Trading with Fibonacci retracement

vanillaman said:
You collect the data yourself, like I said, I am not in defense of it. There was a certain famous trader who visited oracles to get trading decisions. Lol. Anyway, the tool does a simple thing it takes an impulse then measures it. Like anything if that impulse was presumably caused by real money moving the market then any pullback can suggest either a forced liquidation due to new information or the order flow has changed, either way the call is easier to make once the impulse has been corrected to half its initial move. This is just logic...
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There's no reason to collect the data unless one has some reason for doing so, other than boredom. As there is nothing logical about any of it, there's no motivation to collect data.

Retracements can be deep, shallow, and all points inbetween. The key to trading them profitably comes from an understanding of the behaviors of the various classes of traders, where "support" and "resistance" lie, and judging the imbalances between supply and demand against the level of activity. Fibs have nothing to do with it, nor does any other indicator.
 
How to calculate fibo driven volume

Does anybody have an idea on how to estimate volumes traded based on fibo levels by all types of traders? Or are there any surveys that can help to estimate the importance of fibos in FX? If there are not such surveys may be we can organize it among trade2win traders community?

Thanks very much for your inputs!
 
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XTX said:
Does anybody have an idea on how to estimate volumes traded based on fibo levels by all types of traders? Or are there any surveys that can help to estimate the importance of fibos in FX? If there are not such surveys may be we can organize it among trade2win traders community?

Thanks very much for your inputs!
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The guys who run forex live are always referencing Fibs, I know a few multi-million traders who manage a several hundred million and they reference fibs, so I don't think we need much estimating but. I guess you can observe the tick volume at critical fib points. To be honest I am an Options trader, so my risk is lower, so if the market looks shaky at fib level I pull the trigger, I know volatility can be extreme at those levels, can't tell you why but I have tripled my premium many times coming out of daily fib levels. So each to his own.
 
vanillaman said:
The guys who run forex live are always referencing Fibs, I know a few multi-million traders who manage a several hundred million and they reference fibs, so I don't think we need much estimating but. I guess you can observe the tick volume at critical fib points. To be honest I am an Options trader, so my risk is lower, so if the market looks shaky at fib level I pull the trigger, I know volatility can be extreme at those levels, can't tell you why but I have tripled my premium many times coming out of daily fib levels. So each to his own.
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In 5 trillion daily market even 100 millions are not impressive. Also take into account that

1. Around half of the market is long and the other half is short, and fibos for those will be different by level and trades in opposite direction
2. People draw fibo levels differently by choosing different extreme points on the chart

As a result there will be lots of different levels that are used by small part of market participants (say maximum 5 %) and may be in a different time. Impact of these trades will be very unconcentrated and mainly balanced.

Probably only those levels that enjoy significant consensus among traders will be really important. But the question is how to differentiate those ones from the others.
 
Fib is the only thing you need - and that is damn good starting advice for a noob.

Don't believe me? Look at my trading record here on this site. I don't lose. Time-stamped entries and exits... I'm willing to help.
 
XTX said:
How about the article below? It shows rigorously that Fibonacci levels have no more significance compared to other levels.


http://forexop.com/strategy/fibonacci-fact-or-fiction/
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With all due respect... what is an article vs. real time, actual, verifiable results?

Rigorous? Sure. But all the author is "showing" is they're frustrated they haven't found the proper application of the fib. Call it a myth all you want. The proof is in the pudding.

I'm not writing articles. I'm trading and winning. I've no inclination to break down the article. It is misguided from the onset. Just... Trade.
 
j.n said:
With all due respect... what is an article vs. real time, actual, verifiable results?

Rigorous? Sure. But all the author is "showing" is they're frustrated they haven't found the proper application of the fib. Call it a myth all you want. The proof is in the pudding.

I'm not writing articles. I'm trading and winning. I've no inclination to break down the article. It is misguided from the onset. Just... Trade.
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I don't think the author is frustrated. It is the opposite, he is very confident that fibos are myth. Unless you have robust argument against his research, I am inclined to accept his opinion. Could you please tell us a little bit more how you use fibos?
 
