Dentalfloss
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Our 24535 rez work in nicely again
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Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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C
cantagril
Another 1/3 gone at .8890 and the last at .89 . Av +20 per
Boring but useful.....
Dentalfloss
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posted at 9.35am
tad bearish
Dentalfloss
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24535 area been excellent
Dentalfloss
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our 24648 rez area hit
Dentalfloss
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mornin folks
Dentalfloss
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DOW
tricky....are we in rez.....or not..??
tricky....are we in rez.....or not..??
Dentalfloss
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dittoo dax
Dentalfloss
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when in doubt...load up the p/f charts
Dentalfloss
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that is what we are interested in
Dentalfloss
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bulls are in......
but
but
Dentalfloss
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bulls could have a minor annihliation...down to 11.5K
so long as they keep above RED trendline...then all ok
#plenty of overhead rez/horizontal
so long as they keep above RED trendline...then all ok
#plenty of overhead rez/horizontal
Dentalfloss
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above 24811 should be rez
Dentalfloss
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DOW
ourv24535 pivot is aqua horizontal
ourv24535 pivot is aqua horizontal
C
cantagril
C
cantagril
Dentalfloss
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EG
Dentalfloss
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pop...??
Dentalfloss
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- Digesting rash of Japan and CEE Q4 GDP readings, awaiting Eurozone, Italy
and Poland readings, but focus on US CPI and Retail Sales; ECB speakers,
Riksbank no change and NATO meeting; Germany to sell long dated Bund
- US CPI: headline to see modest m/m boost from gasoline prices, core
to be propped as ever by OER, y/y rate seen dipping; but 6-mth
annualized rates tell a less comfortable story
- US Retail Sales: drop in Auto Sales to weigh on headline, core measures
to remain firm
- Eurozone Q4 GDP: seen unrevised following as expected German reading,
growth momentum seen sustained in Q1 and Q2
- Japan Q4 GDP: weaker than expected headline largely down to weather
related drop in Housing Investment, masking solid trends elsewhere
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A very busy day for statistics has a deluge of GDP readings from Asia and Europe, which will 'warm the plate' for the highlights of the day: US CPI and Retail Sales. There are rate decisions in Thailand and Sweden, and there will be ECB speak from two of the ECB council's hawks, Mersch and Weidmann, and on the govt bond auction front Germany re-opens its 2044 Bund. While many will dismiss the postponement of the US$ 2025 issue for Russia's GTLK/STLC yesterday due to 'broader market volatility' as being due to specific issues, like caution about Russian names due to sanctions risks, it is worth keeping a close eye on whether this was indeed a one-off, or a sign that new issuance is becoming more challenging.
** Europe - Q4 GDP **
- Today sees the second batch of Eurozone / EU Q4 GDP readings, with German GDP unsurprisingly confirmed at 0.6% q/q as was implied by the preliminary 2017 GDP, thus suggesting no revision to the Eurozone 0.6% q/q 2.7% y/y, barring a surprise from Italy, where an unchanged 0.4% q/q 1.7% y/y is anticipated. Of equal interest will be the readings from Central and Eastern Europe, which have posted consistently very strong readings in recent quarters, and that is expected to have continued into Q4, with Poland seen leading the way at 1.2% q/q, with Romania seeing a lower 0.6% q/q than the expected 1.2% q/q (but this looks to be a mean reversion after a barnstorming 2.6% q/q in Q3), Hungary a shade higher than forecast at 1.2% q/q, and the Czech Republic also seen solid at 0.7% q/q (data due Friday). As was highlighted by the Austrian National Bank earlier (OeNB) in the week, the strong momentum in the Eurozone and doubtless the broader EU, is expected to be sustained in H1 2018 with OeNB forecasting Austrian Q1 and Q2 GDP at 0.8% q/q).
** U.S.A. - January CPI / Retail Sales **
- If the consensus for CPI is correct (headline 0.3% m/m 1.9% y/y vs. Dec 2.1% y/y, core 0.2% m/m 1.7% y/y vs. Dec 1.8% y/y), then markets might take some comfort, though the whisper on the Street suggests the risks are skewed to the upside, though Treasury market specs appear to be positioning for a downside miss. Be that as it may, the consensus forecasts would still give 6-mth annualized rates for headline and core of 3.6% and 2.1% respectively, with adverse base effects kicking in in the March through June period and likely to give a sharp if transient boost to y/y rates. Retail Sales will see the drop in Auto Sales drag on the headline print (exp. 0.2% m/m), but core measures are expected to be solid (ex-Autos 0.5%, 'control group' 0.4%).
