Dentalfloss
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signals..our 13450 line became supp
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Level was spot on
ERRRRRR.....Dont call levels
ERRRRRR.....Dont call levels
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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C
cantagril
....and a very Good Day to your Hugeness
I reckon yr Dax 450 rez equates to c. 5940/50 area on the cac but I'm only 1 lot so I'll take what's on offer over the next couple of hours.
Dentalfloss
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Our trendline held
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Will it break.?
Dentalfloss
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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 9 January 2020 - ADM ISI
- Digesting China CPI & PPI, German Trade & Production and UK BRC Sales,
awaiting Eurozone Unemployment and US jobless claims; focus on raft of
major central bank speakers; politics and trade still the aces in the
pack
- USA/Iran: welcome step back from escalation, but risks remain high,
bigger picture perspective needed
- Brexit: von der Leyen and Johnson trot out familiar narratives, but
posturing rhetoric less relevant than brass tacks negotiations;
financial services and regulatory alignment likely the key battlegrounds
- China CPI/PPI: some easing of still very high food prices, core CPI and
overall PPI trends very subdued
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
While the day's economic data schedule is modest in volume terms, the overnight China inflation readings and the German Industrial Production and Trade data will need to be digested, ahead of Eurozone Unemployment and US weekly jobless Claims, with Household Spending due tonight in Japan. But the raft of BoE, ECB, Fed and BoC speakers will be the main distractor from geopolitical and trade issues, with the BoE's Inflation Targetting conference featuring Carney, Lane & Williams, while speeches from Fed's Clarida, ECB's newly appointed board member Schnabel and a 'fireside chat' with Bank of Canada's Poloz will be watched for any policy signals, though in all cases the message is likely to be one of there being no need to take any action in the near-term, but being ready to act should downside risks to the economic outlook start to crystallize. A busier day for govt bond auction has multi-maturity sales in France and Spain, 8-yr Index-linked in the UK, while the US rounds off this week's refunding exercise with $16 Bln of 30-yr.
In terms of geopolitics in the Gulf, I would refer back to the 'Ghost In The Machine' pieces that I wrote in mid-2018 for some background references (see links below). The key point from the Iran piece is simply that, to drive Iran to a point of no return in terms of regime change, the one thing that will ensure that the mullahs remain in power is anything which looks like, or de facto is, foreign interference, which galvanizes an overwhelming sense of national unity in Iram, even if the country is as deeply divided as it is about its own regime, as has been all too obvious for a number of years, given the dire state of the economy. This is not to endorse the diabolical regime or its IRGC enforcers at home and abroad, but rather to suggest that the death of Soleimani and just as importantly iran backed militia leader Mahdi al-Muhandis has relegated economic concerns in Iran to the backburner, and also perhaps spoked the nascent rebirth of Iraqi 'nationalism', which above all seeks to sharply reduce the influence of Iran in Iraqi politics. While there would appear to be some attempt at de-escalation of the current tensions between the US and Iran, the immediate risk is that the Iran backed Iraqi militias take some form of unilateral action (in revenge for the death of Mahdi al-Muhandis), which re-escalates those tensions - hopefully Iran has sufficient control over those militias and along with the now seemingly ubiquitous behind the scenes influence of Russia. It should also be remembered, that previous Iranian 'revenge' attacks have often taken place in distant locations, and a long time after the original event. As but one example, in 2012, assassins (likely directed by Israel) killed an Iranian nuclear chemist. Iran promised revenge. But it was only a month later in Georgia, India and Thailand where Israeli diplomats were targeted with bombs.
