB's 'one size fits all' mandate is totally ill-suited - it is certainly not impossible, but likely to be politically very divisive. Indeed what applies to the ECB in terms of response to the fall-out from the spread of the coronavirus, also applies elsewhere, fiscal policy is a far superior tool for what really does need to be targeted response, above all given the ability to augment measures, or indeed rescind once the need has passed. As former BIS chief Caruana noted a few years ago when asked about the various responses to the GFC and its fall-out:
“The Americans were quite aggressive in forcing recognition of losses and there was a very rapid recapitalisation of the banks. This is why it was successful. The role of quantitative easing is an open question.” He added: "Policy does not lean against the booms, but eases aggressively and persistently during busts. This induces a downward bias in interest rates and an upward bias in debt levels, which in turn makes it hard to raise rates without damaging the economy – a debt trap.” "Systemic financial crises do not become less frequent or intense, private and public debts continue to grow, the economy fails to climb onto a stronger sustainable path, and monetary and fiscal policies run out of ammunition. Over time, policies lose their effectiveness and may end up fostering the very conditions they seek to prevent."
Those sentiments are perhaps even more appropriate at the current juncture.
| Inbox | x |
| 08:51 (35 minutes ago) |
|
- Modest run of data: digesting Oz Current Account, Turkish CPI; awaiting
UK Construction PMI, South Africa GDP & US Auto Sales; markets still
hostage to Coronavirus news, focus on G7 teleconference, expectations
elevated; various central bank speakers; Austria & German bond sales
- ECB statement hints at "targeted" measures - special TLTRO easier said
than done; fiscal measures far more adaptable and appropriate
- Bond and credit reaction (or lack thereof) leaves plenty of questions
about equity market rebound
- Charts: WTI Oil, US 10-yr yield, VIX, US IG & HY Credit spreads, GS US
Financial Conditions Index, DB Currency Volatility Index
- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-3-march-2020/
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
It being the second working day of the month, the data schedule is none too challenging, and will in any case struggle to impinge on market's steely focus on the Coronavirus and much hoped for / discounted central bank measures to head off some of the economic impact (efficacy and purpose being 'minor details' which markets would prefer not to expend much thought upon. There are the overnight Australia Current Account, Swiss Q4 GDP, Turkish CPI, while ahead lie the UK Construction PMI, Eurozone provisional CPI and US Auto Sales. Australia's RBA cut rates 25 bps to 0.50%, though whether this was part of a 'co-ordinated' G7/G20 effort, which markets are heavily discounting, but did not appear to be the message from the 'leaked' draft of the G7 statement overnight (the meeting takes place late today via teleconference), which looked to be more of the same acting as appropriate' and 'necessary'. The events schedule has a mix of Norges Bank, Riksbank, ECB & Fed speakers, but markets are clearly looking for action, rather than rhetoric. It is also super Tuesday in the US Democrat primaries for the presidential nomination, which will go a long way to deciding which of Biden or Sanders gets the nomination, with the moderate wing of the party seemingly closing ranks behind Biden. Govt bond supply sees Austria sell 10 & 27-yr, with German offering a small amount of 6 & 10-yr Inflation-linked Bunds. Whether yesterday's record bounce in US indices was anything more than a correction or bear market squeeze remains to be seen, credit spreads did not appear to be minded to follow, nor did US Treasury yields, and the only thing that seems assured in the near term is plenty more volatility, and further evidence that central banks and regulators actions since the GFC have created profoundly illiquid market conditions, across most asset classes.
As for ECB Lagarde's brief statement yesterday on ECB policy, see https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2020/html/ecb.pr200302~f2f6113f52.en.html
The key component was: "We stand ready to take appropriate and targeted measures, as necessary and commensurate with the underlying risks", which hints at a special TLTRO to combat the impact of the Coronavirus, given that the timetable for bidding for the next TLTRO-III leans heavily against it being deployed in any measures that the ECB might undertake. Equally, given that the Euro area financial sector remains in a very challenging space, there is an additional question about whether fiscal policy would be rather a more appropriate tool, given that central banks offering incentives for high credit risk arenas is at best dangerous, if not incendiary. The other pitfall is that any such targeted measures would need to have a regional component to them, for which the ECB's 'one size fits all' mandate is totally ill-suited - it is certainly not impossible, but likely to be politically very divisive. Indeed what applies to the ECB in terms of response to the fall-out from the spread of the coronavirus, also applies elsewhere, fiscal policy is a far superior tool for what really does need to be targeted response, above all given the ability to augment measures, or indeed rescind once the need has passed. As former BIS chief Caruana noted a few years ago when asked about the various responses to the GFC and its fall-out:
“The Americans were quite aggressive in forcing recognition of losses and there was a very rapid recapitalisation of the banks. This is why it was successful. The role of quantitative easing is an open question.” He added: "Policy does not lean against the booms, but eases aggressively and persistently during busts. This induces a downward bias in interest rates and an upward bias in debt levels, which in turn makes it hard to raise rates without damaging the economy – a debt trap.” "Systemic financial crises do not become less frequent or intense, private and public debts continue to grow, the economy fails to climb onto a stronger sustainable path, and monetary and fiscal policies run out of ammunition. Over time, policies lose their effectiveness and may end up fostering the very conditions they seek to prevent."
Those sentiments are perhaps even more appropriate at the current juncture.
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Mornin folks 🤪🤪🤪🤪🤩🤩🥰🥰🥰😍😍😍
🤪🤪🤪🤪🤩🤩🥰🥰🥰😍😍😍
