Trading with point and figure

dentist007 said:
eurusd

15gypgg.png
Click to expand...
supp area hit......and pump
excellent stuff
 
Morning all,

Still in my EG long from .8890....

Missed the pullback on GBFCHF to 1.2970 for a nice hedge:(
 
- Focus again on busy day for US statistics - PPI, Industrial Production,
weekly jobless claims, NY & Philly Fed surveys, NAHB Housing Index; soft
Japan Orders and mixed Australia labour report to be digested; ECB
speakers and Merkel meeting with Italy PM Gentiloni top events run;
bond auctions in Spain, France, UK and USA

- US PPI: energy seen pacing headline rise, focus on extent of start of
year price hikes after upside surprise on CPI

- US Industrial Production: headline may get boost utilities due to 'big
freeze; Manufacturing Output expected to pick up modestly, despite
drop in manufacturing hours


..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

Today's data schedule has all the semblance of being a busy, but closer inspection underlines that it is primarily all about the US, with PPI, Industrial Production, and the NY & Philly Fed Manufacturing and NAHB Housing surveys, once the overnight Japan Orders and Australian labour data have been digested. In event terms, there is ECB speak from Lautenchlaeger and Mersch, and French France Minister Le Maire and Lagarde talking about Eurozone reform, though the more interesting meeting may prove to be the one between Merkel and Italian PM Gentiloni. The latter is interesting from the perspective that the two are perhaps indicative of a political "reversal of fortune" for their respective countries. In terms of popular perceptions, German politics even at the time of reunification is personified by the concept of 'Ordnungspolitik' - stodgy, small 'c' conservativism and very short on points of excitement, and long on order and stability. By contrast Italian politics are seen as chaotic and disorderly, and an assumption that a new govt is just around the corner.... and yet, for all that, Italy remains the wealthiest of the large EU economies by a fairly large margin. Ironically Germany now looks to be heading for protracted political deadlock, with SPD, CDU and CSU all in turmoil, and the expected formation of a new coalition government far from assured, and perhaps some risk that Merkel finds herself out of office in a manner that may well echo Mrs Thatcher's demise.... the greater irony being that "caretaker" PM Gentiloni is both very popular, and may even find himself at the helm of a technocratic govt in Italy after the election (not a central scenario, but still a possibility), if the election proves to be as indecisive as polls continue to suggest. Be that as it may, there are also rate decisions in Indonesia and Egypt, while a busier day for govt bond auctions has multi-maturity offerings in Spain and France, a 2057 UK Gilt sale and a re-opening of the current US 30-yr TIPS benchmark. In terms of corporate earnings brings Air Liquide, Airbus, Schneider Electric and Vivendi, and across the pond CBS, Con Edison and Bombardier will likely be the headline grabbers.

** U.S.A. - PPI, Industrial Production, NY & Philly Fed Manufacturing **
- Following on from CPI and Retail Sales surprises yesterday, today brings a further rash of key US data. Winding back the tapes to those surprises yesterday, CPI was not only driven higher by a much stronger than expected rise in Gasoline prices, along with sticky housing prices and upward pressure on Medical Care, but also a larger than seasonally typical jump in Apparel prices of 1.7% m/m (though still down 0.7% y/y). Apparel prices have ironically been bearing down on CPI for many months, the question is how much of the January jump owes to the near 10% appreciation of the Chinese Yuan vs the dollar in H2 2017, and should markets start to think about whether China may be starting to export inflation? As for Retail Sales, the January weakness may well have down to the early month "big freeze", and as such not be a point of concern; however the downward revisions to December (also implying a downward revision to Q4 GDP personal consumption) suggest a weaker trend rate, though they may in truth be a better reflection of a typical December dip after the Black Friday / Thanksgiving surge in November - February will need to see a smart rebound to confirm that. Today's PPI would typically lose some impact value, given that it is typically published before rather than after CPI, but there may be those hoping that today's data push back a little on emergent inflation concerns. Headline PPI is forecast to rise 0.4% m/m, but this would still see it dip in y/y terms to 2.4% (vs 2.6%), and an expected modest 0.2% m/m on core PPI would also see the y/y dip to 2.0% (from 2.3%). Survey data implied a higher level of start of year price hikes than those forecasts suggest, but the official data is often not "in sync" with surveys, the more so given the immense month to month volatility of the Trade Services element.%). After a weather related 0.9% m/m surge in December, Industrial Production is expected to post a modest 0.2% m/m, with Manufacturing Output seen picking up 0.3% m/m from December's 0.1%, though the drop in Manufacturing Hours (-0.3% m/m) implies that may be a little optimistic. A gaggle of surveys NY & Philly Fed and NAHB are also due, with the manufacturing surveys seen at robust levels, while the NAHB Housing Market Index is forecast is expected to remain close to its cyclical (13-yr) high at 72, though the rise in the MBA's 30-yr Mortgage Rate to a four year high yesterday implies that some headwinds may start to emerge in this sector.

from Marc Ostwald
 
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