Dentalfloss
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spot on
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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stops very tight now
Dentalfloss
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Excellent stuff
Dentalfloss
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Now what
Dentalfloss
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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 14 January 2020 - ADM ISI
- Digesting China Trade and Japan services, awaiting US NFIB survey and CPI, ECB
& Fed speakers and US Q4 earnings 'kick-off'; Italy, Netherlands & UK to sell
bonds; also digesting IIF report on global debt
- China Trade: welcome jump in Exports and Imports, though plenty of quirks
underline that underlying trends not nearly as robust; litmus comes with
trend post 'trade deal' and lunar new year distortions
- US NFIB survey: seen little changed after Nov jump, employment measures
suggest downside risks
- US CPI: energy base effects to pace headline pick-up, core seen steady;
'nothing to see here' for Fed
- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-14-january-2020/
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The day's data schedule is modest in numerical terms, but with the Chain's Trade Balance and the Japan's Economy Watchers (services) survey to digest, and US CPI and NFIB Small Business Optimism survey ahead, it is not without major highlights. But it will probably be the US Q4 earnings 'kick-off' with JPM, Citigroup and Wells Fargo reporting which generate the majority of the headlines, outside of anything trade or geo-politics related. Central bank speakers are relatively plentiful via was of ECB's de Cos and Mersch and Fed's George and Williams, while a busier day for govt bond sales has auctions in Italy, Netherlands and the UK. The latest IIF report on Global Debt 'shattering records' requires attention, above all with total world debt reaching 320%, and developed world 383% of GDP - the fact is that this is not going to be repaid, and at some stage will involve some form of 'debt jubilee'. But with official rates still firmly in full 'repression' mode, this will doubtless be ignored, with rather more attention today likely to be given to the NY Fed's announcement of its Q1 and provisional Q2 schedule for outright T-Bill purchases (for $60 Bln / month is 'baked in the cake') and Open Market Operations (volumes less clear).
** U.S.A. - December CPI / NFIB Small Business Optimism **
- Ahead of CPI, the NFIB Small Business Optimism survey is forecast to be little changed at 104.8 after rebounding relatively sharply to 104.7 in November. However with the already published employment components seeing a 2 pt drop in hiring plans to 19%, and a sharper setback in "Positions not able to fill" to 33% from 38% (still very robust), the risks would appear to be to the downside of the consensus. CPI is forecast to rise a very average 0.2% m/m ob both headline and core, which would see the headline rate bump up to 2.4% y/y from 2.1%, mainly thanks to base effects in energy, but leave core unchanged at 2.3%. Neither reading will offer the Fed any headaches, particularly given the unexpected setback in Average Hourly Earnings to 2.9%
** China - Dec Trade Balance **
- As ever the inherent volatility of the series above all in this era of trade tensions, tariff circumvention flows and seemingly incessant supply chain hiccoughs and outright disruptions needs to be kept in mind in any interpretation of underlying trends. Thus the sizeable 'beat' on both Exports (7.6% y/y vs forecast 2.9%) and Imports (16.3% y/y vs forecast 9.6%) was as expected primarily paced by agricultural imports, though as much due to a general rebound in US Agri imports, as well as the necessity due to ASF in terms of the four-fold increase in Pork Imports and some quirks in terms of arrival schedules of grains and beans imports from Latin America, above all Brazil. Likewise strength in Energy (but not coal) Imports was to some extent predicated by producers ensuring that Import quotas were fully utilized ahead of year end. But the real question is what happens going forward, with the phase on US / China trade still scheduled to be signed tomorrow, and overnight reports of China committing to a major increase in in energy imports and manufactured goods, though in terms of the latter the question on autos is the extent to which this will impair demand for European autos, given the enormous cloud that is already hanging over the sector.
