Dentalfloss
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that is a quick guide...if price stays above trenndline....then bulls in
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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cable
bulls in...just
bulls in...just
Dentalfloss
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cable
Dentalfloss
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vertivcal drop on cable=oversold
Dentalfloss
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difficult..we dont know if its a dead cat bounce or a new uptrend
Dentalfloss
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in supp area now
1.3320 area..if ya can get it
1.3320 area..if ya can get it
Dentalfloss
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ftse
Dentalfloss
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Dow...tricky
Dentalfloss
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ftse
whacked
Dentalfloss
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cable in our 1.3320 supp area now
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- All eyes on the Fed, but UK inflation run, US PPI and IEA Oil market
report to offer plenty distractions from the FOMC vigil
- UK CPI: food and energy to exercise upward pressure, non-food goods
prices to drag, air fares a wild card
- UK PPI: energy and commodity prices to pressure Input prices, but pass
through to Output seen remaining modest
- US PPI: energy prices something of a wild card, focus on signs of
energy related pass through, and indeed pre-emptive tariff related
price hikes
- Fed: rate hike discounted, initial focus on 'dot plot' and forecasts,
likely to drop reference to policy remaining 'accommodative', some chatter
about shifting to press conference after each meeting
- Charts: Fed Funds rate vs. GS Financial Conditions, Fed rate hike
probabilities by meeting
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
While today brings the gamut of UK inflation data and US PPI, there is little doubt that the focal point will be the FOMC meeting, with the only other item of note being the IEA's monthly Oil Market Report, which follows yesterday's very cautious OPEC report, which appeared to suggest that any lifting of production curbs will be rather modest, and indeed after an unexpected cut in the EIA's estimate of US 2018 oil production, which runs counter to current market 'fears'. Government bond supply comes via way of EUR 5.75 Bln of multi-maturity Italian BTPs and a very small EUR 2.0 Bln of 10-yr German Bunds. On the political front, UK PM May has staved off any backbench rebellion on Brexit legislation for the time being. Perhaps most ironic, though is that the new Italian government appears to be going out of its way to appease the German government, with EU affairs minister Savona going out of his way to compliment Germany and describe the EUR as 'indispensable', while the meeting between German Finance Minister Scholz and his counterpart Tria was inordinately harmonious, and yet France and Italy are now mired in very acrimonious exchanges in regard of Salvini's handling of the Aquarius NGO refugee boat. It probably reflects a deeper underlying area of tension, in so far as there has been a lot of actual and mooted M&A activity (banking, energy, infrastructure, defence), with both sides very concerned that the other does not get the upper hand in economic and corporate terms. Eminently Trump's antics remain front and central ('a clear and present danger'? Ed.), with the publicity machine around the North Korea 'agreement' operating at full tilt, even though a closer look reveals to be full of very vague and unspecific language, which advise caution in assuming that peace has finally descended on the Korean peninsula.
** U.K. - May CPI, RPI, PPI **
- While yesterday's labour data were good in terms of labour demand, the fact is that the pick-up in Average Weekly Earnings appears to have already stalled, which by extension means that the burden in terms of a hoped for rise in real earnings falls more heavily on a drop in CPI. However headline and core CPI are both expected to be unchanged at 2.4% and 2.1% y/y respectively, while further energy and commodity related pressure is expected to materialize in both Input and Output PPI, though the latter will, if forecasts are correct, still remain subdued at 2.9%. If the pointers from the BRC Shop Price Index are correct, then food (partly sugar tax related) along with petrol prices are likely to be the main upward sources of pressures, while non-food goods prices will exercise considerable downward pressure. Air Fares could as ever be a wild card, with the timing of Easter relative to the May Bank holidays suggest rather less of a post Easter dip than was seen in 2017, though personal experience suggests that there was quite a lot of discounting seen in the budget airline sector.
