Proving that Fibonacci retracements have an edge...

Whilst I think fibs are to some extent and possibly even to a large extent self fulfilling

They can only be self fulfilling if people use them. In stocks I know that traders pay attention to R pivots. In FX, out of a) those that are in the market for speculative purposes b) those that can move the market, who uses a fib for their trades? Until I get an answer for that (and I'm not saying there isn't one) it's all just cloud patterns to me and the fib is a retrospective curve fitted representation of natural market interaction.
 
It may well be retrospective and curve fitted to you - but for those that use them in realtime they are a useful tool and for eg I for one went long earlier today as a result of the confluence of that 61.8% 6077 (average of 6074 and 6080 swings) - 6300, Daily S1 and the previous 4hr/1hr swing lo zone and the set-up that developed there.

I guess there is no emperical absolute to suggest how useful they are one way or the other and hence participants retain polarised views about them..


G/L


They can only be self fulfilling if people use them. In stocks I know that traders pay attention to R pivots. In FX, out of a) those that are in the market for speculative purposes b) those that can move the market, who uses a fib for their trades? Until I get an answer for that (and I'm not saying there isn't one) it's all just cloud patterns to me and the fib is a retrospective curve fitted representation of natural market interaction.
 
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I guess there is no emperical absolute to suggest how useful they are one way or the other and hence participants retain polarised views about them..


G/L

Yeh TBF you trade and I'm a student :)

Still, out of those that can move the market, who uses a fib?
 
Fibonacci retracement levels are consistent. The issue is that most people have not developed the skill as to how to interpret what it is they are observing and/or, how to even use the tools correctly. Not a slam against anyone - just a fact.

Anyone who has taken the time to backtest will see that there are consistencies between Fib retracements/extensions and the size/length of a wave. Yes, there are market aberrations, but the consistency of levels reached is there.

Fibonacci patterns are not just some "made up" methodology. The entire universe is based upon the Golden Mean ratio of 618 in the cycle of formation and movement of matter. The formation of market waves as a response to repeatedly confirmed human emotional response patterns has been well established and proven. Elliott wave theory is also based on this principle.

However, again, most people do not understand how to identify wave formations and account for aberrations that occur (even the aberrations themselves follow Fibonacci and Elliott principles. (One can observe these aberrations in nature in what are referred to as "deformities")

Experienced and skilled traders understand that any indicator is simply a means to confirm what is being observed. Fibonacci retracement and extention targets used in conjunction with candle formations and Elliott wave rules and perhaps a calibrated oscillator will increase the potential of making a winning trade decision.

Some traders say they don't bother with using Fibonacci tools. But that is only because they have, by whatever means, developed an "eye" to spot the natural Fibonacci retracement levels and Wave patterns without using them.
 
A book that explains it well is "Fibonacci Ratios and Pattern Recognition" by: Larry Pesavento there might be a free PDF around if you look.
 
Look sometimes they work, sometimes they don't

If you are looking at Fib ratios, then it would make sense looking at other geometrical levels - such as the SQUARE, CUBE, GOLDEN RECTANGLES etc all of which can be derived from the mathematics of the Great Pyramid

By doing this you then have a lot of lines on your chart - but you'll never know which one is going to stop a retracement - sometimes you'll get an exact hit and sometimes it will slightly miss - I've spent 1000's of hours researching over the past 15 years!

The same applies with TIME levels too

There is absolutely no doubt the markets MOVE and WORK to GEOMETRICAL ratio's and if you do the basics with a profit to risk ratio of 3:1 then over time trading those levels should prove profitably

So "IF" the markets are BUILDING or WORKING out to some GEOMETRICAL form, how do you KNOW where you are in the structure? The answer is you simply do not

BUT................................................

Sometimes you can make some pretty outstanding calls

This is the SP500 Index up to 2022 - I was calling for a TOP (I don't publish my work so you'll have to accept the date of the charts and reasoning)

Prediction RED BOX for BOTH TIME & PRICE levels - YELLOW box on chart top left = prediction date I published the chart to a friend

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The above was based on the following - details in/on the charts

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The LOW PRICE turned into TIME

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Backing up this theory we also had the DJIA PRICE LOW in 2009 converting into FIBONACCI TIME multiplications of the low price!