========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================
********************
** TODAY'S EVENTS **
********************
| Inbox | x |
| 09:06 (38 minutes ago) |
|
- Digesting China Trade and Japan services, awaiting US NFIB survey and CPI, ECB
& Fed speakers and US Q4 earnings 'kick-off'; Italy, Netherlands & UK to sell
bonds; also digesting IIF report on global debt
- China Trade: welcome jump in Exports and Imports, though plenty of quirks
underline that underlying trends not nearly as robust; litmus comes with
trend post 'trade deal' and lunar new year distortions
- US NFIB survey: seen little changed after Nov jump, employment measures
suggest downside risks
- US CPI: energy base effects to pace headline pick-up, core seen steady;
'nothing to see here' for Fed
- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-14-january-2020/
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The day's data schedule is modest in numerical terms, but with the Chain's Trade Balance and the Japan's Economy Watchers (services) survey to digest, and US CPI and NFIB Small Business Optimism survey ahead, it is not without major highlights. But it will probably be the US Q4 earnings 'kick-off' with JPM, Citigroup and Wells Fargo reporting which generate the majority of the headlines, outside of anything trade or geo-politics related. Central bank speakers are relatively plentiful via was of ECB's de Cos and Mersch and Fed's George and Williams, while a busier day for govt bond sales has auctions in Italy, Netherlands and the UK. The latest IIF report on Global Debt 'shattering records' requires attention, above all with total world debt reaching 320%, and developed world 383% of GDP - the fact is that this is not going to be repaid, and at some stage will involve some form of 'debt jubilee'. But with official rates still firmly in full 'repression' mode, this will doubtless be ignored, with rather more attention today likely to be given to the NY Fed's announcement of its Q1 and provisional Q2 schedule for outright T-Bill purchases (for $60 Bln / month is 'baked in the cake') and Open Market Operations (volumes less clear).
** U.S.A. - December CPI / NFIB Small Business Optimism **
- Ahead of CPI, the NFIB Small Business Optimism survey is forecast to be little changed at 104.8 after rebounding relatively sharply to 104.7 in November. However with the already published employment components seeing a 2 pt drop in hiring plans to 19%, and a sharper setback in "Positions not able to fill" to 33% from 38% (still very robust), the risks would appear to be to the downside of the consensus. CPI is forecast to rise a very average 0.2% m/m ob both headline and core, which would see the headline rate bump up to 2.4% y/y from 2.1%, mainly thanks to base effects in energy, but leave core unchanged at 2.3%. Neither reading will offer the Fed any headaches, particularly given the unexpected setback in Average Hourly Earnings to 2.9%
** China - Dec Trade Balance **
- As ever the inherent volatility of the series above all in this era of trade tensions, tariff circumvention flows and seemingly incessant supply chain hiccoughs and outright disruptions needs to be kept in mind in any interpretation of underlying trends. Thus the sizeable 'beat' on both Exports (7.6% y/y vs forecast 2.9%) and Imports (16.3% y/y vs forecast 9.6%) was as expected primarily paced by agricultural imports, though as much due to a general rebound in US Agri imports, as well as the necessity due to ASF in terms of the four-fold increase in Pork Imports and some quirks in terms of arrival schedules of grains and beans imports from Latin America, above all Brazil. Likewise strength in Energy (but not coal) Imports was to some extent predicated by producers ensuring that Import quotas were fully utilized ahead of year end. But the real question is what happens going forward, with the phase on US / China trade still scheduled to be signed tomorrow, and overnight reports of China committing to a major increase in in energy imports and manufactured goods, though in terms of the latter the question on autos is the extent to which this will impair demand for European autos, given the enormous cloud that is already hanging over the sector.
========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================
********************
** TODAY'S EVENTS **
********************
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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A tad out on rez...who cares
Excellent
Excellent
Dentalfloss
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Ditto
AdamCantor
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what broker and platform you using here? if i may ask
Point and figure software Bulls-Eye Broker
bullseyebroker.com
Dentalfloss
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I export the dat from MT4 into Bulls eye for the p/f charts
otherwise u i use MT4 and Netdania
Dentalfloss
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Mornin folks...A happy tariff day to all 😀😀😀🙄🙄🙄😍🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🍷🍷
Dentalfloss
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Crossed the line..Will it stay under.?
Dentalfloss
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Updated
Dentalfloss
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No real sign of selling...as yet
Dentalfloss
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sllers need blue as rez on the bounce
Dentalfloss
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care with sells
poss bull flag brewing
poss bull flag brewing
Dentalfloss
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Pink is bull trap area
Dentalfloss
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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 20 January 2020 - ADM ISI
- All eyes on US/China trade deal signing; UK CPI, RPI, & PPI; Sweden CPI,
US PPI & NY Fed survey; BoE, ECB & Fed speakers; Fed Beige Book; more US
Q4 financials reporting earnings; German 30-yr
- USA/China: much touted, much anticipated and seemingly plenty of scope for
disappointment as details suggest little in the way of a boost, and still
heightened risk of re-escalation of tensions
- UK / US inflation indicators expected to remain very well contained
- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-15-january-202/
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
It's US/China 'phase one' trade deal signing day, which will doubtless hog many of the day's headlines. German preliminary 2019 GDP, the full array of UK inflation readings, US PPI and the January NY Fed Manufacturing survey top the data schedule. A busy day for central bank speakers will doubtless focus on BoE's Saunders, given heightened speculation about a UK rate cut, though there are Kuroda, ECB's Holzmann and Fed's Harker and Kaplan also on hand, along with the Fed's Beige Book. Financials again dominate the US corporate earnings schedule with Bank of America, Goldman, PNC and Blackrock reporting, as is UnitedHealth. Germany follows Japan's 5-yr sale with an as ever modestly sized EUR 1.5 Bln of 30-yr. As previously noted, the signing of the US/China 'phase one' trade deal today is more than well discounted, b) is only positive from the modest rollback of tensions, with the tariff rollback delayed until phase two is agreed and probably until after US elections, and indeed c) has enforcement clauses which suggest a high risk of re-escalation, and d) even if re-escalation does not occur (for whatever reason), it appears unlikely to give the global economy a significant, if any, boost; a still seemingly elusive recovery in the auto and telecoms tech sectors looks to be of far more importance. There are also more deep seated questions about the extent to which China's proposed increase of US agricultural, energy and manufactured goods will displace imports from the EU and Asia, and how quickly this can be implemented, given extant contracts will have to be observed.
