Trading with point and figure

lining up

2n1w5s2.png
 
Went back to sleep, had a short from 13k just closed it now! Lol

Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk
 
All eyes on US labour report, UK Construction PMI, ECB and Fed speak
accompany another burst of corporate earnings

- UK Construction PMI: seen little changed, some risk of negative contagion
from Carillion collapse, stalled public sector investments

- US Payrolls: read across from ADP to Payroll rarely a good one in January,
though other anecdotal indicators imply some modest upside risks

- US Average Hourly Earnings: consensus looks for 'average' m/m rise to
edge y/y rate modestly higher, no pressure on Fed

- Charts: US, German and Japan 10-yr yield: US IG and HY corp bond spreads,
US 'Junk' Bond ETF and JPM EMBI yield spread

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

It's the first Friday of the month, so it's US labour report day (aka 'Payrolls bingo', though this is something of a misnomer currently), and there is little else statistically, outside of the UK Construction PMI, which may be impacted by the collapse of Carillion, and Italian CPI, which may turn out slightly higher than expected given slightly higher than expected Eurozone CPI. The first round of post-FOMC Fed speak via way of Kaplan (2018 non-voter) and Williams (voter), both on the hawkish side of the committee. Earnings highlights are likely to include AstraZeneca, BT, Deutsche Bank, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Merck & Co and Sprint. Once the US labour are absorbed, some of the focal points for next week will be Services PMIs/ISM, Chinese Trade, German Orders, Japan Wages, plenty of Fed speak and a peak week for Q4 earnings reports, with the added tester of the US 3, 10 & 30-yr quarterly refunding.

** U.S.A. - January labour market report **
- As has been previously observed, the once might Non-Farm Payrolls component of the monthly labour data, that was once the behemoth of US official statistics, despite it being both erratic and subject to major revisions, is currently rather more secondary, with pride of place going to Average Hourly Earnings. Be that as it may, January's very hefty seasonal adjustment to Payrolls often leaves the ADP measure looking 'red faced' with misses of up to 100K, as such the ADP's much better than expected 234K, which follows an only marginal revision to December to 242K, despite Payrolls being much weaker at +146K, is best treated with great care. The very choppy profile to Initial Claims (226K in survey week, sandwiched between a 261K and 231K) does not help much, though a broad array of surveys do point to very robust labour demand, and by extension upward revision risk for December. The Unemployment Rate is seen unchanged at its cyclical low of 4.1% for a fourth month, while the key Average Hourly Earnings are forecast to post a 'military medium' 0.2% m/m rise that would edge the y/y rate up to 2.6% from 2.5%, a healthy pace, but certainly not one that puts the FOMC under pressure in terms of its rate trajectory.


from Marc Ostwald
 
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