C
cantagril
It's uncanny - if I close my eyes you could be a real Spaniel!
...but fwiw I think Faliraki is somewhere more Grexitish than the Costa del Wossname.
So glad that your P&Fing is in a different league to your geography
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- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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It's uncanny - if I close my eyes you could be a real Spaniel!
...but fwiw I think Faliraki is somewhere more Grexitish than the Costa del Wossname.
So glad that your P&Fing is in a different league to your geography
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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DAX Fri Close, still going opposite to DOW but bulls are more confident now
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Dow is just at silly highs now and does not conform to anything!
Dentalfloss
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Mornin folks
Dentalfloss
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posted Friday at 10.30 am
22136 the high overnight
22143 area hit....we should be at or near rez
22096 first support area
Dentalfloss
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dax
first move
12320 pump or dump
lets see
first move
12320 pump or dump
lets see
Dentalfloss
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ftse in rez
7525 area..better
7525 area..better
Dentalfloss
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lookin like all 3 index in rez
Dentalfloss
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eurgbp retesting rez
0.9050 area
0.9050 area
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eurjpy rez
131.60 was prev supp.....poss rez
131.60 was prev supp.....poss rez
Last edited:
Dentalfloss
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- Quiet start to the week in statistical terms, German Production data to
digest; China FX reserves and some Fed speak and corp earnings ahead
- Germany Industrial Production: unexpected fall best not over-interpreted,
more a case of mean reversion after run of often strong gains
- Week Ahead: US/China inflation, China & Europe Trade, Europe Production
and Japan Machinery Orders top data schedule
- Week Ahead: Fed speak and expected no change, neutral RBNZ in focus
- Week Ahead: OPEC technical meeting and rash monthly IEA, EIA & OPEC
monthly reports; busy week for commodity sector conferences
- Week Ahead: Trump woes and geo-political tensions still casting a
long shadow; South Africa no-confidence vote
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
While the week as a whole has plenty of statistical highlights (see preview below), today is rather short on highlights, with German Industrial Production, Chinese FX Reserves and the distinctly second division UK Halifax House Prices the only features, along with yet another report underlining that UK Consumer Spending continues to face stiff headwinds. Some will doubtless offer the almost inevitable likely fall in the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence as a signal that Euro area economic indicators are now at risk of downside surprises after a long run of upside surprises. One simple observation is that this and the equally pointless German ZEW Expectations are so closely correlated with the performance of major stock indices as to beg the question why does anyone pay attention to them, when all they tell us is how stock indices have performed over the past month? Perhaps in passing, it is worth keeping an eye on the broader array of FX reserves data, on which there are plenty of reports data, in so far as Asian (and other) FX reserves are clearly on a rising trend, given that FX reserve accumulation was the QE zero of the first decade of the century. Per se the current rise will also serve to act as something of a counterweight to both Fed balance sheet reduction, and indeed ECB tapering. The run of weekend political news also requires attention, notably signs that the UK govt and the EU may finally be talking to, rather than at each other, and the compromise agreement between ASEAN and China on "code of conduct" talks for the South China Sea, underlining the degree to which US influence in the region is increasingly being ceded to China.
In respect of the unexpected 1.1% m/m fall in German Industrial Production, this looks to be a case of mean reversion, given this follows a very robust run of 1.7%, 0.7%, 0.2%, 1.5% and 1.2% monthly gains. To suggest it marks a trend change would be extraordinarily premature, the more so given the post re-unification record high in the Ifo Business Climate.
Recap - The Week Ahead: 7 to 11 August 2017
- It will be a busy week for economic data around the globe, even if President Trump's woes and geo-political tensions (perhaps most notably North Korea) continue to cast a long shadow, while South Africa has the Zuma no confidence vote to contend with. Corporate earnings will remain plentiful, while oil markets have an OPEC/Non-OPEC technical committee meeting as well as EIA, IEA and OPEC monthly oil market reports, with Agricultural commodities awaiting the USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates.
- Statistically, US and Chinese CPI and PPI readings and Chinese Trade data are likely to be the highlights, with the UK and continental Europe also looking to a raft of Industrial Production and Trade reports, while Japan publishes the latest Private Machinery Orders data. With energy prices rebounding, US CPI is expected to post a long-term average rise of 0.2% m/m, which would see headline CPI finally post a rebound to 1.8% y/y (vs. June 1.6%) having peaked at 2.7% in February, while core CPI is seen unchanged at 1.7% y/y. China's CPI is expected to be unchanged in y/y terms at a subdued 1.5% for a third month, while PPI is expected to edge up to 5.6%, having peaked at 7.8% y/y in February. Having easily beaten forecasts in May and June, Chinese Trade data are expected to see Exports moderate to a still robust 16.6% from June's 17.2%, with Imports dipping to 10.9% from 11.3%, with the extent of a seasonal dip in commodity demand likely to be the primary point of focus.
