Dentalfloss
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lining up
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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C
cantagril
...you did indeed. 5550 is some kind of support...and I'm currently long there again TP...wait for it, wait for it: 5570
..and as for my EG longs _ stopped out +5
Dentalfloss
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luvin it
Dentalfloss
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stopped out
excellent stuff
excellent stuff
Dentalfloss
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EG got scrappy...you did indeed. 5550 is some kind of support...and I'm currently long there again TP...wait for it, wait for it: 5570
..and as for my EG longs _ stopped out +5
Dentalfloss
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.8600 the dog
Dentalfloss
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will our line hold..??
Dentalfloss
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nearly time for a visit to Pret/Guildford
C
cantagril
Variety is the spice of life eh?
C
cantagril
...you did indeed. 5550 is some kind of support...and I'm currently long there again TP...wait for it, wait for it: 5570
Stopped out -8.
Dunfiddlin for today.
Hasta!
Dentalfloss
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nope
Dentalfloss
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missed it.....lol
C
cantagril
Madainn mhath Laird
Dentalfloss
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Mornin folks 💋💋💋💋💋💋💋
Dentalfloss
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DOW into NFP
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 3 May 2019 - ADM ISI
- UK/US Services PMIs, US labour market and trade data, Turkish CPI
dominate data schedule; busy run of Fed speakers and corporate
earnings the other feature,; UK markets winding down early ahead
of long holiday weekend
- UK Services PMI: expected to recover modestly from March dive, but
likely to reinforce view that Q2 GDP likely to slow sharply from Q1
- US Payrolls: plenty of upside risks, not only predicated by ADP;
Unemployment Rate expected to be unchanged close to cyclical low
- US Average Hourly Earnings; seen reverting to new 'normal' 0.3% m/m,
set to edge higher in yr/yr terms
- US Goods Trade Balance: deficit seen widening modestly, focus on
implications for Q1 GDP revisions
- Charts / Table - UK Council election results; Fed rate probabilities
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
In days of yore, today's US labour market report was THE data event of the month, but over the past year, it has become all too evident that this is no longer the key event, with monthly activity data (above all Retail Sales) and CPI/PCE deflators carrying much greater weight. However there is also a goodly volume of other data and surveys on offer including the first batch of Services PMIs, US Goods Trade Balance & Wholesale Inventories, Eurozone CPI, and Turkish CPI and PPI. Central bank speakers are plentiful, above all no less than six Fed speakers, and there is another raft of corporate earnings, amongst which the following are likely to garner plenty of attention: Fiat Chrysler, HSBC, Societe Generale and Swiss Re in Europe, with Dish Network, Dominion Energy, Noble Energy and Virtu and TransCanada topping the run in the USA & Canada. For the UK, it will be a long holiday weekend, and there will be some focus on the relatively sharp losses (thus far) at the local elections yesterday for both major parties
** U.K./U.S.A. - April Services PMIs/ISM **
- While the Manufacturing surveys showed broad based weakness, the picture in Services has been consistently far more upbeat over the year to date, though with considerable divergence. Due to the May Day holiday, only the UK and USA report Services PMIs today, with the rest due next Monday. The UK Services PMI is seen recovering to 50.3 following a sharp drop to 48.9 in March, which was the worst reading since the collapse (and thereafter rebound) in July 2016 in the immediate aftermath of the referendum. The assumption is that there will be a boost from Easter related spending, though this would still leave the index well below the 53.2 average for the past 5 years, and would still signal that the sector remains under a cloud. It should also serve as a reminder that the unexpected strength in Q1 GDP will not hold through Q2, and that the BoE will after yesterday's upward revisions to its GDP forecasts for the next 3 years (2019 1.5% vs. prior 1.2%, 2002 1.6% vs. 1.5%, 2021 2.1% vs. 1.9%) probably have to downgrade these in August. Hence it is little surprise that markets chose to ignore those forecasts, and Carney's suggestion that markets were underestimating the BoE's likely rate path over the next 3 years. The fact that the BoE's track record on forecasting the economy has been so poor over the past decade probably played into that summary dismissal market reaction. As for the USA, the Services is seen unrevised from the flash reading at 52.8 (a near 3 year low), however the Non-manufacturing ISM is seen bouncing modestly from March's 19 month low of 56.1 to 57.0, moving back into the bottom end of the range (56.3 to 60.8) that had held since the start of 2018.
