Trading with point and figure

dow....lookin to see if we have a top in
pivotalpivots did say a couple of months back that it would top over the summer
 
looks like atop
chart comin
 

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- North Korea / US tensions in focus, though market reaction modest outside
of KRW; China CPI, PPI to digest ahead of Italy Production, BoE Agents'
Reports, US Productivity & Mexico CPI; EIA oil inventories, German, US
bond auctions

- Geo-politics aside, pendulum appears to be swinging to positive economic
surprises - JOLTS and NFIB Hirings / Selling Prices worthy of note

- RBNZ: no change expected, neutral s-t policy outlook focus on NZ$ comments

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

As the tensions rise on the Korean peninsula, this and thin summer trading conditions may well militate against any of today's data and events having anything more than a passing impact. Statistically the overnight China CPI and PPI offered no surprises, while ahead lies Italian Industrial Production, primarily of interest given that Italy has of late been leading the way on upside data surprises in the Eurozone, along with the highly volatile, and frequently revised US Q2 Productivity and Labor Costs, with Mexican CPI rounding off the schedule. The latter will serve as a reminder of why Banxico is not in a position to start thinking about introducing an easing bias, despite the MXN's recovery. On the policy agenda, the BoE's (regional) Agents Reports demand particular attention against a backdrop of mixed reports on the economy, and indeed a rather unclear outlook for BoE policy. Fed's Bullard will doubtless offer few fresh insights on the policy outlook, and will likely reiterate that he expects low inflation to lead to a lower rate trajectory than the 'dot plot' assumes, but that he is in favour of getting on with Fed balance sheet reduction. On the govt bond auction front, Germany sells EUR 4.0 Bln 5-yr and the US continues its quarterly refunding with $23 Bln of a new 10-yr Treasury Note; EIA oil inventories are also due and follow the much larger than expected 7.8 Mln API Crude inventories drawdown. Markets do appear to be at risk of being caught by a sharp about turn in the USD's fortunes, as US data shows signs of the pendulum swing back to positive economic surprises, most notably yesterday with a massive surge in JOLTS Job Openings mirroring a fresh cyclical high in the NFIB's Hiring Intentions (see attached), with the latter also seeing a new cyclical high in Selling Prices.

New Zealand's RBNZ meets this evening and is seen keeping rates steady at 1.75%, with specific focus on what is said recent NZD strength, given that inflation remains subdued, as does wage growth. The most recent comments from governor McDermott suggested that "a lower real exchange rate would help rebalance growth towards the tradables sector, especially as not all traded industries are benefiting from the current high terms of trade."


from Marc Ostwald
 
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