XTX said:
I don't think the author is frustrated. It is the opposite, he is very confident that fibos are myth. Unless you have robust argument against his research, I am inclined to accept his opinion. Could you please tell us a little bit more how you use fibos?
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While running the risk of sounding rather brash, I'd like to direct you to my trading record on this site. You can find my trades in my member profile, under stats ... I only post in the two threads I have started. I use fibonacci. I've won every trade (well, besides 1... I have posted 1 loss on this site because I was unable to post my exit at the time of exit, and there fore had to "concede" a loss because it would not have been time-stamped.) So, from my standpoint, any notion that fibonacci is a "myth" is rather silly - because I use it, and it works. But might I extend an olive branch here - the presumptive "use" of the fibonacci he's referring to is ineffective and I would thusly say his argument is correct. I find it very difficult to explain how I use fibs without directly exposing my methods. Might I suggest finding another application aside from what the article assumes?
 
XTX said:
In 5 trillion daily market even 100 millions are not impressive. Also take into account that

1. Around half of the market is long and the other half is short, and fibos for those will be different by level and trades in opposite direction
2. People draw fibo levels differently by choosing different extreme points on the chart

As a result there will be lots of different levels that are used by small part of market participants (say maximum 5 %) and may be in a different time. Impact of these trades will be very unconcentrated and mainly balanced.

Probably only those levels that enjoy significant consensus among traders will be really important. But the question is how to differentiate those ones from the others.
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All pros use fib,is one of the most important issues in markets,the only problem is that you should know how to use them and i dont know if there are any --teachers --gifted enough around to help you, you are on your own in this.
Its ridiculous for someone to claim that fibs dont work.
Of course its man made if it was nature gifted like ellioticians claim it wouldht work.
 
I believe the concept behind fibs is ratios that merely print a predicted zone where price might naturally draw towards. The key point is zone and not clear cut levels (nothing in technical analysis is clear cut - there are always ifs, buts, whens, and depends mixed in)
 
nero1 said:
All pros use fib,is one of the most important issues in markets,the only problem is that you should know how to use them and i dont know if there are any --teachers --gifted enough around to help you, you are on your own in this.
Its ridiculous for someone to claim that fibs dont work.
Of course its man made if it was nature gifted like ellioticians claim it wouldht work.
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A. Not all pros use Fibs. More likely none of them do.

B. One could argue that it's "ridiculous" for someone to claim that Fibs don't work. But it's hardly ridiculous to expect someone who claims that they do to come up with some evidence of it, e.g., Fibs plotted on 100 charts and a tally kept of how many of these lines are touched by price, to the tick. Any takers?

Caveat neophytus
 
dbphoenix said:
A. Not all pros use Fibs. More likely none of them do.

B. One could argue that it's "ridiculous" for someone to claim that Fibs don't work. But it's hardly ridiculous to expect someone who claims that they do to come up with some evidence of it, e.g., Fibs plotted on 100 charts and a tally kept of how many of these lines are touched by price, to the tick. Any takers?

Caveat neophytus
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The problem with fibonacci is to know how to use them,and very few know how,so this discussion can be endless,if you dont know how to use them how will you say if they are useful or not..

I am not offending you in any way,you may be an excellent trader,but you have your own beliefs in trading based in what you know and you may not know how to use fibbonaci.
 
nero1 said:
The problem with fibonacci is to know how to use them,and very few know how,so this discussion can be endless,if you dont know how to use them how will you say if they are useful or not..

I am not offending you in any way,you may be an excellent trader,but you have your own beliefs in trading based in what you know and you may not know how to use fibbonaci.
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Very few know how? It isn't rocket science I could teach my 4 year old to pot retracements and extentions
 
dbphoenix said:
A. Not all pros use Fibs. More likely none of them do.

B. One could argue that it's "ridiculous" for someone to claim that Fibs don't work. But it's hardly ridiculous to expect someone who claims that they do to come up with some evidence of it, e.g., Fibs plotted on 100 charts and a tally kept of how many of these lines are touched by price, to the tick. Any takers?

Caveat neophytus
Click to expand...
Its very easy to prove to you that fib works,i will not bother to do it of course,someone can be profitable only by using fibs as ressistance and support without other methods.
 
nero1 said:
The problem with fibonacci is to know how to use them,and very few know how,so this discussion can be endless,if you dont know how to use them how will you say if they are useful or not..

I am not offending you in any way,you may be an excellent trader,but you have your own beliefs in trading based in what you know and you may not know how to use fibbonaci.
Click to expand...

Doesn't have anything to do with belief. As I said, plot Fibs on 100 charts and keep a tally of how many of these lines are touched by price, to the tick. Simple arithmetic. If price touches these lines only more or less or sort of or generally, then explain of what value they are.
 
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