Trading with point and figure

lining up

262341
 
Hi there Skipper...
keep the trendlines as near as possible to the price
then look for horizontal brekout areas
you can do this quite easily on bar charts
 
WHY..???
its trying to assess who has control....bulls or bears
only need 2 points to draw a trendline
breakout points are easy to spot
 
US April 2019 Labour report: "Robust labour demand, Unemployment Rate at 50-yr low, Wage growth still modest"





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Ostwald, Marc
14:17 (39 minutes ago)

to Marc





US April 2019 Labour report: "Payrolls easily beat forecasts, Unemployment Rate at 50-yr low, Wage growth modest"

a) Payrolls / Establishment survey - That the risks were all on the upside for Payrolls was well flagged ahead of the data via way of the ADP and seasonal pattern for April, with headline Payrolls at 263K, and a modest net upward revision to the prior two months of 16K. Govt payrolls flattered the headline with a 27K rise, but that still left Private Payrolls up 236K, with Services (202K) the biggest contributor as would be expected, though a glance through the breakdown highlights a big 76K gain in Professional/business, as well as the more typical contributions from Leisure / Hospitality. As has been the case for a few months Manufacturing Payrolls posted a rather feeble +4K, which follows revised readings of 0K and 8K in prior months (both revised slightly up), thus echoing the softer profile of sector PMI & ISM surveys. Moving averages remain solid at 169K (3-mth) and 207K (6-mth), and labour demand remains robust.

b) Unemployment Rate / Household survey - The Unemployment Rate drop to 3.6% vs. forecast of 3.8% was flattered by a further 490K drop in the Workforce, with Unemployment down 387K and Employment dropping 103K, but the fact remains that this is a new cyclical low. Encouragingly the U-6 Underemployment Rate held at its cyclical low of 7.3%, though still not through the low of 1999 at 6.9%, per se suggesting that there remains a little bit more slack than one would anticipate with the headline jobless rate at its 50 year low. It is nevertheless likely to put some further pressure on markets to push back on Fed rate cut probabilities, at the time of writing down to 44% vs. 66% ahead of Wednesday's FOMC announcement.

c) Average Hourly Earnings / Weekly Hours - Average Hourly Earnings at 0.2% m/m for an unchanged 3.2% y/y were slightly below the 0.3%/3.3% consensus forecast, and thus sustaining the 3 and 6-month annualized rates at 3.2%. Wage pressures remain very well contained, though gradually (glacially? Ed.) improving. Real Wage growth will however drop in April, if the consensus forecasts of 2.1%y/y for both headline and core CPI (due next Friday) vs. March 1.9% and 2.0% are correct.

d) Market reaction - another labour report in which a clearly stronger than expected outturn generates only a very modest reaction, primarily the aforementioned dip in short-term rate futures prices, a slight recovery in US 10-yr Treasury yields, and a modest boost to the S&P 500 future, with major FX rates little changed, and WTI oil whipsawing.

..........................................................................

MARC OSTWALD
Global Strategist & Chief Economist

ADM Investor Services International Limited
A Subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company
 
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