Dentalfloss
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finally...some movement downwards
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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finally...some movement downwards
Dentalfloss
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back into 25320
Postman rez area
Postman rez area
Dentalfloss
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Apple struggling to fill a gap
Dentalfloss
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dont know why gaps are so important....no trading took place in the gap
Atilla
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Dentalfloss
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gaps in pockets are for fumbling
Dentalfloss
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AAPL
191.00 lining up for a pump or dump
191.00 lining up for a pump or dump
Dentalfloss
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193.00 on aapl....poss blue screen crash
Atilla
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Have no idea what appl are doing at these levels. So yesterday.
Samsung have strong push for sales on their phones. Comp hotting up.
Sell sell sell the 1 trillion stock.
Dentalfloss
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Have no idea what appl are doing at these levels. So yesterday.
Samsung have strong push for sales on their phones. Comp hotting up.
Sell sell sell the 1 trillion stock.
you are now public enemy number 1 on US government list
far higher than Bonnie and Clyde.....Blasphemer...
Atilla
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Uncle Sam has no idea. When North Korea merges with South and Samsung start building factories in the North aapl will be hard pushed to compete.
Unless of course aapl locate in NK. Who knows
Dentalfloss
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Uncle Sam has no idea. When North Korea merges with South and Samsung start building factories in the North aapl will be hard pushed to compete.
Unless of course aapl locate in NK. Who knows
did not think of it that way....excellent stuff
Dentalfloss
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Dow into next week
still short term overbought and unsupported
vulnerable
still short term overbought and unsupported
vulnerable
Dentalfloss
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ditto SPX
Dentalfloss
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Dax and ftse will follow..if it corrects the overbought
Dentalfloss
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The Week Ahead Preview: 11 to 15 June 2018
There will be absolutely no shortage of macro events contending for markets' attention this week, be that the run of Fed, ECB and BoJ meetings, or a packed programme of first division inflation and activity data in the US, China and the UK. Eminently politics will continue to vie for top billing, above all the various trade tensions and the 'historic' summit between Trump and North Korea's Kim Jong Un. Last but not least there are monthly Oil Market Reports from OPEC and the IEA, and the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), and a whopping $183 Bln of US Bills and Coupon (Monday/Tuesday) auction to digest. As if that were not enough, the Football World Cup also kicks off in Russia on Thursday.
- Statistically, the US will focus on CPI, Retail Sales and Industrial Production. As with many developed economies, adverse base effects are expected to drive CPI higher from 2.5% y/y to 2.8% in headline terms, and more modestly on core CPI to 2.2% from 2.1%; both are forecast to rise 0.2% m/m. Retail Sales are also seen underlining that the sluggish profile of Personal Consumption in Q1 was transitory, even if Auto Sales remain sluggish, with headline seen up 0.4% m/m, ex-Autos 0.5% m/m and the core "control group" 0.4%. Industrial Production is forecast to post a relatively modest 0.3% m/m, with Manufacturing Output up just 0.2%, predicated on the 0.3% m/m dip in manufacturing hours, though following two very solid reports in March & April. Following on from the as expected CPI (1.8% y/y unch from April) and a further acceleration in PPI (4.1% y/y vs. April 3.4%), China's monthly activity data are predicted to see little change vs. April, with Retail Sales seen edging up to 9.6% y/y from 9.4%, while the consensus looks for Industrial Production and Fixed Assets Investment to be unchanged at 7.0% y/y. With even the more dovish members of the Bank of England's reverting to talking up the UK economy (albeit modestly, though seemingly rolling the pitch for an August rate hike), this week's UK data will be closely watched. But Average Weekly Earnings are expected to dip in headline terms to 2.5% y/y from 2.6%, though the ex-Bonus is forecast to hold at 2.9%, while Employment is forecast to revert to a solid 124K, after surging 197K in the prior report (a wary eye also needs to be kept on the Claimant Count which posted a sharp 31.2K rise in April). Wednesday brings the full gamut of UK inflation indicators with headline and core CPI seen unchanged at 2.4% and 2.1% y/y respectively, while further energy and commodity related pressure is expected to materialize in both Input and Output PPI, though the latter will, if forecasts are correct, still remain subdued at 2.9%. After an Easter related jump (1.4% m/m), Retail Sales are forecast to a more modest, though still healthy 0.5% m/m rise, which thanks to base effects would push the y/y rate up to a respectable 2.4% from 1.4%. Japan kicks off the week with its volatile but key Private Machinery Orders, which are seen rebounding 2.4% m/m after an unexpectedly sharp 3.9% m/m drop in March; the Tertiary Industry (services) Index. PPI and the Q2 BSI survey are also scheduled. Australia looks to its labour data, which should confirm continued steady labour demand (Employment +19K), but little sign of any emergent wage pressures. Last but not least CPI is due in both Norway and Sweden, and both headline and core measures are forecast to edge higher, though as previously observed, the respective central banks are not quite on the same page of the book in in terms of the conclusions they are drawing in terms of when an initial rate hike might occur.
