Dentalfloss
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Trading with point and figure
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Dentalfloss
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Mornin folks 
😜 😜 😜 😜 😄 😄 😄 😍 😍 🤪 🤪 😁 😁 😁 🥰 🥰 🥰 🍾 🍾 🍾
😜 😜 😜 😜 😄 😄 😄 😍 😍 🤪 🤪 😁 😁 😁 🥰 🥰 🥰 🍾 🍾 🍾
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Early 'carnage' overview & thoughts - Monday 9 March, 2020 - ADM ISI
* Markets overnight: see attached array of charts, listed below
FX - USD Index & Deutsche Bank Currency Volatility, USD 3-mth FRA/OIS Spread
Bonds - World Bond 10 yr yields, US 10 yr yield, MOVE Treasury Volatility
Equities - World Equity Index Futures, VIX & V2X Volatility
Credit - US IG & HY Credit spread - overall and energy sector only, JPM EMBI spread
Commodities - WTI & Brent Crude, Gold, Copper, Corn and Coffee futures
...............................................................
...............................................................
It can probably be safely observed that a busy week ahead for data, above all inflation indicators in major economies (set to collapse in coming months on the back of oil prices), is understandably set to be thrown under the proverbial bus. The data points will be dismissed as historical, with markets focusing on the increasingly rapid spread of Covid19 and accompanying measures to delay and contain the spread, central bank and government actions to mitigate the economic fall-out, and to add insult to injury an all-out oil price war. Hyperbole, hysteria and disinformation will be in plentiful supply, though the due point of focus should be immediate capacity constraints, and supply chain disruptions (short, medium and long-term), as well as how much havoc will be wreaked upon on the massed central bank inspired (coerced? Ed.) armies of asset allocators that have reached for yield and risk, and adhered religiously to BTD, FOMO and TINA, both through experience and central bank assurances that 'it will all be alright on the night'. That latter assertion is now one of the worst modern examples of the 'Emperor's New Clothes' and collective self-deception, which the wave of populism had already given the lie to. As I have previously observed, backward looking regulatory changes (as per the past 12 years) all too often form the seedbed for a new crisis, for which recent bouts of market turmoil offered some evidence, and for which the current meltdown may be the 'QED'. Einstein observed “We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them”.
Things to watch, dismiss and /or ponder:
a) Gresham's Law "bad money drives out good" - in this case keep a close eye on good assets being sold to cover losses elsewhere.
b) Margin calls precipitating much the same effect as a), and perhaps exacerbating c).
c) Funds (of all varieties) being "gated" - Property, Energy and Credit (all descriptions) top the list, but the list could be very long. A look at the attached credit spread charts underlines the point that this could well be a case of 'you ain't seen nothing yet', in so far as the pace of spread widening may be rapid, but absolute levels are in fact no
d) USD reversal from current losses as shortage of offshore USD emerges; keep a very close eye on USD FRA/OIS spread in that respect, Asia looks most vulnerable given that this is where USD borrowing has ballooned most in the past decade, but Euro area with its super weak banking sector clearly not going to be excluded
e) Endless wittering about how 'large' can / will central bank rate cuts and QE be? That is a red herring, the questions are a) how quickly can govts implement fiscal policies to help economies and restore confidence, b) such central bank action will in effect be debt monetization, quite possibly equity monetization, and will likely eventually lead to a debt jubilee (repudiation).
...............................................................
| Inbox | x |
| 07:18 (52 minutes ago) |
|
* Markets overnight: see attached array of charts, listed below
FX - USD Index & Deutsche Bank Currency Volatility, USD 3-mth FRA/OIS Spread
Bonds - World Bond 10 yr yields, US 10 yr yield, MOVE Treasury Volatility
Equities - World Equity Index Futures, VIX & V2X Volatility
Credit - US IG & HY Credit spread - overall and energy sector only, JPM EMBI spread
Commodities - WTI & Brent Crude, Gold, Copper, Corn and Coffee futures
...............................................................
...............................................................
