Trading with point and figure

Dow into the open

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Morning maestro,

Long EG 1L at .8858 - looking increasingly shaky to my mind. Buy order in on GBPCHF at 1.2992
 

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- Another modest schedule despite return of US and Canada: Sweden CPI,
German ZEW and UK CBI Industrial Trends top data run; focus on US
bill and note deluge

- Sweden CPI: rather more in focus after Riksbank shift, but forecasts
suggest no pressure on Ingves & CO

- Germany ZEW: scope for expectations outlier given market volatility

- UK CBI Industrial Trends: Orders seen dipping but still strong, focus
on prices after 36 yr high in January


..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

North America may be returning to the fray of financial markets, but the day's run of scheduled data and events is again notable for its absence of market movers, though as highlighted yesterday the front end issuance 'deluge' in US Treasury Bills and Coupons could prove to be an interesting tester. In statistical terms, Sweden's CPI data take top billing, and while forecasts for a marginal rise in headline CPI to 1.8% y/y, and unchanged (core) CPIF at 1.9% y/y are hardly likely to stir the Riksbank majority into action (with Ohlson breaking ranks last week and calling for a rate hike), the fact that the statement hinted at the possibility of an H2 2018 rate hike, does put rather greater emphasis on incoming CPI and Wages data. As much as the ZEW Survey has little value in predictive terms for the economy, it is on occasion market sensitive, and with the choppier performance of the DAX over the past fortnight, the timing of survey responses may prove critical, and could see a relatively sharp outlier relative to expectations. The UK CBI Industrial Trends survey is expected to see the Orders balance dip for a second month from 14 to 11, though this would still be around the peak seen in the 2007 to early 2017, and signalling a solid pace of expansion by any historical standard. The Prices component of the CBI survey may require most attention, given that January's jump to +40 was the highest reading since December 1981, and amid plenty of anecdotal evidence that companies are 'passing through' rising input prices. Poland's run of key monthly growth indicators are expected to confirm that the economy remains in a robust growth phase. On the events side of the equation, the EU EcoFin meeting will likely see some further discussion about the post-Brexit EU budget, while the overnight RBA minutes unsurprisingly did not add offer any fresh perspectives on the policy outlook, having been largely pre-empted by the Statement On Monetary Policy (SOMP) and governor Lowe's testimony last week.

from Marc Ostwald
 
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