a) Iran - https://content.yudu.com/web/400wi/0A400wk/June2018/html/index.html?page=6&origin=reader
b) The Ashes of the Arab Spring - https://content.yudu.com/web/400wi/0A400wk/JULYAUGUST2018/html/index.html?page=4&origin=reader
In terms of the post-Brexit negotiations between the UK and EU, Commission President von der Leyen's speech at the LSE yesterday underlined a couple of key points, which the EU has made on many a previous occasion, namely that it will be pretty much impossible to negotiate a deal with the UK by the end of 2020, given the colossal scope of what is needed, and that both sides should focus on areas that are not covered by wider international treaties, and it was not a case of 'all or nothing'. She also underlined that the EU would like to see a 'no tariffs, no quotas and no dumping' deal on goods trade, but in broader terms underlining that the more that the UK seeks to diverge in terms of standards and regulations, the higher will be the barriers as the EU must defend the integrity of the Single Market and Customs Union. The interesting point of additional emphasis was on financial services, where she said 'it is a matter of trade off and choices, and nothing will be as it was before, all will change, we have to accept that fact'. UK PM Johnson however stressed divergence, rejecting any kind of alignment with EU rules or any ECJ jurisdiction, and unsurprisingly playing to the gallery with talk about 'control' over immigration an UK fishing waters. At the end of the day, this is for the time being all about posturing rhetoric, what is important will be what is actually negotiated.
In terms of the overnight data, China's CPI was lower than forecast at an unchanged 4.5% y/y, with a modest easing in Food Price inflation to 17.4% y/y, offset in part by an uptick in Non-food prices to a still very subdued 1.3% y/y from 1.0%; the latter again underlines that core inflation remains very subdued, and per se gives the PBOC room to ease policy rates further. PPI dropped back from -0.1% y/y in November to -0.5%, but more adverse base effects from energy prices in H1 should see this edge back into positive territory. German Industrial Production posted its best m/m gain (1.1%) in 18 months, though remains in negative territory in y/y terms at at -2.6%, with a boost from construction (2.6% m/m) and manufacturing & mining (1.0% m/m), the latter perhaps a transient boost from the surge in auto demand due to the new emission rules that kicked in on 1 January. Trade data were soft, with Exports dropping a larger than expected 2.3% m/m, but this follows increases four of the 5 prior months, including 1.5% m/m in September & October and thus continues to suggest that the export demand is improving in trend terms. Last but not least, UK BRC Retail Sales were much better than expected in monthly terms at +1.7% y/y vs a forecast of -0.5% and November's dire -4.9% y/y, but as both month's readings were a function of Black Friday/Cyber Monday timing effects, the aggregated Nov/Dec decline of -1.5% y/y is rather more instructive in trend terms.
| Inbox | x |
| 09:21 (1 minute ago) |
|
- Digesting China CPI & PPI, German Trade & Production and UK BRC Sales,
awaiting Eurozone Unemployment and US jobless claims; focus on raft of
major central bank speakers; politics and trade still the aces in the
pack
- USA/Iran: welcome step back from escalation, but risks remain high,
bigger picture perspective needed
- Brexit: von der Leyen and Johnson trot out familiar narratives, but
posturing rhetoric less relevant than brass tacks negotiations;
financial services and regulatory alignment likely the key battlegrounds
- China CPI/PPI: some easing of still very high food prices, core CPI and
overall PPI trends very subdued
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
While the day's economic data schedule is modest in volume terms, the overnight China inflation readings and the German Industrial Production and Trade data will need to be digested, ahead of Eurozone Unemployment and US weekly jobless Claims, with Household Spending due tonight in Japan. But the raft of BoE, ECB, Fed and BoC speakers will be the main distractor from geopolitical and trade issues, with the BoE's Inflation Targetting conference featuring Carney, Lane & Williams, while speeches from Fed's Clarida, ECB's newly appointed board member Schnabel and a 'fireside chat' with Bank of Canada's Poloz will be watched for any policy signals, though in all cases the message is likely to be one of there being no need to take any action in the near-term, but being ready to act should downside risks to the economic outlook start to crystallize. A busier day for govt bond auction has multi-maturity sales in France and Spain, 8-yr Index-linked in the UK, while the US rounds off this week's refunding exercise with $16 Bln of 30-yr.