The advance estimate of German 2019 GDP is expected to confirm very tepid 0.6% y/y growth, but despite that the budget surplus as a % of GDP is still seen at 1.2%, admittedly less than 2018's 1.7%, but underlining just how badly skewed the German economy is in terms of the government's fiscal priorities. That said, the issue remains as much, if not more about how fiscal spending is planned and executed, than the very abstract and rather meaningless metric of 'as a percentage of GDP'. Japan's November Private Machinery Orders are expected to rebound 3.0% m/m, but only improving marginally to a still -5.4% y/y sharp decline from October's -6.1%, with the focus on Services sector demand, which was more than offsetting Manufacturing sector weakness in H1, but has latterly faded. US PPI is seen remaining very subdued, with a modest 0.2% m/m and 1.3% y/y expected for headline and ex-Food & Energy.
| Inbox | x |
| 09:12 (15 minutes ago) |
|
- All eyes on US/China trade deal signing; UK CPI, RPI, & PPI; Sweden CPI,
US PPI & NY Fed survey; BoE, ECB & Fed speakers; Fed Beige Book; more US
Q4 financials reporting earnings; German 30-yr
- USA/China: much touted, much anticipated and seemingly plenty of scope for
disappointment as details suggest little in the way of a boost, and still
heightened risk of re-escalation of tensions
- UK / US inflation indicators expected to remain very well contained
- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-15-january-202/
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
It's US/China 'phase one' trade deal signing day, which will doubtless hog many of the day's headlines. German preliminary 2019 GDP, the full array of UK inflation readings, US PPI and the January NY Fed Manufacturing survey top the data schedule. A busy day for central bank speakers will doubtless focus on BoE's Saunders, given heightened speculation about a UK rate cut, though there are Kuroda, ECB's Holzmann and Fed's Harker and Kaplan also on hand, along with the Fed's Beige Book. Financials again dominate the US corporate earnings schedule with Bank of America, Goldman, PNC and Blackrock reporting, as is UnitedHealth. Germany follows Japan's 5-yr sale with an as ever modestly sized EUR 1.5 Bln of 30-yr. As previously noted, the signing of the US/China 'phase one' trade deal today is more than well discounted, b) is only positive from the modest rollback of tensions, with the tariff rollback delayed until phase two is agreed and probably until after US elections, and indeed c) has enforcement clauses which suggest a high risk of re-escalation, and d) even if re-escalation does not occur (for whatever reason), it appears unlikely to give the global economy a significant, if any, boost; a still seemingly elusive recovery in the auto and telecoms tech sectors looks to be of far more importance. There are also more deep seated questions about the extent to which China's proposed increase of US agricultural, energy and manufactured goods will displace imports from the EU and Asia, and how quickly this can be implemented, given extant contracts will have to be observed.
The advance estimate of German 2019 GDP is expected to confirm very tepid 0.6% y/y growth, but despite that the budget surplus as a % of GDP is still seen at 1.2%, admittedly less than 2018's 1.7%, but underlining just how badly skewed the German economy is in terms of the government's fiscal priorities. That said, the issue remains as much, if not more about how fiscal spending is planned and executed, than the very abstract and rather meaningless metric of 'as a percentage of GDP'. Japan's November Private Machinery Orders are expected to rebound 3.0% m/m, but only improving marginally to a still -5.4% y/y sharp decline from October's -6.1%, with the focus on Services sector demand, which was more than offsetting Manufacturing sector weakness in H1, but has latterly faded. US PPI is seen remaining very subdued, with a modest 0.2% m/m and 1.3% y/y expected for headline and ex-Food & Energy.
