Trading with point and figure

[Dentalfloss]

25350 might hold it
ditto 2750 on spx

2753 ...and dump

 

[Dentalfloss]

2753 ...and dump

pivotalpivots/Jeff Yorke had WR1 at 2750....so was ready for a Dow dump
thought it would be 25350....had to wait a bit

 

[Dentalfloss]

25350 might hold it
ditto 2750 on spx

2754.5 hit one hour later

 

[Dentalfloss]

DOW updated

hardly got thru our 25500 rez

 

[Dentalfloss]

DAX into the open

12500 area is a dog

As we said premarket

 

[Dentalfloss]

DAX into the open
could go either way
bulls need to bust thru that rez

 

[Dentalfloss]

DOW
Stockcharts have some sort of top in place.....maybe..??

 

[Dentalfloss]

Cable

 

[Dentalfloss]

eurusd ....fake
now back in supp for a rethink

 

[Dentalfloss]

Canta

EG....not lookin too happy
better get that cheese and choco in

 

[cantagril]

Hence my interest in hedging

The L/T isn't looking that rosy but I'm still uncomfortable going outright short atm. I think that we could well be approaching a clear out but that a ramp up to .90 beforehand is a distinct possibility.

Anyway, I'll continue messing about with GBPCHF and those spikes for a while and see what emerges....even if it isn't much of a profit:whistling

 

[Dentalfloss]

https://t.co/lzWNIfp87c?amp=1

Jason Leavitt weekly

 

[Dentalfloss]

Mornin folks

 

[Dentalfloss]

12500 area still a dog

 

[Dentalfloss]

dow

 

[Dentalfloss]

dax

 

[Dentalfloss]

dow and dax supports in sight/trend supports marked
could be a quiet day/US holiday

 

[Dentalfloss]

- Very quiet start to the week thanks to Asia, North America holidays;
digesting Japan Trade & Tankan, UK Rightmove House Prices & Household
Finance index; awaiting Euro group decision on new ECB V-P and Brazil
Q4 GDP

- Week Ahead: very modest schedule of data dominated by surveys, US
Existing Home Sales; Oz Wages; Canada, Mexico & Sweden CPI

- Week Ahead: FOMC minutes and Fed speak, BoE testimony on Q1 Inflation
Report

- Week Ahead: take up of deluge of US short-dated govt supply in focus

- Charts: USD FX performance vs various currencies, Japan Tankan, VIX
longs vs shorts, S&P500 sector performance

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

It is likely to be a very subdued start to trading, given the holidays in Asia, USA and Canada, and unsurprisingly the data and events schedule is very thin on highlights. There are the Japanese Trade and monthly Tankan, along with UK Rightmove House Prices and Markit Household Finance Index to digest, while ahead lies a regular Euro group meeting (which should decide on the next ECB vice president) and Q4 GDP from Brazil. For all the headlines about last week's rebound in equities, which may or may not prove durable, the big story for this week is how well the $258 Bln total of Treasury Bill and Notes is absorbed, much of which is in 2-yr or shorter maturity paper ($152 Bln in 1, 3 & 6-mth Bills, $28 Bln 2-yr Note (Tuesday) & $15 Bln in 2-yr FRN (Wednesday). Last week's Bill supply was taken up well, and the speculative community is clearly enjoying (for the time being) the arbitrage/carry opportunities vs Eurodollars, OIS and Repo, but whether this can be sustained if Fed rate expectations become more volatile. That said this high volume of issuance will probably start to 'crowd out' investments elsewhere.

RECAP: The Week Ahead - preview (updated):

A casual glance over the data and events diary for the coming week suggests a rather meagre schedule in terms of outright 'market movers', above all due to an absence of major US data, though there are a number of Fed speakers and the January FOMC minutes. As is typical for this week of the month, there are numerous surveys, and inflation and wages prints in a number of G20 countries. Holidays via way of US Presidents' Day (Monday) and China's closure for the Lunar New year / Spring Festival will thin activity, while oil markets will be looking to the final monthly oil market report from the EIA. Politics remains good for the odd 'spanner in the works headline - be that that Brexit or German coalition related, or legislative impasse, sanctions or 2016 election related in the USA. The US tops the government bond auction schedule, while Europe and Asia offer more in the way of corporate earnings highlights than the USA.

* Statistically the only major US data point is Existing Home Sales, while UK Average Weekly Earnings will be watched closely in the UK, though the forecast is for no change from 2.5% y/y headline and 2.4% ex-Bonus; the detailed breakdown of UK Q4 GDP and PSNB (budget) are also on hand. Japan is expected to see an energy lead rise in headline CPI to a 3-yr high of 1.3%, but core measures are seen little changed, with the latest Trade data also due. G7 'flash' PMIs and Germany's Ifo form part of a busy schedule of surveys in the Eurozone and the UK. Following from RBA's Lowe nailing his policy neutral colours to the post by putting a target of 3.5% y/y for Wage growth in Australia, the consensus forecast assume that the Q4 Wages data at an unchanged 2.0% y/y will not be prompting a rethink on the RBA policy outlook. CPI is also due in Canada, Sweden and Mexico.

* Central Banks: In the wake of rather mixed UK data, and a perhaps overly hawkish market interpretation of the BoE's February Inflation Report and policy meeting, Carney & Co testify to the Treasury Select Committee. The FOMC minutes are unlikely to dispel or even dent the view that the Fed will likely hikes rates again in March, the key point of interest will probably be the discussion around the growth and inflation outlook, as well as the committee's view on financial conditions. A rash of Fed speakers appear likely to convey little concern about the equity markets' swoon, though it will be interesting to note whether the hardcore minority that have repeatedly voice concerns about low inflation indicate any shift in their views, above all given last week's run of 'across the board', higher than expected inflation data. In the EM space, only Guatemala and Paraguay see policy rate meetings.

* Politically: there is UK PM May's 'Road to Brexit' speech to digest, once again underlining that such 'keynote' speeches have proven to be generally very underwhelming. The infighting in both of Germany's grand coalition parties continues to suggest that the long held principle of 'Ordnungspolitik' has been handed a large hospital pass, and begs the question of the longevity of the prospective coalition government. The US meanwhile awaits news on a fresh round of mooted trade sanctions in the raw materials area, most sensitively steel, as well as the seemingly endless scandals and investigations surrounding the Trump regime, which continue to offer a feeding frenzy of fake news, often misguided speculation and often a level of insensitivity that beggars belief.

* Corporate Earnings: Monday features BHP Billiton & Reckitt Benckiser, while Tuesday has HSBC, Medtronic in Europe and Duke Energy, Home Depot, Noble Energy & Walmart in the USA. Wednesday brings reports from Accor, Glencore, Iberdrola, Lloyds Bank & Orange, and across the pond Avis Budget and DISH Network, and Thursday's busy schedule looks to Anglo American, AXA, Barclays, Centrica, Deutsche Telekom, Saint-Gobain, Telefonica & Valeo, with the US seeing Chesapeake Energy, Equifax, Herbalife, Hewlett Packard, Newmont Mining. Friday's has RBS & Swiss Re in Europe, while RBC gets Canada's banking earnings season under way.


from Marc Ostwald

 

[Dentalfloss]

dax

testing our support

 

[Dentalfloss]

usdjpy
our pivot finally broke....will it be rez..??