In terms of geopolitics in the Gulf, I would refer back to the 'Ghost In The Machine' pieces that I wrote in mid-2018 for some background references (see links below). The key point from the Iran piece is simply that, to drive Iran to a point of no return in terms of regime change, the one thing that will ensure that the mullahs remain in power is anything which looks like, or de facto is, foreign interference, which galvanizes an overwhelming sense of national unity in Iram, even if the country is as deeply divided as it is about its own regime, as has been all too obvious for a number of years, given the dire state of the economy. This is not to endorse the diabolical regime or its IRGC enforcers at home and abroad, but rather to suggest that the death of Soleimani and just as importantly iran backed militia leader Mahdi al-Muhandis has relegated economic concerns in Iran to the backburner, and also perhaps spoked the nascent rebirth of Iraqi 'nationalism', which above all seeks to sharply reduce the influence of Iran in Iraqi politics. While there would appear to be some attempt at de-escalation of the current tensions between the US and Iran, the immediate risk is that the Iran backed Iraqi militias take some form of unilateral action (in revenge for the death of Mahdi al-Muhandis), which re-escalates those tensions - hopefully Iran has sufficient control over those militias and along with the now seemingly ubiquitous behind the scenes influence of Russia. It should also be remembered, that previous Iranian 'revenge' attacks have often taken place in distant locations, and a long time after the original event. As but one example, in 2012, assassins (likely directed by Israel) killed an Iranian nuclear chemist. Iran promised revenge. But it was only a month later in Georgia, India and Thailand where Israeli diplomats were targeted with bombs.
a) Iran - https://content.yudu.com/web/400wi/0A400wk/June2018/html/index.html?page=6&origin=reader
b) The Ashes of the Arab Spring - https://content.yudu.com/web/400wi/0A400wk/JULYAUGUST2018/html/index.html?page=4&origin=reader
In terms of the post-Brexit negotiations between the UK and EU, Commission President von der Leyen's speech at the LSE yesterday underlined a couple of key points, which the EU has made on many a previous occasion, namely that it will be pretty much impossible to negotiate a deal with the UK by the end of 2020, given the colossal scope of what is needed, and that both sides should focus on areas that are not covered by wider international treaties, and it was not a case of 'all or nothing'. She also underlined that the EU would like to see a 'no tariffs, no quotas and no dumping' deal on goods trade, but in broader terms underlining that the more that the UK seeks to diverge in terms of standards and regulations, the higher will be the barriers as the EU must defend the integrity of the Single Market and Customs Union. The interesting point of additional emphasis was on financial services, where she said 'it is a matter of trade off and choices, and nothing will be as it was before, all will change, we have to accept that fact'. UK PM Johnson however stressed divergence, rejecting any kind of alignment with EU rules or any ECJ jurisdiction, and unsurprisingly playing to the gallery with talk about 'control' over immigration an UK fishing waters. At the end of the day, this is for the time being all about posturing rhetoric, what is important will be what is actually negotiated.
In terms of the overnight data, China's CPI was lower than forecast at an unchanged 4.5% y/y, with a modest easing in Food Price inflation to 17.4% y/y, offset in part by an uptick in Non-food prices to a still very subdued 1.3% y/y from 1.0%; the latter again underlines that core inflation remains very subdued, and per se gives the PBOC room to ease policy rates further. PPI dropped back from -0.1% y/y in November to -0.5%, but more adverse base effects from energy prices in H1 should see this edge back into positive territory. German Industrial Production posted its best m/m gain (1.1%) in 18 months, though remains in negative territory in y/y terms at at -2.6%, with a boost from construction (2.6% m/m) and manufacturing & mining (1.0% m/m), the latter perhaps a transient boost from the surge in auto demand due to the new emission rules that kicked in on 1 January. Trade data were soft, with Exports dropping a larger than expected 2.3% m/m, but this follows increases four of the 5 prior months, including 1.5% m/m in September & October and thus continues to suggest that the export demand is improving in trend terms. Last but not least, UK BRC Retail Sales were much better than expected in monthly terms at +1.7% y/y vs a forecast of -0.5% and November's dire -4.9% y/y, but as both month's readings were a function of Black Friday/Cyber Monday timing effects, the aggregated Nov/Dec decline of -1.5% y/y is rather more instructive in trend terms.
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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stopped out on both
excellent run
excellent run
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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C
cantagril
....and a very Good Day to your Hugeness
I reckon yr Dax 450 rez equates to c. 5940/50 area on the cac but I'm only 1 lot so I'll take what's on offer over the next couple of hours.
I think I was caffeine-light when I wrote the above but anyway I'm out at 6050 +20. Have to do other things for a while now - possibly some rowing......
Dentalfloss
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Mornin folks 🤪🤪😻😻💋💋💋💋💋
🤪🤪😻😻💋💋💋💋💋