** U.S.A. - May PPI / FOMC meeting **
- The primary point of interest in the PPI data is whether there are signs that trade tariffs are exercising any upward pressure, though this would be anticipatory, given that the exemptions for NAFTA and EU countries only lapsed on 1 June. That said, a broad array of surveys including yesterday's NFIB Small Business Optimism indicate that a relatively high proportion of businesses are raising prices, or at the very least intend to. Energy prices could be something of a wildcard, given that prior to the steep end of month fall, oil prices had risen quite sharply relative to end of April levels. Be that as it may, this report will have to spring a fairly large surprise to distract from the pre-FOMC vigil. Markets have long discounted a Fed rate hike at this month's meeting, even if there was a wobble in mid-May. The key questions are, will there be any notable shifts in the "dot plot", and will the statement and/or Powell's press conference follow up on NY Fed chief Williams signal that the FOMC needs to change its communication strategy. Most likely it will drop the long held statement that policy will remain 'accommodative', and that rather say the current policy tightening cycle will aim to get the policy rate to the consensus neutral rate (currently 2.75%-3.0%, i.e. 100 bps higher than where rates fill be after today's hike). While there are a number of policymakers who believe that policy needs to be 'restrictive', it would be overly hawkish to signal that at this juncture. They could perhaps also hint that the 'dot plot' may be dropped, given that many FOMC members clearly do not like it, though if the FOMC is to offer less 'guidance' going forward, it may well be retained just to give markets a rough orientation point. There remains persistent chatter that Powell would like to move to holding a press conference after each meeting, which could be more easily facilitated in the broader context of a change in the Fed's communications strategy, rather than as a stand-alone change, which markets might well interpret as opening the possibility of a faster pace of rate hikes. Just as importantly, will there be any shifts in its economic forecasts, which should in theory be little more than relatively modest tweaks (for a summary of the March projections - see: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20180321.htm ), most likely on its Unemployment forecasts, perhaps near term inflation expectations. Eminently the question then will be what risks related to the numerous trade tensions does it see, and will the Fed offer any signal on how it might respond (probably not is the answer). Last but not least how does the FOMC see financial conditions, to which it is far more sensitive than it freely admits, even if there are no immediate points of concern (a chart comparing GS Financial Conditions Index vs. the Upper bound of the Fed Funds target range is attached).
from Marc Ostwald
report to offer plenty distractions from the FOMC vigil
- UK CPI: food and energy to exercise upward pressure, non-food goods
prices to drag, air fares a wild card
- UK PPI: energy and commodity prices to pressure Input prices, but pass
through to Output seen remaining modest
- US PPI: energy prices something of a wild card, focus on signs of
energy related pass through, and indeed pre-emptive tariff related
price hikes
- Fed: rate hike discounted, initial focus on 'dot plot' and forecasts,
likely to drop reference to policy remaining 'accommodative', some chatter
about shifting to press conference after each meeting
- Charts: Fed Funds rate vs. GS Financial Conditions, Fed rate hike
probabilities by meeting
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
While today brings the gamut of UK inflation data and US PPI, there is little doubt that the focal point will be the FOMC meeting, with the only other item of note being the IEA's monthly Oil Market Report, which follows yesterday's very cautious OPEC report, which appeared to suggest that any lifting of production curbs will be rather modest, and indeed after an unexpected cut in the EIA's estimate of US 2018 oil production, which runs counter to current market 'fears'. Government bond supply comes via way of EUR 5.75 Bln of multi-maturity Italian BTPs and a very small EUR 2.0 Bln of 10-yr German Bunds. On the political front, UK PM May has staved off any backbench rebellion on Brexit legislation for the time being. Perhaps most ironic, though is that the new Italian government appears to be going out of its way to appease the German government, with EU affairs minister Savona going out of his way to compliment Germany and describe the EUR as 'indispensable', while the meeting between German Finance Minister Scholz and his counterpart Tria was inordinately harmonious, and yet France and Italy are now mired in very acrimonious exchanges in regard of Salvini's handling of the Aquarius NGO refugee boat. It probably reflects a deeper underlying area of tension, in so far as there has been a lot of actual and mooted M&A activity (banking, energy, infrastructure, defence), with both sides very concerned that the other does not get the upper hand in economic and corporate terms. Eminently Trump's antics remain front and central ('a clear and present danger'? Ed.), with the publicity machine around the North Korea 'agreement' operating at full tilt, even though a closer look reveals to be full of very vague and unspecific language, which advise caution in assuming that peace has finally descended on the Korean peninsula.