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We also had alternative time cycle (far left of the pic) suggesting a top/high from STATIC time cycles

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There was also Gann angles suggesting a top

720 is a geometrical number being 2 x 360 degrees of the circle - Gann often talked about 360 degrees and its multiples

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Oh be in no doubt that those Gann Angle lines are actually PLANETARY lines - Gann disguised the true meaning of his angles (which is why you can't get his angles to work properly on your charts) - Remember we are an Insignificant part of the Universe, it ain't there for fun or no reason

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Anyway - 1902% / 190.2% / 19.02% / 1.902% etc is the GEOMETRICAL RATIO of a GOLDEN RECTANGLE (which is why we sometimes get Fibonacci ratios seen)

2828% / 282.8% / 28.28% / 2.828% etc is the GEOMETRICAL RATIO of the SQUARE (which is why you often see 50% ratio levels)

I can understand if you get overwhelmed by all this - It has taken me years to understand it all and I am still learning!

Look at the SP500 2009 LOW PRICE of 666.79 points

WHY did it stop there?

Well from the 2007 high it fell 57.69% - prove it to yourself

57.7% is a ratio of the CUBE - it is also Tan30 which is the TANGENT of a circle @ 30 degrees

GEOMETRY GEOMETRY GEOMETRY

and if you are not mesmerised by the fact that in 1962 the SP500 KNEW to grow @ 6.666 pts per month, which would YEARS later transpire into a high of the market and the price of 666 pts would be hit by a geometrical angle off the 6.666pts per month of 1962 then nothing will

So to answer this question - that is why sometimes Fib levels show up and sometimes why they don't - it ALL depends upon what GEOMETRICAL STRUCTURE is being built by the market
 
I've met many advocates of using Fibonacci retracement levels in ones trading who claim that these levels 'work' but offer no actual evidence that they do.

Can anyone 'prove', or even offer some evidence that Fibonacci retracement levels actually work?

I've done a couple of little tests of Fibonacci retracement levels and it appears that (on large time frames at least) they are fairly significant and therefore could be said to 'work' -
Trading Fibonacci Retracements
Trading Fibonacci Retracements II

Has anybody else done any tests that they'd like to share? I'm looking for actual evidence that these levels are statistically significant and that it therefore means something when the price reaches them. So, can anybody help 'prove' that Fibonacci retracements work?

I've made a living with fibs for a long time. You're welcome to follow my process and results here. https://www.trade2win.com/threads/t...ng-fibs-for-entries-stops-and-targets.242542/
 
I've always wondered why use Fibonacci?

1 - You can determine high probably SR levels with fibs, where breaks or holds are often important.

2 - You can design a system that trades the exact same RR every single time. Regardless of asset of volatility. Trading one fib to another is always the same ratio.

3 - Fib extensions can project resistance areas into all time highs. The only forward looking indicator I know for that.

4 - If you test fib strats in 1920s action they work and they work today. That's a good time spell. I only need about 10 yrs. Fancy my odds.

5 - Ultimately, I make money. Had to work out a few bugs along the way but then started making good money. So long as I do, I'll continue using them.
 
The first thing you may want to look at is doing the same analysis with lines put in at 'random' percentages.

I am sure the results will be enlightening...

This is a popular thing to say but I'd be willing to lay 1,000:1 odds against you being able to randomly generate as important levels as I can with fibs over 100 levels.
 
I've taken the time to read through most of this thread and tl;dr is:

"I like fibs, this is some of the ways I make money with them".

Or;

"I've never used fibs, here's my rant on why you should not bother to try either".


And to fair, this is a broad reflection of how things often go. Those using fibs love them and people who don't tell us not to use them because they don't.
 
I spoke about big RR hunting. This is a possible situation for that.

Here we break it into a few sections.

1 - The 76 is a possible low. Wait and see what happens.
2 - If there's a reaction, drop to small charts and look for retracement entries.
3 - Stop goes under recent small chart low.

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This gives a 1:12 trade. And many times, if the 1:4 works here the 1:12 also does.
 
I said for big RR hunting we need a reason to believe the move will be strong and not choppy with big pullbacks.

We can support that here because if this is the start of an up move then this drop is the big pullback.

If and when this ends we should have another impulse leg to take out the high.
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So we have an entry level which may be accurate.
We have a way to tighten stops to increase RR.
We have a reasonable expectation of a flowing move.

Which makes it worth trying high RR trades. They don't all work, but not many have to.
 
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