** Japan - Q4 GDP **
- At 0.1% q/q or 0.5% SAAR, this was obviously lower than the anticipated 0.2% q/q or 1.0% SAAR, but was primarily due to a big weather related drag from Housing Investment (-2.7% q/q), though there was a slower than expected though still very solid 0.7% q/q rise in Q4 CapEx (vs. forecast/prior 1.1%). Private Consumption (0.5% q/q) bounced back as expected, and should remain firm going into 2018, and with exports likely to rebound in the current quarter, there should be a a rebound. As such the weak headline in effect disguises what are much stronger details.
from Marc Ostwald
and Poland readings, but focus on US CPI and Retail Sales; ECB speakers,
Riksbank no change and NATO meeting; Germany to sell long dated Bund
- US CPI: headline to see modest m/m boost from gasoline prices, core
to be propped as ever by OER, y/y rate seen dipping; but 6-mth
annualized rates tell a less comfortable story
- US Retail Sales: drop in Auto Sales to weigh on headline, core measures
to remain firm
- Eurozone Q4 GDP: seen unrevised following as expected German reading,
growth momentum seen sustained in Q1 and Q2
- Japan Q4 GDP: weaker than expected headline largely down to weather
related drop in Housing Investment, masking solid trends elsewhere
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A very busy day for statistics has a deluge of GDP readings from Asia and Europe, which will 'warm the plate' for the highlights of the day: US CPI and Retail Sales. There are rate decisions in Thailand and Sweden, and there will be ECB speak from two of the ECB council's hawks, Mersch and Weidmann, and on the govt bond auction front Germany re-opens its 2044 Bund. While many will dismiss the postponement of the US$ 2025 issue for Russia's GTLK/STLC yesterday due to 'broader market volatility' as being due to specific issues, like caution about Russian names due to sanctions risks, it is worth keeping a close eye on whether this was indeed a one-off, or a sign that new issuance is becoming more challenging.
** Europe - Q4 GDP **
- Today sees the second batch of Eurozone / EU Q4 GDP readings, with German GDP unsurprisingly confirmed at 0.6% q/q as was implied by the preliminary 2017 GDP, thus suggesting no revision to the Eurozone 0.6% q/q 2.7% y/y, barring a surprise from Italy, where an unchanged 0.4% q/q 1.7% y/y is anticipated. Of equal interest will be the readings from Central and Eastern Europe, which have posted consistently very strong readings in recent quarters, and that is expected to have continued into Q4, with Poland seen leading the way at 1.2% q/q, with Romania seeing a lower 0.6% q/q than the expected 1.2% q/q (but this looks to be a mean reversion after a barnstorming 2.6% q/q in Q3), Hungary a shade higher than forecast at 1.2% q/q, and the Czech Republic also seen solid at 0.7% q/q (data due Friday). As was highlighted by the Austrian National Bank earlier (OeNB) in the week, the strong momentum in the Eurozone and doubtless the broader EU, is expected to be sustained in H1 2018 with OeNB forecasting Austrian Q1 and Q2 GDP at 0.8% q/q).
** U.S.A. - January CPI / Retail Sales **
- If the consensus for CPI is correct (headline 0.3% m/m 1.9% y/y vs. Dec 2.1% y/y, core 0.2% m/m 1.7% y/y vs. Dec 1.8% y/y), then markets might take some comfort, though the whisper on the Street suggests the risks are skewed to the upside, though Treasury market specs appear to be positioning for a downside miss. Be that as it may, the consensus forecasts would still give 6-mth annualized rates for headline and core of 3.6% and 2.1% respectively, with adverse base effects kicking in in the March through June period and likely to give a sharp if transient boost to y/y rates. Retail Sales will see the drop in Auto Sales drag on the headline print (exp. 0.2% m/m), but core measures are expected to be solid (ex-Autos 0.5%, 'control group' 0.4%).
** Japan - Q4 GDP **
- At 0.1% q/q or 0.5% SAAR, this was obviously lower than the anticipated 0.2% q/q or 1.0% SAAR, but was primarily due to a big weather related drag from Housing Investment (-2.7% q/q), though there was a slower than expected though still very solid 0.7% q/q rise in Q4 CapEx (vs. forecast/prior 1.1%). Private Consumption (0.5% q/q) bounced back as expected, and should remain firm going into 2018, and with exports likely to rebound in the current quarter, there should be a a rebound. As such the weak headline in effect disguises what are much stronger details.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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eurusd
