Trading with point and figure

Dentalfloss · Jan 16, 2020

pump..yes sir

Dentalfloss · Jan 16, 2020

our line became supp

Dentalfloss · Jan 16, 2020

Our levels worked a treat......But,dont call em
trade the price movement

Dentalfloss · Jan 16, 2020

gettin toasted

Dentalfloss · Jan 16, 2020

gismeu said:
Thanks for your reply Dentalfloss,

but not always does a picture say more than a 1000 words.
Could you please at least add a few crumbs of wisdom or words?
It's very enigmatic to me

Thanks, gis

lookin at that later

Dentalfloss · Jan 16, 2020

more scalps

Dentalfloss · Jan 16, 2020

goin to pump or dump our rez

Dentalfloss · Jan 16, 2020

Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 20 January 2020 - ADM ISI

Inbox

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Ostwald, Marc

09:04 (1 minute ago)

to Marc

- Markets still mulling US/China trade deal consequences; busier day for data
has stellar Japan Orders, encouraging TSMC 2020 semiconductor outlook,
China monetary aggregates & UK RICS House Price balance to digest

- Awaiting BoE UK Bank/Credit surveys, US Retail Sales, Philly fed, Jobless
Claims, Import Prices & NAHB; Lagarde & Haldane to speak; rate cuts seen
in Turkey & Egypt, SARB on hold; more US bank earnings

- Japan Orders and TSMC earnings offer welcome signals for semiconductor
sector; but EU27 Auto Sales very flattered by base effects and emission
rules changes, unlikely to signal upturn

- US Retail Sales: rebound expected as Thanksgiving timing effects unwind,
amid upbeat signals on 'holiday' spending from online reatilers

- US NAHB Housing Index: marginal setback seen after posting cyclical high
in December

- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-16-january-2020/

- FWIW: via Le Fonti International yesterday some thoughts on
US Earnings, US/China Trade deal, German GDP:

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

A busy schedule of US data awaits, and is accompanied by some G7 central bank speakers and EM central bank policy meetings, with BoNY Mellon and Morgan Stanley topping the run of US Q4 earnings reports. Ahead of the potentially key US Retail Sales, there are the overnight Japan Orders, UK RICS House Price Balance and Australia's Housing Finance to digest, with the US also looking to the Philly Fed Manufacturing and NAHB Housing surveys, Import Prices, weekly jobless claims and Business Inventories. The Bank of England publishes its quarterly Bank Liabilities & Credit Conditions survey, which will bear some scrutiny, less in terms of what may or may not emerge in terms of a post Brexit regime for UK/EU financial services rules, and more in terms of overall financial conditions over Q4, and expectations in coming months following the election and the immediate alleviation of Brexit related constraints. Lagarde and BoE chief economist top the run of speakers, while further rates cuts in Turkey (50 bps) and Egypt (75 bps) are expected, and South Africa's SARB is seen holding rates despite some market chatter about a cut, with the focus on how much it cuts its GDP forecast for 2020. That said, the prospect of a sovereign rating cut (Moody's tops the list) due to a lack of structural reforms suggests the SARB's room for policy manoeuvre will remain very constrained. On the political front, the signing of the US/China trade deal should allow this to take more of a 'back seat' (in the near-term) as a major factor for markets, and allows the impeachment melodrama to move centre stage in the short-term. That said there will be continued speculation about the winners and losers from the manufactured goods element of the US/China trade 'deal'. On the Agricultural side, this article in the Global Times (seen as a media mouthpiece for China's authorities) offers hefty hints on which sectors will benefit (Soy, Pork, Cotton), others that only may benefit but on a criteria basis (' high-quality wheat and other agricultural products that have a quality or price advantage over domestic ones') - https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1176962.shtml.

In terms of the overnight data, the very sharp rebound in Japan's Machinery Orders suggests that October's setback was a blip, with Service sector demand for automation solutions due to a tight labour market and the Olympics still robust, though in terms of looking at underlying trends the two months are best seen in aggregate. Given the structural headwinds in the auto and telecoms/tech sectors were a major drag on global growth in 2019, the Taiwan TSMC earnings and outlook offer some signs that demand for semiconductors is set to rebound. By contrast the surge in EU 27 Auto Sales (21.78% y/y) was both flattered by base effects, and indeed by a rush to buy ahead of the new EU emissions rules that came into force on 1 January, and the real test will be how sales 'pan out' in Q1. Over in China, the monetary and credit aggregates were mixed in the sense that the New Yuan Loans marginally missed expectations at CNY 1.15 Trln suggesting that the PBOC efforts to stimulate business lending have little impact thus far, while the much stronger than expected jump to CNY 2.1 Trln in Aggregate Social Financing was boosted by the front loading of Municipal Govt borrowing (which has seen a whopping further CNY 495 Trln increase this week alone). Tomorrow's FAI (seen at unchanged 5.2% y/y) is however likely to suggest that this surge in municipal borrowing is primarily acting to steady, rather than boost growth. Interestingly a report from China's State (electricity) Grid yesterday suggested GDP growth is likely to slow to just 4.0% in the next 5 years, which is notable for the fact State Gri's forecasts have historically tended to be overly optimistic!

** U.S.A. - Retail Sales, Philly Fed Manufacturing & NAHB Housing Market Index **
- Retail Sales are expected to pick up after soft readings in November, with Auto Sales seen restraining headline to just 0.3% m/m, but ex-Autos forecast to rise 0.5% m/m. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the November weakness was in part due to the late timing of Thanksgiving, and online 'holiday' sales report have generally been strong, though 'bricks and mortar' stores continued to post very weak results. A jump in CPI gasoline prices should also boost headline and ex-autos. December's 'weak' Philly Fed survey was a very typical case of the headline (non-composite) being much weaker than the details, and along with a small uptick in yesterday's NY survey suggests some slight upside risks relative to the projected 3.6 vs. Dec 2.4. The NAHB's Housing Market Index is expected to edge back to 74 after surging to a cyclical high of 76 in December, thus underlining that this sector remains an undisputed bright spot in the economy, above all propped by low mortgage rates. Overall the day's run of data should support the Fed's view that the US economy is in 'a good place'.