Four trades today:
BIIB -10c
ERTS +24c
INTU -6c
AAPL +$2.65
The AAPL one was the most interesting.
Price gapped up and ran to $75, had a few attempts to breach it, failed,came back to the Fibonacci 50% retracement at 74.77 (good stuff Naz !). Looking at the chart all you can see is the price falling....... However charts are not the whole story and my micro analysis of the detailed price action showed buying support building at this level so I went long as shown on the first chart. A pure chartist would be horrified at going long there ;-) I do think you have to see the whole picture, not just one piece in the mosaic.
It was very unlikely that support at that level was going to fail and it didn't. Had it done so I would have been out for a loss of, at worst, a few cents as on today's two losing trades.
That was my risk. The reward was unpredictable so the R/R could not be guessed at.
Again the actual probability of failure was low and the probability of success high - factors most people do not even consider when they think about R/R - they tend to believe it's 50/50......
I did not run this trade as a quick scalp type move because I could see from the micro analysis of trades printing off, buy and sell pressures, and the behaviour of the market participants that there was probably more momentum left.
Two hours later it reached $77.56 then the balance of probabilities changed and was no longer one sided as the factors which made me go long at the Fib level reversed and as it slipped to $77.42 I exited for a profit of $2.65.
Less than an hour later it had another attempt to push north and was again met with resistance and failed at the same level.
Currently it is in a range which might offer another decent opportunity if it breaks up or breaks down out of that range.
I hope someone finds the above useful.
Richard