** U.K. - May CPI, RPI, PPI **
- While yesterday's labour data were good in terms of labour demand, the fact is that the pick-up in Average Weekly Earnings appears to have already stalled, which by extension means that the burden in terms of a hoped for rise in real earnings falls more heavily on a drop in CPI. However headline and core CPI are both expected to be unchanged at 2.4% and 2.1% y/y respectively, while further energy and commodity related pressure is expected to materialize in both Input and Output PPI, though the latter will, if forecasts are correct, still remain subdued at 2.9%. If the pointers from the BRC Shop Price Index are correct, then food (partly sugar tax related) along with petrol prices are likely to be the main upward sources of pressures, while non-food goods prices will exercise considerable downward pressure. Air Fares could as ever be a wild card, with the timing of Easter relative to the May Bank holidays suggest rather less of a post Easter dip than was seen in 2017, though personal experience suggests that there was quite a lot of discounting seen in the budget airline sector.
** U.S.A. - May PPI / FOMC meeting **
- The primary point of interest in the PPI data is whether there are signs that trade tariffs are exercising any upward pressure, though this would be anticipatory, given that the exemptions for NAFTA and EU countries only lapsed on 1 June. That said, a broad array of surveys including yesterday's NFIB Small Business Optimism indicate that a relatively high proportion of businesses are raising prices, or at the very least intend to. Energy prices could be something of a wildcard, given that prior to the steep end of month fall, oil prices had risen quite sharply relative to end of April levels. Be that as it may, this report will have to spring a fairly large surprise to distract from the pre-FOMC vigil. Markets have long discounted a Fed rate hike at this month's meeting, even if there was a wobble in mid-May. The key questions are, will there be any notable shifts in the "dot plot", and will the statement and/or Powell's press conference follow up on NY Fed chief Williams signal that the FOMC needs to change its communication strategy. Most likely it will drop the long held statement that policy will remain 'accommodative', and that rather say the current policy tightening cycle will aim to get the policy rate to the consensus neutral rate (currently 2.75%-3.0%, i.e. 100 bps higher than where rates fill be after today's hike). While there are a number of policymakers who believe that policy needs to be 'restrictive', it would be overly hawkish to signal that at this juncture. They could perhaps also hint that the 'dot plot' may be dropped, given that many FOMC members clearly do not like it, though if the FOMC is to offer less 'guidance' going forward, it may well be retained just to give markets a rough orientation point. There remains persistent chatter that Powell would like to move to holding a press conference after each meeting, which could be more easily facilitated in the broader context of a change in the Fed's communications strategy, rather than as a stand-alone change, which markets might well interpret as opening the possibility of a faster pace of rate hikes. Just as importantly, will there be any shifts in its economic forecasts, which should in theory be little more than relatively modest tweaks (for a summary of the March projections - see: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20180321.htm ), most likely on its Unemployment forecasts, perhaps near term inflation expectations. Eminently the question then will be what risks related to the numerous trade tensions does it see, and will the Fed offer any signal on how it might respond (probably not is the answer). Last but not least how does the FOMC see financial conditions, to which it is far more sensitive than it freely admits, even if there are no immediate points of concern (a chart comparing GS Financial Conditions Index vs. the Upper bound of the Fed Funds target range is attached).
from Marc Ostwald
C
cantagril
C
cantagril
Dentalfloss
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Before or after FOMC..??
C
cantagril
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Did you notice the bottle
lone stock trader has put his handle on the bottle
really cool
Atilla.....can you do us some photoshopping ..??
lone stock trader has put his handle on the bottle
really cool
Atilla.....can you do us some photoshopping ..??
C
cantagril
Didn't notice this - caffeine deficiency no doubt.
Since you're jaunting across the ditch in a fairly regular manner. Look at getting your own labels put on wine from a local vineyard. ....or alternatively just ask for unlabelled bottles and put your own on. You can get a bottle label template on the net for inkjet printing self adhesive ones.
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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love to see people"s faces when i serve up the cheap stuff....lol