It can probably be safely observed that a busy week ahead for data, above all inflation indicators in major economies (set to collapse in coming months on the back of oil prices), is understandably set to be thrown under the proverbial bus. The data points will be dismissed as historical, with markets focusing on the increasingly rapid spread of Covid19 and accompanying measures to delay and contain the spread, central bank and government actions to mitigate the economic fall-out, and to add insult to injury an all-out oil price war. Hyperbole, hysteria and disinformation will be in plentiful supply, though the due point of focus should be immediate capacity constraints, and supply chain disruptions (short, medium and long-term), as well as how much havoc will be wreaked upon on the massed central bank inspired (coerced? Ed.) armies of asset allocators that have reached for yield and risk, and adhered religiously to BTD, FOMO and TINA, both through experience and central bank assurances that 'it will all be alright on the night'. That latter assertion is now one of the worst modern examples of the 'Emperor's New Clothes' and collective self-deception, which the wave of populism had already given the lie to. As I have previously observed, backward looking regulatory changes (as per the past 12 years) all too often form the seedbed for a new crisis, for which recent bouts of market turmoil offered some evidence, and for which the current meltdown may be the 'QED'. Einstein observed “We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them”.
Things to watch, dismiss and /or ponder:
a) Gresham's Law "bad money drives out good" - in this case keep a close eye on good assets being sold to cover losses elsewhere.
b) Margin calls precipitating much the same effect as a), and perhaps exacerbating c).
c) Funds (of all varieties) being "gated" - Property, Energy and Credit (all descriptions) top the list, but the list could be very long. A look at the attached credit spread charts underlines the point that this could well be a case of 'you ain't seen nothing yet', in so far as the pace of spread widening may be rapid, but absolute levels are in fact no
d) USD reversal from current losses as shortage of offshore USD emerges; keep a very close eye on USD FRA/OIS spread in that respect, Asia looks most vulnerable given that this is where USD borrowing has ballooned most in the past decade, but Euro area with its super weak banking sector clearly not going to be excluded
e) Endless wittering about how 'large' can / will central bank rate cuts and QE be? That is a red herring, the questions are a) how quickly can govts implement fiscal policies to help economies and restore confidence, b) such central bank action will in effect be debt monetization, quite possibly equity monetization, and will likely eventually lead to a debt jubilee (repudiation).
...............................................................
C
cantagril
Morning!
It's just fun, fun ,fun these days.
I'm not really involved as I've been mostly sitting on my appendages(!) and have been either just watching or doing small size on my mickey mouse account.
I've avoided the indices completely for a while but went long on the stoxx earlier at 2940. I've got TP in at 3050 being a little below the 50% mark and a trail itm already
On the basis that moves of a few percent seem to be the new norm I'm in two minds as to whether I should dump it before the markets open the other side of the pond...
It's just fun, fun ,fun these days.
I'm not really involved as I've been mostly sitting on my appendages(!) and have been either just watching or doing small size on my mickey mouse account.
I've avoided the indices completely for a while but went long on the stoxx earlier at 2940. I've got TP in at 3050 being a little below the 50% mark and a trail itm already
On the basis that moves of a few percent seem to be the new norm I'm in two minds as to whether I should dump it before the markets open the other side of the pond...
C
cantagril
No need to fret after all.I've avoided the indices completely for a while but went long on the stoxx earlier at 2940. I've got TP in at 3050 being a little below the 50% mark and a trail itm already
On the basis that moves of a few percent seem to be the new norm I'm in two minds as to whether I should dump it before the markets open the other side of the pond...
3050 target hit a few minutes ago for +90.
That's me done for the day, byeeee...
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Mornin folks 🍾 🍾 😜 😜 😜 😍 😍 😄 😄 🤪 🤪 🤪 💋 💋 💋 😁 😁 😁 😁 😁
😜 😜 😜 😍 😍 😄 😄 🤪 🤪 🤪 💋 💋 💋 😁 😁 😁 😁 😁
Dentalfloss
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Dow into the open
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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