- In central bank terms, there are a number of Fed speakers this week, with NY Fed's Dudley likely to be key, and in the UK there will be particular focus the latest Bank of England Agents' Summary of Business Conditions, given very mixed signals on the economy, and indeed the policy outlook. There is no currently scheduled ECB speak this week, with the next key event likely to be Draghi's speech at Jackson Hole on August 24th. Elsewhere, New Zealand's RBNZ is seen keeping rates steady at 1.75%, and specific focus on what is said recent NZD strength, given that inflation remains subdued, and recent comments from governor McDermott suggesting that "a lower real exchange rate would help rebalance growth towards the tradables sector, especially as not all traded industries are benefiting from the current high terms of trade." Policy meetings in Argentina, Mexico, Peru, the Philippines, Serbia and Zambia are expected to see rates left unchanged.
- In the commodity space, outside of the energy space, the week sees a number of conferences including the Kalgoorlie Diggers & Dealers mining forum, Jefferies' 2017 Industrials Conference and India's World Biofuel Day conference.
- The US heads the list of govt bond auctions for the week with its $62 Bln quarterly refunding (3, 10 & 30-yr), while the Eurozone sees a seasonal typical drop in issuance volumes, with Austria offering EUR 1.1 Bln of 6 & 30-yr paper, and Germany selling EUR 4.0 Bln, with Italy having as usual cancelled its mid-month BTP sale. The UK seels £1.0 Bln of 2026 Index-Linked Gilts, while Japan sells JPY 800 Bln of 30-yr JGBs.
- On the earnings front, the Retail sector will be amongst those in particular focus, with JCPenney, Kohl's, Macy's and Nordstrom all reporting this week, with Blue Apron, News Corp, Nvidia, Priceline Group, Snap and Walt Disney among the other highlights in the US. In the resource sector, Glencore, Petrobras and beleaguered Noble Group results will attract plenty of attention, while elsewhere E.on, Prudential, Softbank, SunLife Financial, Tata Motors, ThyssenKrupp and Toshiba are also due to report.
- In market terms, the key questions look to be whether Friday's modest recovery on the back of the US labour report signalled a turning point for the politically beleaguered dollar, with the latest CFTC CoT data seeing the net short USD position rising to $5.32 Bln (prior $3.92 Bln), the highest since May 2016. Or whether this was just a case of a modest volume of short-covering ahead of the weekend. Fading market breadth, above all in the Nasdaq, will have many questioning whether the US stock rally has run out of steam. Corporate bond issuance is likely to be relatively subdued.
from Marc Ostwald
digest; China FX reserves and some Fed speak and corp earnings ahead
- Germany Industrial Production: unexpected fall best not over-interpreted,
more a case of mean reversion after run of often strong gains
- Week Ahead: US/China inflation, China & Europe Trade, Europe Production
and Japan Machinery Orders top data schedule
- Week Ahead: Fed speak and expected no change, neutral RBNZ in focus
- Week Ahead: OPEC technical meeting and rash monthly IEA, EIA & OPEC
monthly reports; busy week for commodity sector conferences
- Week Ahead: Trump woes and geo-political tensions still casting a
long shadow; South Africa no-confidence vote
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
While the week as a whole has plenty of statistical highlights (see preview below), today is rather short on highlights, with German Industrial Production, Chinese FX Reserves and the distinctly second division UK Halifax House Prices the only features, along with yet another report underlining that UK Consumer Spending continues to face stiff headwinds. Some will doubtless offer the almost inevitable likely fall in the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence as a signal that Euro area economic indicators are now at risk of downside surprises after a long run of upside surprises. One simple observation is that this and the equally pointless German ZEW Expectations are so closely correlated with the performance of major stock indices as to beg the question why does anyone pay attention to them, when all they tell us is how stock indices have performed over the past month? Perhaps in passing, it is worth keeping an eye on the broader array of FX reserves data, on which there are plenty of reports data, in so far as Asian (and other) FX reserves are clearly on a rising trend, given that FX reserve accumulation was the QE zero of the first decade of the century. Per se the current rise will also serve to act as something of a counterweight to both Fed balance sheet reduction, and indeed ECB tapering. The run of weekend political news also requires attention, notably signs that the UK govt and the EU may finally be talking to, rather than at each other, and the compromise agreement between ASEAN and China on "code of conduct" talks for the South China Sea, underlining the degree to which US influence in the region is increasingly being ceded to China.