- Markets have long discounted a Fed rate hike at this month's meeting, even if there was a wobble in mid-May. The key questions are, will there be any notable shifts in the "dot plot", and will Powell's press conference perhaps hint that the 'dot plot' may be dropped, given that many FOMC members clearly do not like it, and soon to be NY Fed chief Williams has signalled that the FOMC needs to change its communication strategy. As importantly, will there be any shifts in its economic forecasts, which should in theory be little more than modest tweaks (for a summary of the March projections - see: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20180321.htm ). Eminently the question then will be what risks related to the numerous trade tensions, and will the Fed offer any signal on how it might respond (probably not is the answer). Last but not least how does the FOMC see financial conditions, to which it is far more sensitive than it freely admits, even if there are no immediate points of concern. The ECB meeting is probably the more heavily anticipated of the two meetings, and sources and some council members have signalled that there will be a discussion on whether to announce how and when it will end its QE programme, which if it does, will almost certainly be accompanied by endless references to how it continue to reinvest its existing QE portfolio. Inevitably the new Italian govt and its budget proposals will engender a long list of questions, many of which will probably be dodged outside of a reiteration of the ECB and Eurozone 'rules of engagement'. There will be a fresh set of forecasts, which sources have indicated will see CPI forecasts revised higher, but GDP forecasts revised lower, and in respect of the latter, much attention will be given to whether the council remains relatively confident that the Q1 setback in France and Germany prove to be largely transitory. The other key element will be what signals the council offer on how it plans to deal with the EUR 432 bln LTRO that expires in September (and will likely see some bank repayments starting in July), above all from the aspect that a simple rollover of that operation is not an option, given that would tie the ECB's hands on policy for a protracted period. This week's BoJ meeting is probably viewed by most market participants as a quasi non-event, with no changes expected to any of its policy measures, and Kuroda likely to underline that with inflation still very subdued, it is much too early to even vaguely consider an exit from its QE programme. That said, it will be interesting to see if the BoJ shows any sign of concern that recent economic data has suggested the economy is losing considerable momentum. In the EM space, there are policy meetings in Argentina, Chile, Croatia, Georgia, Namibia, Russia and Uganda, all of which are expected to see policy rates left unchanged, though it will be particularly interesting to see what Bank Rossi governor Nabiullina offers on the economic and policy outlook, now that the dust is starting to settle after the RUB drop following the imposition of sanctions.
..........................................................................
Marc Ostwald
Strategist
ADM Investor Services International
There will be absolutely no shortage of macro events contending for markets' attention this week, be that the run of Fed, ECB and BoJ meetings, or a packed programme of first division inflation and activity data in the US, China and the UK. Eminently politics will continue to vie for top billing, above all the various trade tensions and the 'historic' summit between Trump and North Korea's Kim Jong Un. Last but not least there are monthly Oil Market Reports from OPEC and the IEA, and the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), and a whopping $183 Bln of US Bills and Coupon (Monday/Tuesday) auction to digest. As if that were not enough, the Football World Cup also kicks off in Russia on Thursday.
