Trading with point and figure

usdcad
you can see breakout area clearly
yu can also see area with most ink/balancing row in p/f
also see prev reaz at 1.2620 /poss supp on upside failure
only load 1 week of data
all seen from the other side of the room
 
eugbp 30 min bars
yu can see breakout area...pump or dump
only load 2 week sof data
yu can quite clearly see 0.8980 rez area..that became a supp
 
that is what i call visual optimisation
you are only loading and pinpointing the important areas
 
Moneylender said:
Thought I would have an early morning ride and a puncture 5 miles out, new tyre required.
Click to expand...
Bugger, what a pain, I've been there recently too!
I literally just dropped my bike off at the shop, my chain broke last week mid-acceleration and the steel grippers on the pedal shredded the back of my calve - and then I had to walk it home :(

Dax'y ready to pump on US opening?
 
eur crosses all in rez
eurjpy
eurgbp
eurusd

they have come off the boil a tad
all lookin bullish
 
- Digesting UK BRC Retail Sales, China and German Trade, awaiting US NFIB
Small Business Optimism and JOLTS Job Openings; South Africa no confidence
vote, EIA S-T Energy Outlook, API Crude inventories and earnings the other
points of focus

- UK BRC Retail Sales: jump in food prices accounts for positive reading,
otherwise weak

- China Trade: premature to suggest this signals slowdown, rather more a
correction after strong June

- German Trade: as with Industrial Production, a case of mean reversion
after mostly strong gains since start of year

- South Africa no-confidence vote: secret ballot heightens speculation
about Zuma exit, but ANC likely to close ranks

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

In statistical terms, the focus will primarily be on the overnight run of China Trade, UK BRC Retail Sales, Japan Current Account and Economy Watchers (services) survey and German Trade, with the US schedule being distinctly 'second division' via way of NFIB Small Business Optimism and JOLTS Job Openings. The non-statistical schedule has the EIA's Short-term Energy Outlook and the Zuma 'no confidence debate and vote in South Africa, though the latter is expected to fail, even if the unexpected secret ballot has many speculating that this may finally signal the end for Zuma. All the signals from the ANC however suggest that it wants to send a strong signal that Zuma's lies in the hands of its executive, and not parliament; the ZAR could therefore be subject to another bout of volatility. However whether any of this can generate much market excitement in broader terms is dubious, given that there appears to be little appetite for anything other than the Pavlovian 'job preservation' investment strategies of 'buy the dip and reach for yield and duration'. Oil markets will be eyeing both the EIA Short-term Energy Outlook, above all in terms of global oil demand and for signals on US output, and the weekly API inventories data, with Crude stocks seen down 2.8 Mln bbls, Gasoline -100k and Distillates off 1.5 Mln.

In terms of the overnight run of data, the deceleration in UK BRC Retail Sales was slightly better than expected, but as the BRC measure is a value not a volume measure, and the BRC noted that sales were boosted by higher food prices, there is scant comfort to be taken from the marginal beat relative to forecasts, particularly as the increase at 0.9% y/y was so weak. The smaller than expected gains in China' exports and imports has as usual been seized upon by the doom and gloomsters as a signal that China's economy will slow quite sharply in H2 2017. A proper perspective would view the July readings in the context of the much better than expected June readings, and note that across most commodity categories, be that copper, iron ore, coal, soy or oil, the average for the two months has been around the current trend level. Indeed as has oft been very evident, volumes are very frequently a function of price trends, and the Chinese are nothing if not traders. Throw in the fact that commodity imports tend to a seasonal slowdown in Q3, and the assertion that this data signals a weaker underlying growth trend starts to look faintly ridiculous. Eminently those that are unable to escape the shackles of apophenia will note that not only did Chinese trade data show a marked slowdown, but so did the German edition, with Exports much weaker than expected at -2.8% m/m vs. forecast 0.2%, with Imports dropping 4.5% against a forecast of 0.2%. As with yesterday's unexpected weakness in Industrial Production, these falls follow strong gains in most months this year, and as such this again looks to be a case of mean reversion. There may be some that interpret this slowdown as being a function of the stronger Euro, which would be particularly crass given that actual export and import volumes are a function of purchasing decisions made many months in advance, and the fact that the EUR averaged around 1.12 in June. The US NFIB Small Business Optimism index has been drifting lower after surging to a high of 105.9 after Trump's election, but at an expected 103.5 (vs. June 103.6) remains far above November's 98.4 and an average 94.4 in Q3 2016.

from Marc Ostwald
 
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