In respect of the unexpected 1.1% m/m fall in German Industrial Production, this looks to be a case of mean reversion, given this follows a very robust run of 1.7%, 0.7%, 0.2%, 1.5% and 1.2% monthly gains. To suggest it marks a trend change would be extraordinarily premature, the more so given the post re-unification record high in the Ifo Business Climate.
Recap - The Week Ahead: 7 to 11 August 2017
- It will be a busy week for economic data around the globe, even if President Trump's woes and geo-political tensions (perhaps most notably North Korea) continue to cast a long shadow, while South Africa has the Zuma no confidence vote to contend with. Corporate earnings will remain plentiful, while oil markets have an OPEC/Non-OPEC technical committee meeting as well as EIA, IEA and OPEC monthly oil market reports, with Agricultural commodities awaiting the USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates.
- Statistically, US and Chinese CPI and PPI readings and Chinese Trade data are likely to be the highlights, with the UK and continental Europe also looking to a raft of Industrial Production and Trade reports, while Japan publishes the latest Private Machinery Orders data. With energy prices rebounding, US CPI is expected to post a long-term average rise of 0.2% m/m, which would see headline CPI finally post a rebound to 1.8% y/y (vs. June 1.6%) having peaked at 2.7% in February, while core CPI is seen unchanged at 1.7% y/y. China's CPI is expected to be unchanged in y/y terms at a subdued 1.5% for a third month, while PPI is expected to edge up to 5.6%, having peaked at 7.8% y/y in February. Having easily beaten forecasts in May and June, Chinese Trade data are expected to see Exports moderate to a still robust 16.6% from June's 17.2%, with Imports dipping to 10.9% from 11.3%, with the extent of a seasonal dip in commodity demand likely to be the primary point of focus.
- In central bank terms, there are a number of Fed speakers this week, with NY Fed's Dudley likely to be key, and in the UK there will be particular focus the latest Bank of England Agents' Summary of Business Conditions, given very mixed signals on the economy, and indeed the policy outlook. There is no currently scheduled ECB speak this week, with the next key event likely to be Draghi's speech at Jackson Hole on August 24th. Elsewhere, New Zealand's RBNZ is seen keeping rates steady at 1.75%, and specific focus on what is said recent NZD strength, given that inflation remains subdued, and recent comments from governor McDermott suggesting that "a lower real exchange rate would help rebalance growth towards the tradables sector, especially as not all traded industries are benefiting from the current high terms of trade." Policy meetings in Argentina, Mexico, Peru, the Philippines, Serbia and Zambia are expected to see rates left unchanged.
- In the commodity space, outside of the energy space, the week sees a number of conferences including the Kalgoorlie Diggers & Dealers mining forum, Jefferies' 2017 Industrials Conference and India's World Biofuel Day conference.
- The US heads the list of govt bond auctions for the week with its $62 Bln quarterly refunding (3, 10 & 30-yr), while the Eurozone sees a seasonal typical drop in issuance volumes, with Austria offering EUR 1.1 Bln of 6 & 30-yr paper, and Germany selling EUR 4.0 Bln, with Italy having as usual cancelled its mid-month BTP sale. The UK seels £1.0 Bln of 2026 Index-Linked Gilts, while Japan sells JPY 800 Bln of 30-yr JGBs.
- On the earnings front, the Retail sector will be amongst those in particular focus, with JCPenney, Kohl's, Macy's and Nordstrom all reporting this week, with Blue Apron, News Corp, Nvidia, Priceline Group, Snap and Walt Disney among the other highlights in the US. In the resource sector, Glencore, Petrobras and beleaguered Noble Group results will attract plenty of attention, while elsewhere E.on, Prudential, Softbank, SunLife Financial, Tata Motors, ThyssenKrupp and Toshiba are also due to report.
- In market terms, the key questions look to be whether Friday's modest recovery on the back of the US labour report signalled a turning point for the politically beleaguered dollar, with the latest CFTC CoT data seeing the net short USD position rising to $5.32 Bln (prior $3.92 Bln), the highest since May 2016. Or whether this was just a case of a modest volume of short-covering ahead of the weekend. Fading market breadth, above all in the Nasdaq, will have many questioning whether the US stock rally has run out of steam. Corporate bond issuance is likely to be relatively subdued.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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ftse more bullish than dax
7560 poss on cards
7560 poss on cards
Dentalfloss
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12320
pumped first
then dumped it
excellent pivot
pumped first
then dumped it
excellent pivot
Dentalfloss
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ftse in our 7525...will ir become rez..??
Dentalfloss
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dax bounce
12310 prev supp on 1 min bars..poss rez
12310 prev supp on 1 min bars..poss rez
