Dentalfloss
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Cable
1.3350 lining up
1.3350 lining up
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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1.3340 might get dumped
Dentalfloss
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ftse and cac...whack
Dentalfloss
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trading the cac 40...gotta be able to talk the locals about something...lol
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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40 point dump on ftse
Dentalfloss
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Decent dump on Kak 40
Dentalfloss
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Busy day for data and events, though politics may still hold sway: UK
labour data, ZEW and US CPI top the agenda; Brexit parliament debate,
USA North Korea agreement and OPEC oil Market Report top events schedule
- UK labour data: core wages seen holding at 3-yr high, headline expected
to dip; Labour demand forecast to remain robust; keep an eye on
Claimant Count after April jump
- US CPI: around average m/m gain expected, base effects to push y/y rates
higher; core Services, auto prices, medical and housing key in terms of
core CPI
- Germany ZEW: current situation in focus, risk of downside miss following
run of sluggish data
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Once again it is a busy day for statistics, which could easily be steamrollered by events, above all political ones, with the focus on the USA/North Korea summit and a long day of Brexit debate in the UK parliament. But as yesterday's very poor run of UK Industrial Production, Construction Output and Trade data highlighted, the statistical schedule may not just be a footnote to the day's proceedings - which sees the overnight Japan Q2 BSI survey warming the seat for the UK labour market report, Germany's ZEW survey, US CPI and NFIB Small Business Optimism (weak, but this is very typical for this survey in Q2), and indeed Indian CPI & Industrial Production. It's a big day for commodity markets too with the publication of the monthly Oil Market Report (ahead of next week's OPEC meeting) and the UDSA's WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report. Last but not least, there are Govt Bond auctions in Finland (10-yr), Netherlands (6-yr) and the USA (1-month Bill & 30-yr), though it should be noted that this week's Eurozone supply (EUR 11.0 Bln) amounts to barely half the volume of redemptions (EUR 20.6 Bln Germany/Portugal). The OPEC Oil Market Report comes amid signs of an emerging rift within OPEC, with Iraqi Oil Minister Luaibi yesterday noting that producers "should not over exaggerate the need of the oil market for more oil supplies in the time being." He added "This could be misinterpreted by speculators and consumers, leading to a significant fall in oil prices and this is unacceptable to us", adding in a thinly veiled jibe at Saudi Arabia and Russia, that Iraq ""rejects unilateral decisions by some oil producers without consulting the rest of the members". The market sensitive, though economically worthless ZEW, is unsurprisingly expected to see a further drop in the Expectations Index to -14.0 vs. May -8.5, as ever mirroring the Dax (yawn! Ed.). Of more interest will be the Current Situation index, seen at 85.0 after a very marginal drip to 87.4 in May; recently rather sluggish German data, and rising trade tensions, suggest some downside risks.
** U.K. - April / May labour market report **
- Following on from yesterday's poor run of data, which cast considerable doubt on the BoE assumption that Q2 GDP will rebound to 0.4% q/q, attention turns to the labour market. Average Weekly Earnings are expected to dip in headline terms to 2.5% y/y from 2.6%, though the ex-Bonus is forecast to hold at a 3-yr high of 2.9%. Meanwhile the FLS Employment is forecast to revert to a solid 124K, after surging 197K in the prior report, with a wary eye also needing to be kept on the Claimant Count which posted a sharp 31.2K rise in April. Should this disappoint, then it appears that the BoE may be in danger of reprising its May non-rate hike debacle, i.e. 'rolling the pitch' for a rate hike in the months running up to the next inflation report (cf. Ramsden's comments last week), only to perform yet another hand brake turn in the period immediately prior to the meeting.
** U.S.A. - May CPI **
- As with many developed economies, adverse base effects are expected to drive CPI higher from 2.5% y/y to 2.8% in headline terms, and more modestly on core CPI to 2.2% from 2.1%; both are forecast to rise 0.2% m/m. Given that the Fed has emphasized that it will take a "symmetric" view on inflation, and that the core PCE Deflator is some 0.3 ppts below the equivalent CPI metric, the uptick is unlikely to be a major concern for the FOMC. Indeed a close eye needs to be kept in the core Services CPI excluding cellphone contracts (and rents), given that the rise in cellphone charges is primarily a base effect; but this may suffer a backlash on airfares, given that the 2.7% m/m fall in April was heavily out of line with Jet Fuel Prices, and may see some payback this month. Autos have been another very notable drag in recent months. There is some chatter that there may be some sign of import tariff pressures emerging, but if these do materialize, it will take some months to feed into CPI, though it should soon be evident in PPI.
