Trading with point and figure

cable
comin into rez

hu5dma.png
 
cantagril said:
Morning all,

After yesterday's experiment, I'm going to have another crack at the same thing, just 1 lot. I'll have a look at the RS thing over the w/e.

Anyway, EG: now long at .8870. Chart a bit bearish short term but I see there's still room for another crack at .89+. No doubt I'll get a hiding when the numbers come out at 9h30:)

Got a buy order in on GBPCHF at 1.2988 - touched but didn't get a fill because of the crap spread....
Click to expand...

gbp has some strength
yu can get 2 bars of Swiss choco with it
 
President's
Day holiday on Monday: UK Retail Sales, US Housing Starts and Import
Prices top modest data run; ECB Coeure speaks & Munich Security
Conference

- UK Retail Sales: dead cat bounce expected from December slide, anecdotal
evidence implies some downside risks, but notoriously volatile at this
time of the year

- US Housing Starts seen rebounding from December setback, weather a
potential headwind; Permits underline continued boost from post
hurricane rebuilding

- Charts: US 10-yr yield, US/German & US/Japan 10 yr yield spreads, US
IG and HY bond OAS yield spread, JPM EMBI yield spread; China and
Japan US Treasury holdings; Lipper Global Fund flows overview


..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

The week ends on something of a whimper in statistical terms with UK Retail Sales accompanied by US Housing Starts & Import Prices and Canadian Manufacturing Sales. On the events side of the equation, there is central bank speak from RBA's Lowe (resolutely neutral) and ECB's Coeure, while the annual Munich Security Conference gets under way, with UK PM May set to make her 'road to Brexit' speech in Munich tomorrow. With China and much of Asia closed for the Lunar New Year holidays, and the US closed for Presidents' Day on Monday, a semblance of calm and lower volatility (and low volumes) is likely to descend on financial markets, though it would be unwise to assume that this is the low volume/volatility regime of recent years reasserting itself. That said next week's data schedule is quite modest, a mix of UK labour data, flash PMIs and other surveys and Japanese CPI in statistical terms, accompanied by January FOMC minutes and rather more in the way of Fed, ECB and BoE speakers. The other talking point for the day will be the various data that has been published overnight on fund flows: a) the US TIC data saw the Japanese continue to be net sellers of Treasuries (anecdotal evidence says they have been reallocating to Eurozone) and a pick-up in Chinese purchases (not surprising given the large Trade surpluses and the accompanying rise in FX reserves), b) the more timely weekly Japanese data saw another hefty outflow (just short of JPY 1.0 Trln) of money from foreign bonds (again echoing TIC data), and c) the Lipper Fund flows saw the second biggest weekly outflow from high yield bond funds at $-6.31 Bln, as well as hefty outflows from Stock ETFs, but notably the outflow from Investment Grade bond funds was modest, and flows to EM bond and stock funds were positive. The latter is unsurprising given the weakness of the USD means that the "carry" in EM remains a positive. Last but not least Japan Finance Minister attempted to jawbone the JPY back down, but given the size of the JPY net short (as per chart of CFTC net positioning), this looks to be a losing battle without some actual measures to counter the move.

** U.K. - January Retail Sales **
- The seasonally very volatile UK Retail Sales are projected to recover modestly from December's unexpectedly sharp -1.5% m/m with a rise of 0.4% m/m, though as with the USA retail data, there may still be some 'mean reversion' overhang from the Black Friday / Cyber Monday surge in November. Indeed the usual point that the 3-mth / 3-mth rate is a better indicator of trend (last 0.4% q/q) holds even more validity given that this series is notoriously choppy around the turn of the year.

** U.S.A. - January Housing Starts **
- Talking about very volatile series, Housing Starts are seen bouncing back from an unexpectedly sharp 8.2% m/m fall in December, with a 3.6% m/m jump to 1.235 Mln, which would be respectable by any historical standard, though still bloated by post hurricane reconstruction, and potentially hemmed in by the big freeze on the Eastern Seaboard at the start of the month. Permits are expected to remain very high at an unchanged 1.30 Mln.
from Marc Ostwald
 
cantagril said:
Morning all,

After yesterday's experiment, I'm going to have another crack at the same thing, just 1 lot. I'll have a look at the RS thing over the w/e.

Anyway, EG: now long at .8870. Chart a bit bearish short term but I see there's still room for another crack at .89+. No doubt I'll get a hiding when the numbers come out at 9h30:)

Got a buy order in on GBPCHF at 1.2988 - touched but didn't get a fill because of the crap spread....
Click to expand...

GBPCHF closed on LO at 1.3008 +20
EURGBP closed manually at .8866 -4
= +16

If I'd left the EG with a sensible target, say .8890 I still wouldn't have got a fill. Still, considering that the GBPCHF was a hedge it's turned what would probably have been a losing day into a slight profit. Glass half full and all that:)


Good weekend to all.
 
cantagril said:
GBPCHF closed on LO at 1.3008 +20
EURGBP closed manually at .8866 -4
= +16

If I'd left the EG with a sensible target, say .8890 I still wouldn't have got a fill. Still, considering that the GBPCHF was a hedge it's turned what would probably have been a losing day into a slight profit. Glass half full and all that:)


Good weekend to all.
Click to expand...


yu too
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Michael Carr
  • Article
Equities Technical Analysis Testing Point & Figure Patterns
Replies
0
Views
4K
T2W Bot
T2W Bot
S
Point&Figure
2
Replies
39
Views
7K
subarashi
S
M
Point and Figure
Replies
2
Views
1K
Dentalfloss
Dentalfloss
A
Point and Figure box size for commodities
Replies
4
Views
4K
TWI
TWI
William Rafter
  • Article
Technical Analysis Point & Figure Gone High Tech
Replies
18
Views
9K
GruntnoWay
G
Top