Trading the SPX

[jm99]

I'm having a hard time understanding your post. Any time the 50 got close to the 200 since 2004, it was a wonderful time for the bulls.

i posted this chart and comment (elsewhere) at start of june (dosent take into account 14/6 low, but principel still applies....

"looking at the bigger picture, im sure the longer term players will be looking at this.....the uptrend has resumed in this bull after a dip under the 200 daily sma, where we are now. also we've had the atr pickup, a characteristic of the previous lows."

 

[jm99]

what i was alluding to was that on this fall the declining 50 sma will likely cross the declining 200 sma, aka a death cross. the last time this happened (for the sp continuous contract, ) was oct 2000. i am not counting the aug 04 cross as the 200 sma was still rising. Like i said the cash markets are lagging.

if we do cross it is one more nail in the coffin for this bull market and if the cash markets follow i will be selling the rallies with both barrels

 

[ajaskey]

I don't think much of the price action. My guess at this point is that we test the lows in the next several weeks.

 

[erierambler]

I don't think much of the price action. My guess at this point is that we test the lows in the next several weeks.

How's that Andy? It appears only Technology dragged down price......there could be some bullish divergence here. Early bulls got flushed out.

erie

 

[ammo]

brokerage

hi first timer here im looking for a good day trading e firm to use for s2p s any suggestions ?

 

[ammo]

s and p

How's that Andy? It appears only Technology dragged down price......there could be some bullish divergence here. Early bulls got flushed out.

erie

spus market profile on thursday last wweek was value area of1263 or 4 the institutions have to hold a new position for ten days tha would put theere earliest real sell off on 7/13 or 7/14 ithink it will stay above 1263 until then todays dow selloff was 43percent MMM

 

[ajaskey]

How's that Andy? It appears only Technology dragged down price......there could be some bullish divergence here. Early bulls got flushed out.

erie

erie,

There isn't much in the current charts for me to make a short term projection. I watch the SP500 COTS commercials and they are buying below here and becoming more net short as we go up. It would be rare to make a sustained run with the SP500 COTS commercials moderately net short at the beginning of the run.

 

[erierambler]

erie,

I watch the SP500 COTS commercials and they are buying below here and becoming more net short as we go up. It would be rare to make a sustained run with the SP500 COTS commercials moderately net short at the beginning of the run.

Thanks Andy. On my daily chart there appears to be some selling, but it could be deceiving...... There also is not many net highs- lows. Less than two day's ago.

erie

 

[ajaskey]

Thanks Andy. On my daily chart there appears to be some selling, but it could be deceiving...... There also is not many net highs- lows. Less than two day's ago.

erie

erie,

It is possible there is no selling AND no buying (see small volume last week). The pros could be agnostic at this point. Markets like that usually go down until prices make the pros interested again.

 

[ammo]

two halves

Hi chrisw,
I can see no earthly reason why such an approach should not work as well as any other approach. Effectively the US markets trade to some degree in two halves, (it's a game of two halves ) The morning session and the afternoon session, separated by the "lunchtime doldrums" Trading the whole day it is often useful to view the day as in efffect two separate days, you may get a move in the morning session which may see follow through in the afternoon, or may see a reversal in the afternoon. The lunchtime period characterized by relatively light volume can almost be viewed as a kind of composite of the normal pre-market / after hours session where some speculative players may position themselves for what they believe the afternoon will bring.
Hope that makes sense.

Heres a chart of the last 2 1/2 days INDU

i trade the spx and at 11 am in chicago the market will reverse slightly, doesnt matter up if were going down,down if we were in a rally, the specialists in new york lighten thier positions and take lunch

 

[erierambler]

erie,

It is possible there is no selling AND no buying (see small volume last week). The pros could be agnostic at this point. Markets like that usually go down until prices make the pros interested again.

Nice analysis Andy.

erie

 

[ammo]

dow went thru support at 10700 to 10683 spus went thrusupport at 1230 to 1224 they rallied off a beakthru to 10799 and 1246 , im baffled ?

 

[ajaskey]

dow went thru support at 10700 to 10683 spus went thrusupport at 1230 to 1224 they rallied off a beakthru to 10799 and 1246 , im baffled ?

The SPX and SOX both have time cycles up on next Monday. That should be interesting.

 

[ajaskey]

The SPX and SOX both have time cycles up on next Monday. That should be interesting.

The longer term SPX is squaring out the 52 week cycle the following week.

 

[ammo]

The longer term SPX is squaring out the 52 week cycle the following week.

thanx for the reply dont understand these charts research

 

[ajaskey]

thanx for the reply dont understand these charts research

The SOX and short term SPX are the easiest to understand. Price changes direction (or accelerates) at 50% and 100% of the previous move. In most cases, when you draw the square of the range you will see that price stopped or bounced off exactly 50% of the move in 50% of the time it took to make the range. Going forward you can "guess" the next move will do about what the previous move did in time. Price often likes to "squareout" at 0%/50%/100% of the previous move. If you get close in time and see price starting to move towards one of those levels then you can trade in that direction until time is up.

Also, when you are in a good move and there is a pause, then you can consider that this pause is half way to the final price destination and the second move will take exactly as long as the first half took.

 

[Hook Shot]

With markets bouyant out of the gate - the general set up - lower high amongst all the geopolitics makes me think a CRASH in indices is now probably more than 50% likely. I'm not saying it will but the signs are there .......... Spx 1252

 

[jm99]

nice charts aj. lot of time stuff coming up next week. looks like it will be a high now

 

[ajaskey]

The SOX and short term SPX are the easiest to understand. Price changes direction (or accelerates) at 50% and 100% of the previous move. In most cases, when you draw the square of the range you will see that price stopped or bounced off exactly 50% of the move in 50% of the time it took to make the range. Going forward you can "guess" the next move will do about what the previous move did in time. Price often likes to "squareout" at 0%/50%/100% of the previous move. If you get close in time and see price starting to move towards one of those levels then you can trade in that direction until time is up.

Also, when you are in a good move and there is a pause, then you can consider that this pause is half way to the final price destination and the second move will take exactly as long as the first half took.

A high reward low risk trade this morning with a short period of time remaining and a move towards the 50% price line.

 

[ammo]

grat call great chart is that your invention or is ther some info i can get on it please keep em comin!!!