From Marc Ostwald
labour data, ZEW and US CPI top the agenda; Brexit parliament debate,
USA North Korea agreement and OPEC oil Market Report top events schedule
- UK labour data: core wages seen holding at 3-yr high, headline expected
to dip; Labour demand forecast to remain robust; keep an eye on
Claimant Count after April jump
- US CPI: around average m/m gain expected, base effects to push y/y rates
higher; core Services, auto prices, medical and housing key in terms of
core CPI
- Germany ZEW: current situation in focus, risk of downside miss following
run of sluggish data
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Once again it is a busy day for statistics, which could easily be steamrollered by events, above all political ones, with the focus on the USA/North Korea summit and a long day of Brexit debate in the UK parliament. But as yesterday's very poor run of UK Industrial Production, Construction Output and Trade data highlighted, the statistical schedule may not just be a footnote to the day's proceedings - which sees the overnight Japan Q2 BSI survey warming the seat for the UK labour market report, Germany's ZEW survey, US CPI and NFIB Small Business Optimism (weak, but this is very typical for this survey in Q2), and indeed Indian CPI & Industrial Production. It's a big day for commodity markets too with the publication of the monthly Oil Market Report (ahead of next week's OPEC meeting) and the UDSA's WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report. Last but not least, there are Govt Bond auctions in Finland (10-yr), Netherlands (6-yr) and the USA (1-month Bill & 30-yr), though it should be noted that this week's Eurozone supply (EUR 11.0 Bln) amounts to barely half the volume of redemptions (EUR 20.6 Bln Germany/Portugal). The OPEC Oil Market Report comes amid signs of an emerging rift within OPEC, with Iraqi Oil Minister Luaibi yesterday noting that producers "should not over exaggerate the need of the oil market for more oil supplies in the time being." He added "This could be misinterpreted by speculators and consumers, leading to a significant fall in oil prices and this is unacceptable to us", adding in a thinly veiled jibe at Saudi Arabia and Russia, that Iraq ""rejects unilateral decisions by some oil producers without consulting the rest of the members". The market sensitive, though economically worthless ZEW, is unsurprisingly expected to see a further drop in the Expectations Index to -14.0 vs. May -8.5, as ever mirroring the Dax (yawn! Ed.). Of more interest will be the Current Situation index, seen at 85.0 after a very marginal drip to 87.4 in May; recently rather sluggish German data, and rising trade tensions, suggest some downside risks.
** U.K. - April / May labour market report **
- Following on from yesterday's poor run of data, which cast considerable doubt on the BoE assumption that Q2 GDP will rebound to 0.4% q/q, attention turns to the labour market. Average Weekly Earnings are expected to dip in headline terms to 2.5% y/y from 2.6%, though the ex-Bonus is forecast to hold at a 3-yr high of 2.9%. Meanwhile the FLS Employment is forecast to revert to a solid 124K, after surging 197K in the prior report, with a wary eye also needing to be kept on the Claimant Count which posted a sharp 31.2K rise in April. Should this disappoint, then it appears that the BoE may be in danger of reprising its May non-rate hike debacle, i.e. 'rolling the pitch' for a rate hike in the months running up to the next inflation report (cf. Ramsden's comments last week), only to perform yet another hand brake turn in the period immediately prior to the meeting.
** U.S.A. - May CPI **
- As with many developed economies, adverse base effects are expected to drive CPI higher from 2.5% y/y to 2.8% in headline terms, and more modestly on core CPI to 2.2% from 2.1%; both are forecast to rise 0.2% m/m. Given that the Fed has emphasized that it will take a "symmetric" view on inflation, and that the core PCE Deflator is some 0.3 ppts below the equivalent CPI metric, the uptick is unlikely to be a major concern for the FOMC. Indeed a close eye needs to be kept in the core Services CPI excluding cellphone contracts (and rents), given that the rise in cellphone charges is primarily a base effect; but this may suffer a backlash on airfares, given that the 2.7% m/m fall in April was heavily out of line with Jet Fuel Prices, and may see some payback this month. Autos have been another very notable drag in recent months. There is some chatter that there may be some sign of import tariff pressures emerging, but if these do materialize, it will take some months to feed into CPI, though it should soon be evident in PPI.
From Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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ftse...stops tight
Dentalfloss
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Aussi Le Cac 40
Dentalfloss
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Cable pumpin....dunno why
no complaints
no complaints
Dentalfloss
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Breaking news
Trump / Kim agree on testing nuclear weapons
North korea allowed to test nukes on Europe
Trump / Kim agree on testing nuclear weapons
North korea allowed to test nukes on Europe
Dentalfloss
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50 point dump on ftse...without the scalps
something wrong somewhere...no complaints
something wrong somewhere...no complaints
Dentalfloss
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our 7187...still a dog on Naz 100
excellent stuff
excellent stuff
C
cantagril
Morning!
You in foreign climes visiting one of your chateaux?
Coincidentally I've also been loking at trading the Cac. Stoxx is ok but I fnd that a lot of the time it does very little - which is not only unprofitable but worst of all, boring
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Dentalfloss
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our 7712 area holding the ftse
Dentalfloss
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Morning!
You in foreign climes visiting one of your chateaux?
Coincidentally I've also been loking at trading the Cac. Stoxx is ok but I fnd that a lot of the clime it does very little - which is not only unprofitable but worst of all, boring
back and forth...a little bit
Cac..not as nervous as dax
Dentalfloss
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cable
1.3400 lined up
1.3400 lined up
Dentalfloss
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maybe..??
Dentalfloss
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that pivot is 2780 area