- Statistically, the US will focus on CPI, Retail Sales and Industrial Production. As with many developed economies, adverse base effects are expected to drive CPI higher from 2.5% y/y to 2.8% in headline terms, and more modestly on core CPI to 2.2% from 2.1%; both are forecast to rise 0.2% m/m. Retail Sales are also seen underlining that the sluggish profile of Personal Consumption in Q1 was transitory, even if Auto Sales remain sluggish, with headline seen up 0.4% m/m, ex-Autos 0.5% m/m and the core "control group" 0.4%. Industrial Production is forecast to post a relatively modest 0.3% m/m, with Manufacturing Output up just 0.2%, predicated on the 0.3% m/m dip in manufacturing hours, though following two very solid reports in March & April. Following on from the as expected CPI (1.8% y/y unch from April) and a further acceleration in PPI (4.1% y/y vs. April 3.4%), China's monthly activity data are predicted to see little change vs. April, with Retail Sales seen edging up to 9.6% y/y from 9.4%, while the consensus looks for Industrial Production and Fixed Assets Investment to be unchanged at 7.0% y/y. With even the more dovish members of the Bank of England's reverting to talking up the UK economy (albeit modestly, though seemingly rolling the pitch for an August rate hike), this week's UK data will be closely watched. But Average Weekly Earnings are expected to dip in headline terms to 2.5% y/y from 2.6%, though the ex-Bonus is forecast to hold at 2.9%, while Employment is forecast to revert to a solid 124K, after surging 197K in the prior report (a wary eye also needs to be kept on the Claimant Count which posted a sharp 31.2K rise in April). Wednesday brings the full gamut of UK inflation indicators with headline and core CPI seen unchanged at 2.4% and 2.1% y/y respectively, while further energy and commodity related pressure is expected to materialize in both Input and Output PPI, though the latter will, if forecasts are correct, still remain subdued at 2.9%. After an Easter related jump (1.4% m/m), Retail Sales are forecast to a more modest, though still healthy 0.5% m/m rise, which thanks to base effects would push the y/y rate up to a respectable 2.4% from 1.4%. Japan kicks off the week with its volatile but key Private Machinery Orders, which are seen rebounding 2.4% m/m after an unexpectedly sharp 3.9% m/m drop in March; the Tertiary Industry (services) Index. PPI and the Q2 BSI survey are also scheduled. Australia looks to its labour data, which should confirm continued steady labour demand (Employment +19K), but little sign of any emergent wage pressures. Last but not least CPI is due in both Norway and Sweden, and both headline and core measures are forecast to edge higher, though as previously observed, the respective central banks are not quite on the same page of the book in in terms of the conclusions they are drawing in terms of when an initial rate hike might occur.
- Markets have long discounted a Fed rate hike at this month's meeting, even if there was a wobble in mid-May. The key questions are, will there be any notable shifts in the "dot plot", and will Powell's press conference perhaps hint that the 'dot plot' may be dropped, given that many FOMC members clearly do not like it, and soon to be NY Fed chief Williams has signalled that the FOMC needs to change its communication strategy. As importantly, will there be any shifts in its economic forecasts, which should in theory be little more than modest tweaks (for a summary of the March projections - see: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20180321.htm ). Eminently the question then will be what risks related to the numerous trade tensions, and will the Fed offer any signal on how it might respond (probably not is the answer). Last but not least how does the FOMC see financial conditions, to which it is far more sensitive than it freely admits, even if there are no immediate points of concern. The ECB meeting is probably the more heavily anticipated of the two meetings, and sources and some council members have signalled that there will be a discussion on whether to announce how and when it will end its QE programme, which if it does, will almost certainly be accompanied by endless references to how it continue to reinvest its existing QE portfolio. Inevitably the new Italian govt and its budget proposals will engender a long list of questions, many of which will probably be dodged outside of a reiteration of the ECB and Eurozone 'rules of engagement'. There will be a fresh set of forecasts, which sources have indicated will see CPI forecasts revised higher, but GDP forecasts revised lower, and in respect of the latter, much attention will be given to whether the council remains relatively confident that the Q1 setback in France and Germany prove to be largely transitory. The other key element will be what signals the council offer on how it plans to deal with the EUR 432 bln LTRO that expires in September (and will likely see some bank repayments starting in July), above all from the aspect that a simple rollover of that operation is not an option, given that would tie the ECB's hands on policy for a protracted period. This week's BoJ meeting is probably viewed by most market participants as a quasi non-event, with no changes expected to any of its policy measures, and Kuroda likely to underline that with inflation still very subdued, it is much too early to even vaguely consider an exit from its QE programme. That said, it will be interesting to see if the BoJ shows any sign of concern that recent economic data has suggested the economy is losing considerable momentum. In the EM space, there are policy meetings in Argentina, Chile, Croatia, Georgia, Namibia, Russia and Uganda, all of which are expected to see policy rates left unchanged, though it will be particularly interesting to see what Bank Rossi governor Nabiullina offers on the economic and policy outlook, now that the dust is starting to settle after the RUB drop following the imposition of sanctions.
..........................................................................
Marc Ostwald
Strategist
ADM Investor Services International
Dentalfloss
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mornin folks
Dentalfloss
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Naz 100
Dentalfloss
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Naz
last week we marked the unsupported break
it pulled back into our 50% area...shedloads there
its still a tad overbought
last week we marked the unsupported break
it pulled back into our 50% area...shedloads there
its still a tad overbought
Dentalfloss
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Uncle Sam has no idea. When North Korea merges with South and Samsung start building factories in the North aapl will be hard pushed to compete.
Unless of course aapl locate in NK. Who knows
Apple...has now got winning tech
Nostril recognition
stick the phone up your nose and it will unlock