** U.S.A. - April labour data / March Trade Balance **
- The consensus is looking for a very' typical' (average) +190K for Payrolls, though following the much higher than expected ADP (256K) the "whisper" estimate on the Street is probably close to 210/220K, with the fact that April Payrolls are typically strong (10 year average final reading 236K) also suggesting some upside risks. The focus is however more likely to be on the Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings, with the former expected to be unchanged at 3.8%, just above the cyclical low of 3.7%. while Earnings are forecast to rise 0.3 m/m to edge the y/y rate up to 3.3%, just short of February's cyclical high of 3.4% y/y. While such a rise would not indicate significant wage pressures, it would still underline that the trend is very clearly higher for wages, and this in turn suggests that the next move in US rates is more likely to be higher, and following on from the less dovish than expected FOMC message on Wednesday, force a further market repricing of Fed rate probabilities, which now see a 50.3% chance of a December cut, vs. 66.0% ahead of the FOMC meeting. As for the Goods Trade Balance, this will be important in so far as it has implications for revisions to Q1 GDP, where it will be remembered there was a strong contribution from net exports to GDP, with the consensus looking for a modest widening to $-73.0 Bln from $-70.9 Bln in February.
| 08:41 (2 minutes ago) |
|
- UK/US Services PMIs, US labour market and trade data, Turkish CPI
dominate data schedule; busy run of Fed speakers and corporate
earnings the other feature,; UK markets winding down early ahead
of long holiday weekend
- UK Services PMI: expected to recover modestly from March dive, but
likely to reinforce view that Q2 GDP likely to slow sharply from Q1
- US Payrolls: plenty of upside risks, not only predicated by ADP;
Unemployment Rate expected to be unchanged close to cyclical low
- US Average Hourly Earnings; seen reverting to new 'normal' 0.3% m/m,
set to edge higher in yr/yr terms
- US Goods Trade Balance: deficit seen widening modestly, focus on
implications for Q1 GDP revisions
- Charts / Table - UK Council election results; Fed rate probabilities
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
In days of yore, today's US labour market report was THE data event of the month, but over the past year, it has become all too evident that this is no longer the key event, with monthly activity data (above all Retail Sales) and CPI/PCE deflators carrying much greater weight. However there is also a goodly volume of other data and surveys on offer including the first batch of Services PMIs, US Goods Trade Balance & Wholesale Inventories, Eurozone CPI, and Turkish CPI and PPI. Central bank speakers are plentiful, above all no less than six Fed speakers, and there is another raft of corporate earnings, amongst which the following are likely to garner plenty of attention: Fiat Chrysler, HSBC, Societe Generale and Swiss Re in Europe, with Dish Network, Dominion Energy, Noble Energy and Virtu and TransCanada topping the run in the USA & Canada. For the UK, it will be a long holiday weekend, and there will be some focus on the relatively sharp losses (thus far) at the local elections yesterday for both major parties
** U.K./U.S.A. - April Services PMIs/ISM **
- While the Manufacturing surveys showed broad based weakness, the picture in Services has been consistently far more upbeat over the year to date, though with considerable divergence. Due to the May Day holiday, only the UK and USA report Services PMIs today, with the rest due next Monday. The UK Services PMI is seen recovering to 50.3 following a sharp drop to 48.9 in March, which was the worst reading since the collapse (and thereafter rebound) in July 2016 in the immediate aftermath of the referendum. The assumption is that there will be a boost from Easter related spending, though this would still leave the index well below the 53.2 average for the past 5 years, and would still signal that the sector remains under a cloud. It should also serve as a reminder that the unexpected strength in Q1 GDP will not hold through Q2, and that the BoE will after yesterday's upward revisions to its GDP forecasts for the next 3 years (2019 1.5% vs. prior 1.2%, 2002 1.6% vs. 1.5%, 2021 2.1% vs. 1.9%) probably have to downgrade these in August. Hence it is little surprise that markets chose to ignore those forecasts, and Carney's suggestion that markets were underestimating the BoE's likely rate path over the next 3 years. The fact that the BoE's track record on forecasting the economy has been so poor over the past decade probably played into that summary dismissal market reaction. As for the USA, the Services is seen unrevised from the flash reading at 52.8 (a near 3 year low), however the Non-manufacturing ISM is seen bouncing modestly from March's 19 month low of 56.1 to 57.0, moving back into the bottom end of the range (56.3 to 60.8) that had held since the start of 2018.
** U.S.A. - April labour data / March Trade Balance **
- The consensus is looking for a very' typical' (average) +190K for Payrolls, though following the much higher than expected ADP (256K) the "whisper" estimate on the Street is probably close to 210/220K, with the fact that April Payrolls are typically strong (10 year average final reading 236K) also suggesting some upside risks. The focus is however more likely to be on the Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings, with the former expected to be unchanged at 3.8%, just above the cyclical low of 3.7%. while Earnings are forecast to rise 0.3 m/m to edge the y/y rate up to 3.3%, just short of February's cyclical high of 3.4% y/y. While such a rise would not indicate significant wage pressures, it would still underline that the trend is very clearly higher for wages, and this in turn suggests that the next move in US rates is more likely to be higher, and following on from the less dovish than expected FOMC message on Wednesday, force a further market repricing of Fed rate probabilities, which now see a 50.3% chance of a December cut, vs. 66.0% ahead of the FOMC meeting. As for the Goods Trade Balance, this will be important in so far as it has implications for revisions to Q1 GDP, where it will be remembered there was a strong contribution from net exports to GDP, with the consensus looking for a modest widening to $-73.0 Bln from $-70.9 Bln in February.
Dentalfloss
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DAX
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Naz in rez
