Trading with point and figure

- U.K. inflation data in focus; US NFIB survey, Japan Q4 GDP and IEA oil
market report also due; Italy kicks off busier week for Euro area
debt auctions; Fed's Mester speaks

..........................................................................

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** EVENTS PREVIEW **
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A rather busier day on the statistical side, with Japan's PPI AND French Q4 Wages to digest ahead of the highlight of the day, i.e. the full gamut of UK monthly inflation indicators, with the US offering NFIB Small Business Optimism ahead of tonight's Japan Q4 GDP. Holidays will again thin trading in some parts of the world with Mahashivratri in India, and Carnival in Latin America and Germany (not an official/market holiday). In event terms, Fed's Mester speaks, while oil markets will be looking to the IEA's oil market report, which follows on from OPEC still expecting global oil demand to rise more than Non-OPEC supply this year, which continues to be at odds with EIA and IEA. Notably OPEC revised up its estimate of Non-OPEC supply growth to 1.3 Mln bpd, but this is way short of the previous IEA estimate of 1.7 Mln, which may be revised higher. In that respect, a hat needs to be doffed in the direction of Russian Energy Minister Novak for this gold star bit of "trolling" yesterday: "Novak says while U.S. imposes sanctions, investors from Asia boosted investment in Russian energy sector by 10%". Be that as it may Italy kicks off this week's busy week for Eurozone government bond sales with EUR 7.75 Bln of 2, 6, 26 & 30-yr BTPs, while US corporate earnings highlights include Martin Marietta, MetLife, Pepsico and Under Armour.

** Jan/Feb edition of 'The Ghost in The Machine'**:
https://content.yudu.com/web/400wi/0A400wk/JANFEB2018/html/index.html

** U.K. - January CPI, RPI & PPI, December ONS House Prices**
- Following on from the seemingly less accommodative BoE policy meeting and inflation report, the UK has the full gamut of its inflation indicators. Forecasts imply that there will be few if any signs that the elevated levels of inflation are ebbing. CPI is expected to drop 0.6% m/m, but only edge down to 2.9% from 3.0%, while core CPI is seen down 0.9% m/m, implying an uptick to 2.6% from 2.5%, while RPI is forecast at unchanged at 4.1%. PPI requires some attention given widespread reports of businesses having to pass through rises in Input Prices (exp. 0.8% m/m 4.3% y/y vs. Dec 4.9%), though forecasts for Output Prices look for a marginal 0.2% m/m rise, and a drop in y/y terms to 3.0% from 3.3%.

** Japan - Q4 GDP **
- Japan's Q4 GDP is expected to decelerate to just 0.2% q/q or 1.0% SAAR vs. Q3's 0.6% and 2.5% respectively. This would mark the best run of sequential growth since the 1986 to 1989 period, which offers a noteworthy perspective. In the detail, Business CapEx projected at a very solid unchanged 1.1% q/q, Private Consumption to rebound 0.4% after dropping 0.5% q/q in Q3, but with external demand making no contribution, and construction will also likely be a drag, largely as a function of bad weather effects.


from Marc Ostwald
 
DUH......dunno
difficult

a1u3ye.png
 
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